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May 18, 2024, 07:42:21 pm

Author Topic: Study Score Calculator (open beta)  (Read 45634 times)  Share 

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keltingmeith

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Re: Study Score Calculator (open beta)
« Reply #30 on: January 10, 2021, 01:31:35 pm »
+5
So, update - I think I can call the calculator a moderate success!

There are some scores it just cannot predict - for example, a Further study score of higher than 45 - and I'm not quite sure how to fix that (yet). However, it CAN accurately predict up to about 42 without any problems - but these problems are only with Further. Some other subjects, like methods, it seems to extremely accurately predict study scores, no matter how high or low they seem to be. This makes sense for a lot of mathsy reasons I'm not going to go into right now, but means I'll likely feel very comfortable potentially walking away from the project this year and let it self-manage.

Firstly, some disclaimers: this calculator only works if the grade distribution for the next year is similar to the grade distribution data it's using (right now, this is the data for 2019). However, this turnaround has shown that the distributions should be similar enough each year that you can still use the old data to numerically predict the new data. This makes sense, because that's how our current users predict study scores already. They use what they know about the subject, and what marks usually correlate to what scores, to estimate what study score you would get with the marks you have. For that reason, I believe that this calculator is about as accurate as any user on the website, with some small exceptions.

Right now, there's only one exception I've managed to find. That one is Further - if your GAs are all higher than 95%, then your score will be underestimated. Between 90% and 95% seems a slight grey-zone, where I'm not too sure. Most other subjects seem to be pretty well predicted, even on the higher end of things. Most importantly, the calculator is really good for scores between 20 and the low-mid 40s for every subject, which is where most people will be scoring.

If I had more time, I would design the calculator to use special error bounds for different subjects, so I could properly release the calculator - but I don't have the time for what was simply a pet project.

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After all of that, simple conclusion - anybody doing year 12 in 2021, you can rest easy that this calculator seems to be an accurate predictor. So, if you really want to predict your study scores throughout the year and to see if you're on track, then you should be fine using this tool.

But also, please read the instructions. The constant e-mails requesting access got really annoying after a while - it might not seem like much on your end, but at one point I got like 10 e-mails all in one day, my phone actually vibrated so hard it yeeted itself off my desk.

Mackenzie Aps

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Re: Study Score Calculator (open beta)
« Reply #31 on: January 12, 2021, 09:14:27 pm »
0
I think the SS and ranking system was unfair this year for example, Legal Studies - with a school cohort of 20, there were only 5 that got a SS in the 40's, the rest were low 30's.  With SACS which were hard (from a top private school), and grades around B - B+, students still only managed to get a SS of low 30's.

BiggestVCESweat

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Re: Study Score Calculator (open beta)
« Reply #32 on: January 13, 2021, 12:34:00 pm »
+4
I think the SS and ranking system was unfair this year for example, Legal Studies - with a school cohort of 20, there were only 5 that got a SS in the 40's, the rest were low 30's.  With SACS which were hard (from a top private school), and grades around B - B+, students still only managed to get a SS of low 30's.
On average, a school should expect 9% of the study scores to be above 40.
25% is a comparitively large amount, even for some of the best schools in Victoria.

keltingmeith

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Re: Study Score Calculator (open beta)
« Reply #33 on: January 13, 2021, 01:08:56 pm »
+2
I think the SS and ranking system was unfair this year for example, Legal Studies - with a school cohort of 20, there were only 5 that got a SS in the 40's, the rest were low 30's.  With SACS which were hard (from a top private school), and grades around B - B+, students still only managed to get a SS of low 30's.

BiggestVCESweat already worded it really well, but more importantly - you talk about the ranking system as if there's some manipulative person behind the scenes deciding who should get each mark. That's not the case - it is literally a point of each student is turned into a numerical value, and then all of the numerical values are put on a number line to see who got the highest mark, second highest, third highest, etc., and the ranking figured out from there.

Maybe it feels unfair because your school didn't do as well as it normally does - that's not a point of the system being vindictive, the system inherently can't be vindictive because it's just following an algorithm. I'm really sorry, as well - maybe you didn't do as well as you would've liked to have done. But it's not the system's fault, sorry to say, and I'm sorry you feel frustrated by it :(

raghav0711

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Re: Study Score Calculator (open beta)
« Reply #34 on: March 07, 2021, 05:48:48 pm »
0
Could you add environmental science and economics please thanks.

SOULXX

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Re: Study Score Calculator (open beta)
« Reply #35 on: April 20, 2021, 07:37:32 pm »
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Hey Kelting,  can you please add  physical education onto the study score calculator.  Please

Mackenzie Aps

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Re: Study Score Calculator (open beta)
« Reply #36 on: August 07, 2021, 09:38:30 pm »
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Hi can I get an estimate SS on results so far:
English: SAC's A+, A, A - I have my Oral SAC result still to come, hoping for A or A+.  Hope to score A/A+ for remainder of year including Exam
Methods: SAC - C on first, second one hope to get a B, and hope to finish year and exam with B/B+
Revolutions: SAC's for French rev - C and B.  Hope to get B for Russian Rev SAC's and estimate B+/A for exam
Chemistry: SAC's so far: B, A, A, B+ - hope to get B+/A's for rest of SAC's and estimate A for exam
French: SAC's so far: B, B+,B+, estimate I will get b/B+ for my Oral SAC and B+ for remainder SAC's, hope to get B+/A for exams
Legal Studies: I did in Year 11 2020 - not a great year with remote learning really affecting me - GA1 was B, GA2 B+ and GA3 B+ = 33SS