I think semester 1 i got similar to you in MM, sem 2 I got much worst. This year I'm doing 3/4 and doing relatively brilliant. Physics likewise. As per my MM1/2 teacher's report, 'a change in attitude will go a long way'
I intend to apply for UMEP physics on the exact same basis as you. From what I've asked here before and the UoM website, you can do a test to check if you're suited. Apparently it's easy, but tbh I have no real knowledge of it.
I've acquired the textbook for the UoM physics subject, and there is a bit of calculus in it. How present this is in the UoM course, I do not know. If you can make sure you have as good an understanding of calculus as you can, I'd imagine you'll be ok.
My understanding is it's more of an issue getting numbers for a class than it is to limit them, so apply and I'd be surprised if there was a huge issue regarding grades.