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April 20, 2024, 10:52:13 pm

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 47085 times)  Share 

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K888

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #15 on: July 20, 2020, 09:30:25 pm »
+6
I don't know if I'm being overly optimistic, but is there any good news?
Whilst we're in the midst of quite a large increase in cases, us slowing down infections allowed our hospitals to prepare for COVID patients. Now the hospitals are well prepared and have enough equipment, etc. so with more patients coming into hospital they're able to receive a high quality of care and we're not short of beds or staff or drugs. The health system can deal with this (although we need to make sure we continue social distancing and being responsible to make sure our health system can continue to deal with this).

Whilst it's a really scary time we can be really happy and thankful with how well Australia has managed this compared to a lot of other countries.

There's also good news in terms of possible treatments coming through - you can read about the trials involving remdesivir, inhaled heparin, convalescent plasma, dexamethasone, etc. that are taking place worldwide (including at many hospitals in Australia) and showing some promising results in terms of helping treat really sick patients!

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #16 on: July 20, 2020, 11:08:06 pm »
+1
You don't have to wear a mask when exercising, and instructions say that it's fine to not wear a mask outside if you're by yourself. You should still carry a mask with you (see above link) however so that it can be donned when you can't social distance anymore/have stopped exercising.

This looks to me like the old version - for example, it still talks about it not being recommended for under 18 (rather than under 12 as the new one), and it says there's no enforcement (technically true for now, but taken with the other point probably shows it's just out of date).  I'd prefer it if they'd just made those old recommendations mandatory because I agreed with more of their provisions...

Have been wearing a mask in a physically active retail job for a few weeks with no issues. Idk what kind of heavy breathing people do to make their masks wet? If super concerned about your mask effectiveness, put a new one on at the supermarket, or maybe wear a scarf when walking to the supermarket and change to your surgical mask at the supermarket. The most important thing is that it's providing a physical barrier, and also reminding you to not touch your face. Might be time to switch your behaviours and opt to just walk to the supermarket if concerned about the implications exercise have on the effectiveness of your mask.

I remember early on (e.g. months ago) reading 15 minutes presented as a magic number, but on reflection that was probably about single-layer, bandana type protections and not the multi-layer masks including water-resistant layer we are recommended.  I wasn't speaking from personal experience of a mask getting wet.  So probably my misunderstanding?

The point of masks is exactly that - it doesn't guarantee your safety, but it's better than nothing, similar to the 1.5m rule.

Even though transmission risk decreases outside when compared to indoor environments, there is still some risk present. Sure, it's a mild inconvenience to wear a mask (especially the exercise thing), but it's much better than wearing none at all. I agree that masks should not be compulsory when exercising, however I think it definitely should remain compulsory in any outdoor environment. The virus can very easily hang around in the air if someone with the virus coughs/sneezes/talks, so wearing a mask can help prevent them from spreading it.

There will always be another risk that can be mitigated, and most such mitigations come with a cost.  Speaking purely probabilistically, the overall risk is much more likely to be reduced by mitigating a few significant risks (such as limiting public gatherings, requiring work and education from home where possible) than by mitigating a large number of small risks.   And at some stage, the costs of mitigating a risk are going to exceed the potential benefits (though where that stage is is obviously debatable).  I also suspect though am not sure that you get better public compliance with the big picture public health items if people don't get bogged down in lots of little details.

One of the things that has really frustrated me about the entire conversation around Covid-19 over the last few months is how frequently this has been ignored.  Instead, discussion has often just focused on the cost, and if it is deemed sufficiently low then that's an acceptable sacrifice to demand (whether or not it is actually effective at reducing the public health risk).  People who question those restrictions are cast as entitled whingers, sometimes as people who just want to fill our ICUs with patients, overload our health system, and kill people.  It's a classic false dichotomy.  The running debate about golf courses and fishing over the first lockdown was a good example. Neither of them are my hobbies, but I thought it quite likely that both could easily be practiced with negligible risk, and thus that it didn't matter how low the cost of giving them up was: The cost outweighed the benefit, and it was not reasonable to say that people who wanted to play golf wanted to put people in ICUs (though I think that was said or at least implied).  And, lo and behold, this time round both those activities are permitted because they are now considered low risk.  Throw in my repeated comment that I don't think people sufficiently factor in the effect of luck both on where transmission happens and how big a particular spike can grow, and it becomes much more difficult to say what effect each restriction had on the overall outcome.

That's general frustration, not intended as a criticism of you specifically.  How it relates, though, is that in my situation I consider my exercise already a low risk activity, performed in a council in the far east with a very low number of (known) active cases, and with route and time chosen to try and minimise meeting other people (for reference, the last three times I have been out for exercise I have seen exactly two people, and had no difficulty distancing from them).  As a result, I consider the benefit to the community at large of me wearing a mask while outdoors so vanishingly close to zero that it doesn't matter if the cost to me is low: It still outweighs the benefit, and there is no way reading the previous guidelines that I would even have considered wearing a mask recommended for my outdoor activities (grocery store etc. - yes, I did wear mask).  Me working from home and avoiding all public and family gatherings has a far greater reduction in the risk of me both catching and spreading the disease than almost any combination of other measures.

On reflection, though, it's perfectly possible that most people have more contact with others when outdoors than I do...

Quote
I'm actually all for wearing facemasks outside the home for the reasons I've outlined above. If the point is to minimise the spread of the virus, then this is a step in the right direction. I'm unaware if Vic/Aus is going for the elimination strategy or the suppression strategy, but either way, wearing face masks will help prevent some of the spread. Especially things like community transmission due to catching COVID from random people as you go about your day.

Brett Sutton has talked about the possibility of elimination, but that has to be a national discussion, and last week it was sounding like both the PM and the NSW Premier didn't think elimination achievable or sensible (personally, I agree with driving it as close to zero as possible, but the wrong combination of human error and bad luck means I'm not sure elimination is ever 100% possible.  Some of what people talk about as "elimination" sounds to me more like "aggressive suppression").  In practical terms, though, I don't think we're going to want to keep the Vic/NSW border closed longer than we can help, so I can't see us going for elimination unless they do.  And their current restrictions seem to allow much larger gatherings than we were allowing at the end of June...

No hat no play? No mask no play - end of story.

I agree with Dan Andrews today that making masks mandatory is not a human rights issue (so long as there are appropriate exemptions for medical reasons, which there are). At the same time, the rules are put in place to achieve a specific purpose, and the restrictions should be proportionate to the benefits gained.  Doesn't mean I won't follow the rules, just that I question their effectiveness in certain situations.
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #17 on: July 21, 2020, 02:43:02 pm »
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-9
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #18 on: July 21, 2020, 03:05:11 pm »
+12
And by the way - I do think that people in the past would've done better with this because they had faith in God - something that this society nowdays has distressingly walked away from.
I don't think 'distressingly' was the right word here... You do not need to believe in God(s) to have faith - the two are related but not inseparable. I don't understand why you think people embracing a life void of religion/God now is a bad thing. There is a lot to talk about here, but to remain pertinent to the thread, I'll abstain. To each, their own, and faith need not always be in God.

People were more law-abiding, too, when there was a reason other than fines for them to be law-abiding; they acknowledged (where now people don't) that God was in control and that we should please him. Not to mention the general societal shifts have been almost universally negative in recent years, seems to me. No offence meant to specific people.
I don't know how far back in history you are referring to. However, I can say with confidence that in the past, punishments were worse. People were forced to abide by laws (some good, some not so good!). The past definitely would be horrible in this situation. In the past, people with mental disorders were locked in mental asylums. Doctors performed transorbital lobotomies for no apparent reason in many cases. Bloodletting to cure disease was a thing back then. Because back then, they did not have the knowledge and technological advances that we have today. Today, we recognise that mental health is a thing as it becomes less taboo in society. Today, we are working towards finding relevant cures for diseases instead of using random treatments that are now scientifically incorrect. I think that's a pretty good societal shift, don't you? People who feel their mental health is spiralling downwards amidst the flurry of the pandemic can get help. People who are infected with the virus self-isolate, and those with serious symptoms get external support.

Just because in the past people more stringently abided by law and religion, doesn't mean they would be better placed in this situation. I'd say quite the opposite. I doubt they would have even detected this pandemic until it was too late. Today, we are in a much better position to deal with things the past would have struggled to rationally analyse and solve. Sure, some bad decisions have been made and some people decide not to behave appropriately, but as a country, we are much better placed than some other places in the world. Globally, some even more bad decisions have been made, but I really don't think it would have been any better in the past.
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #19 on: July 21, 2020, 03:21:34 pm »
+13
Generally the case with introverts... ;)
And by the way - I do think that people in the past would've done better with this because they had faith in God - something that this society nowdays has distressingly walked away from. What can they expect then? Faith in God, for one thing, will reduce anxiety about the pandemic, because we know that God is in control and we won't end up all dead forever. People were more law-abiding, too, when there was a reason other than fines for them to be law-abiding; they acknowledged (where now people don't) that God was in control and that we should please him. Not to mention the general societal shifts have been almost universally negative in recent years, seems to me. No offence meant to specific people.
This viewpoint is extremely subjective. It's an opinion, and one with no respect for fact and history. A faith in God is the reason many people are not following guidelines and pushing back against restrictions in the present; the most notable case being America. People use faith in God for their own convenience - cherry-picking, if you will, what is best for themselves and putting everyone around them at risk. Using faith as an excuse to ignore scientific protocol is naive and ill-educated.

The past was not perfect either; I'm not sure if you've gotten to year 9 history yet, but the Black Plague of the 1340's killed 25 million people, approximately one third of Europe's population in that time. That's 1 in 3 people dead, most of whom believed in a God. Crime rates are irrelevant to the discussion. We're at a much better place now because of research and constant progress in medical fields, as well as societal advancement.

Evidence of this advancement includes the Australian Government's investment of $66 million in research for a COVID-19 vaccine. Quote health.gov.au on the 2nd June:
Quote
There are four target areas of research:

Investing in a vaccine for COVID-19
Investing in antiviral therapies for COVID-19
Clinical trials of potential treatments for COVID-19
Improving the health system’s response to COVID-19 and future pandemics

The projects outlined here build on $14.4 million of previously announced COVID-19 research investment, including into improving the way we diagnose the virus and how we care for patients with COVID-19.

Anyone have any information on newer research outcomes for a treatment?
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #20 on: July 21, 2020, 04:18:51 pm »
+2
Faith in God, for one thing, will reduce anxiety about the pandemic, because we know that God is in control and we won't end up all dead forever.

I mean, y'know, unless this is another flood situation

The past was not perfect either; I'm not sure if you've gotten to year 9 history yet

Dude, you definitely could've been 100% less insulting in this statement.

Evidence of this advancement includes the Australian Government's investment of $66 million in research for a COVID-19 vaccine. Quote health.gov.au on the 2nd June:
Anyone have any information on newer research outcomes for a treatment?

I don't think we'll be seeing newer research outcomes for another month or so - 1.5 months is extremely short for scientific research, even in a pandemic. Note that people have been working on this since March and earlier, and even now we still aren't 100% sure on how those will turn out even after skipping some of the ethical steps required for testing. Hopefully by the end of next month we'll have an idea of what drugs will be most effective in fighting COVID-19.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #21 on: July 22, 2020, 02:57:12 am »
+1
And by the way - I do think that people in the past would've done better with this because they had faith in God - something that this society nowdays has distressingly walked away from. What can they expect then? Faith in God, for one thing, will reduce anxiety about the pandemic, because we know that God is in control and we won't end up all dead forever. People were more law-abiding, too, when there was a reason other than fines for them to be law-abiding; they acknowledged (where now people don't) that God was in control and that we should please him. Not to mention the general societal shifts have been almost universally negative in recent years, seems to me. No offence meant to specific people.

Hmm.  I ignored the bait on religion on a different thread, but can't help feeling it coming up a second time means this is specifically targeted at me.  Without wanting to derail this conversation further, I'd point out that I've seen quite a few Christians talking about Covid-19 online, and I would say many of them are not just concerned but terrified, particularly in places like the US with far greater community spread than us.  And they have every right to be - it's an uncertain and scary situation.  The expectation that Christians should be less (visibly) anxious about difficult situations has been a serious mental health burden for some people I know.

While circumstances obviously change, I think it likely human nature is relatively constant over generations, so I'd be surprised if we're seeing a huge difference in compliance from other eras.  People have always been good at justifying themselves deviating from standards, some more than others and some with more consequences than others.  Right now (for obvious reasons) we are seeing lots of comparisons to the Spanish flu of 100 years ago.  I'm not a historian and have not tried to put every 1919 story and meme in context, but it seems clear that not everyone followed the rules, and that people got sick of restrictions and flocked out after restrictions loosened, leading to a second wave.

I have come to believe as a generalisation that intrinsic motivations work better better than extrinsic motivations, whether those extrinsic motivations are rewards like public approval, money, or the approval of God or whether they are punishments like fines, public shaming, prison, or the disapproval of God.  In other words, people doing things because they think it the right thing to do or because they want to.  It's a very limiting and (I would say) negative view of humanity that people only do the right thing because of fear of external punishments like fines.  It isn't true of me, and I'm pretty sure if I did a (remote) poll of my office I'd find the majority of my co-workers are fairly compliant because they're trying to do the right thing and because they want to keep themselves and their friends and relatives as safe as possible, not because they might be fined.
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #22 on: July 22, 2020, 09:43:32 am »
-2
turin - FYI it wasn't trying to 'bait' you, just to get your opinion, if you see the difference... there was a difference... I simply wanted your opinion.
Hmmm, I don't think people liked what I said. And maybe I could have said it better; I meant no personal insult. I was not meaning in the middle ages, by the way. I was meaning a couple of generations ago.
There won't be another flood situation; God promised there wouldn't be. Also I said 'forever'; I meant, if you have faith in God, and are baptised, abide by his commandments, etc., then even if you die of the virus you'll be in the kingdom of God forever.
People use faith in God for their own convenience - cherry-picking, if you will, what is best for themselves and putting everyone around them at risk.
Unfortunately, I would partly agree with you. However, I was meaning the people who really believe in the Bible and the whole of the teachings, and truly try to do what God tells us to, not for their own convenience. Also, I'm curious to know where you found/what you found about the faith meaning people push against restrictions?
Just out of interest, has everyone (Christian, I mean) missed that teaching back in the first five books (I can't recall which) about if people are unwell, they need to self-isolate? This teaching was way ahead of its time. The Law said if people were sick, to isolate themselves! I can't help feeling that this whole thing wouldn't be nearly as much of a problem if people did follow that - even if it was only the people who did believe in the Bible who did it.
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brothanathan

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #23 on: July 22, 2020, 12:56:05 pm »
+1
There seems to be conflicting views on religion here, hampering the debate and potentially steering it off topic. Some believers see their religion as more of relationship than a set of dogmatic principles. So, the assertion of it being in some ways draconian, is not exactly feasible in many cases. In terms of their approach towards our current crisis, some Christians may even see this as opportunity, and that we should be grateful for this challenge. They may also be able to derive what these certain times are teaching us or reminding us of. Whether it's the teachings in the bible, decisions in history, personal lessons etc.  In a nutshell, they can find meaning to why certain things have happened like Covid... and why we are still here and why we must continue in this life.
« Last Edit: July 22, 2020, 12:59:01 pm by brothanathan »

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #24 on: July 22, 2020, 01:08:45 pm »
0
So, the assertion of it being in some ways draconian, is not exactly feasible in many cases..
I don't understand what you mean?
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #25 on: July 22, 2020, 01:39:46 pm »
+6
-snip-


Hey Cat, let's please keep the discussion of religion to a minimum in this thread. If you would like to discuss any points further, my inbox is always open. :)



Today the Victorian state's cases have hit an all time high at 484. According to the Premier's address this afternoon, 53% of people who tested positive overnight did not self isolate in the interim between testing and results.

1800 675 398 was also the number given to call for a financial support package of $1500 for people who normally wouldn't be able to afford to isolate.
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #26 on: July 22, 2020, 01:57:47 pm »
+1
did not self isolate in the interim between testing and results.
I'm curious to know - what do they define as self isolation? If, hypothetically someone has symptoms of any description, are they meant to isolate even if for other reasons they are not getting tested at the time - and does it change when they do get tested? Are they allowed to go out of the house at all? And if they have medical reasons why not to wear a mask, is that ok, does it change anything?
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #27 on: July 22, 2020, 02:07:08 pm »
+6
Today the Victorian state's cases have hit an all time high at 484. According to the Premier's address this afternoon, 53% of people who tested positive overnight did not self isolate in the interim between testing and results.

1800 675 398 was also the number given to call for a financial support package of $1500 for people who normally wouldn't be able to afford to isolate.
Also from 3810 cases between 7th-21st of July approximately 90% of people (3400 cases) didn't isolate between feeling sick with symptoms and getting the test which is very concerning.

Obviously, this is not about blaming anyone. There is a lot of talk about the reasons for this being financial due to casual and insecure work. The support package doesn't fix everything but hopefully more widespread knowledge of it will get more people staying home when sick.

I'm curious to know - what do they define as self isolation? If, hypothetically someone has symptoms of any description, are they meant to isolate even if for other reasons they are not getting tested at the time - and does it change when they do get tested? Are they allowed to go out of the house at all? And if they have medical reasons why not to wear a mask, is that ok, does it change anything?
If anyone is sick the only reason you should be going out is to get tested. Then you should go straight back home without doing anything else.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #28 on: July 22, 2020, 02:53:40 pm »
0
If anyone is sick the only reason you should be going out is to get tested. Then you should go straight back home without doing anything else.
What about exercise?
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #29 on: July 22, 2020, 02:55:04 pm »
0
I don't understand what you mean?


I don't wish to clarify it, as it's off topic. Feel free to PM though.