I honestly don’t even think self driving cars will make up a majority of the cars on the road for at least 15 years.
Majority? Yes, I probably agree. Unless it becomes a serious safety issue and humans are banned from driving full-stop (it has been suggested). I was just trying to keep it within a manageable time-frame.
Interestingly, we had a debate about this through school the other day...
I personally agree with Lear. They aren't a feasible reality within the next decade, just because of the sheer volume of cars currently on our roads.
Automatic cars are interoperating with human drivers right now in some parts of the world.
By volume, I meant that we probably would not be able to replace every car on the road with Electric cars, just because of how many there are, and obviously travel distances etc.
I'm not sure why self-driving cars have to be electric? But I agree that complete replacement of every car on the road is a difficult endeavour, no matter how good the technology is.
I mean, I don't think volume has anything to do with it? If anything, the addition of self-driving cars that can communicate with each other would allow for MORE cars to hit the roads. You wouldn't have start-stop traffic - the car in front of you would tell your car it's moving, so your car will know that it can move. The problem with a large body of cars at the moment is that we can't do that, and so rely on what we see (not what the other drivers are thinking) to make our decisions.
But surely that is only possible if every single car on the road is driven by computers? It's not easy to do big bang changes like that.
Theroetically, this would be great. Way more efficient traffic. But it's also a massive risk - what about if a rogue car sends bad directions to other cars? Or what if the network drops out, or is deliberately jammed? Current self-driving car technology is based on interoperating with humans without
trusting them - but that also allows it to interoperate with other self-driving cars without having to trust them.
I do, however, believe that self-driving cars would lead to speed limits staying the same. Partly because I believe you will still be required to know how to drive in the case of your car malfunctioning and the AI not being trustworthy to drive, but also because a lot of speed limits are based on what speed a vehicle can safely move at, not what its driver can control and respond to (eg, turn a corner too fast, you will tip - it doesn't matter how good of a driver you are. It's just physics)
If you always see a need for humans to be driving, then I'm not sure you can have the nice efficient platoons. It's also potentially a lot of extra hardware in the car that is theoretically there for a human to talk to the computer, but is never actually used. And when the time comes to use it you find it failed six months ago and you never noticed.
I hope you're not suggesting that humans will still be sitting in the driving seat ready to take over when the computer mysteriously fails five hours into a journey. Because we know that doesn't work - it's a questionable strategy even in the Tesla semi-automatic modes...