-

[Orb]

he isn't saying to drop it now.
^^ not trying to say that you were saying that Orb, but I know lots of people here won't be that on top of covid news & may not have the context behind it.

Yes agreed - what you've said is absolutely correct

COVID-zero was definitely a possibility in Australia but slow actions for delta make it a lot tougher. I think people tend to forget that deaths/hospitalisations also impact the economy along with the population's mental health.

Just look at the protests, the 'engagement parties' and the sheer number of people hanging out at pubs despite 'lockdown'. We aren't getting to COVID-zero because it relies on true obedience or draconian implementation (similar to China where if you break rules you cease to exist), neither of which we have in Australia/VIC. With a population of 5m+ and a largely emotionally exhausted population this was always going to be difficult with Delta and the cases aren't dropping despite a (pretty) tough lockdown. We have 50 new cases today, THIRTY-NINE who weren't isolating while infectious - this number has not dropped in 3 weeks

Ultimately I think to voraciously support the lockdown you are, very likely, privileged. It's easy to support these measures when we don't have a family to feed, aren't burning $15-20,000 of our life savings PER WEEK (i have friends with small businesses who have to pay their employees and that's their loss even after factoring in govt savings - they're on the verge of declaring bankruptcy/closing down something they've invested decades of their lives to). At the end of the day would you prioritise the health/lives of random strangers or the wellbeing of your family? Very easy to take a moral high ground here but it's far more complex than that. It's much easier to accept lockdown when your only losses are being forced to online learning, staying at home with parents, missing out on social events, etc

[PhoenixxFire]

^I think just claiming that none of us understand is an easy out.

A lot of the issues you've raised could be addressed whilst remaining in lockdown (although we'd need a competent government for that).

Lots and lots of people are going to struggle if we opened back up right now - it'd just be different people, and some of them would have been struggling regardless of covid and I think a lot of the coverage around people who are struggling due to lockdown is because it's people who previously thought it wouldn't happen to them. Especially the sudden concern from some areas regarding mental health and suicide where they previously didn't care.

[Orb]

^I think just claiming that none of us understand is an easy out.

The truth is it's not a claim - very, very few of us DO truly understand - not me, not you, not Dan Andrews nor Scomo - we don't understand the full complexity and there are thousands of people with completely different perspectives, agendas and lives. I have a very limited understanding of the situation and I frankly would be quite incompetent if I was placed in a policy role. Many people shitting on the government do not realise how difficult it is to find an optimal solution (and I personally don't think there is one - every decision made whether creating lockdown or not screws over thousands of Australians in favour of others - I think Dan Andrews is doing a pretty good job given the circumstances he's found himself in).

This actually spins into a whole another side issue and i'm going to just conclude with that the benefits of the lockdown isn't as black or white as many of us think it is

Last comment: I've always been pro-lockdown and pro-suppression but given a different hand of cards to play and a much less favourable situation I can truly emphasise with those who think that Australia's response is disproportionate (in a different situation, I'd think so too) 

[OckTheOctopus]

A lockdown isn't effective if 1) It isn't being enforced and 2) Nobody cares. The lockdown strategy has expired with Delta. The only way out is with vaccines at this point. We can either lift lockdown and let thousands die but the economy survive or keep lockdown and let hundreds of people die and crash the economy.

Frankly the federal government should get involved. They have the resources Victoria doesn't. A good contact tracing team is a start.

[Professor Polonsky]

It's not that the government's response in disproportionate, its just that they screwed up at the start of the pandemic. Many "developing" countries like Vietnam and Cuba obliterated the virus and haven't gone into lockdown since iirc.

Using the "let it rip" strategy isn't great, as Professor Polonsky pointed out with Sweden, but why couldn't we have adopted a Cuba strategy? Stop the virus at the start and don't have to put up with it again, so much that Cuba is donating its doctors to countries that seriously need them.

Vietnam is in harsh lockdown right now. Cuba has 10,000 cases a day. No one has managed to consistently demolish this but China, and our state governments have done far better than anyone but China with a far more liberal and rights-respecting position. You'll always have the international border issue, and aside from dedicated quarantine facilities that the federal government has been too lazy to build, we've tried everything.

I feel like the situation in Victoria is hopeless at this point. The only solution Andrews thinks he has is lockdown. Every time there is a few cases he throws us into lockdown again. There are other solutions maybe shut the damn borders for real this time and keep them shut. Maybe fund contact tracing teams. Maybe he doesn't realise that the cost of upgrading contact tracers is cheaper than freezing the economy.

Vic's contract tracing team is massive and massively funded. It's also hitting all the benchmarks. There is no contract tracing deficiency anywhere in Australia, thanks to our state governments' response.

The decision to have lockdowns and shut borders is a national strategy, not a Vic one. Other states (bar NSW) go to lockdowns far more quickly than we do. And NSW kept its border closed to Victoria for 4 weeks after we recorded 0 cases in October 2020. Together, I'd argue Vic has gotten the balance better than any other state this pandemic.

Protests are making things worse. The lockdown won't work if people don't care.

The lockdown is clearly working, moving Reff from ~5 to just above 1, and possibly below 1. We're seeing cases slowly grow, or level off, not explode.

I think the best strategy at this point would be to go on a vaccine blitz. Clearly the state governments can't handle this, so I think Canberra needs to sort things out for us.

The only thing constraining vaccinations is that the federal government didn't order enough supply. The state vaccination clinics are by far the most efficient way to deliver the vaccine.

[turinturambar]

The only thing constraining vaccinations is that the federal government didn't order enough supply. The state vaccination clinics are by far the most efficient way to deliver the vaccine.

I'll add an additional note to this: When, a month or two ago*, the federal government announced a Q4-heavy vaccination schedule they were relying on it peaking at a little over 2 million doses / week.  I was skeptical of this because I knew that was a higher per capita rate than the likes of the US had peaked at.  However, since then they have managed to bring Pfizer supply forward and encourage more people to get AZ (thanks, outbreaks...), the states and territories have used the increased supply, and we are approaching that 2 million a week.  That is driven most notably by NSW (again, supply + serious outbreak).  See this recent article. I am impressed and, TBH, happy to be proved wrong.  Yes, there was early slowness, which as far as I could tell was a combination of logistics (always going to be tricky) and supply.  Right now we might like it faster, but it's a large and complex exercise and we are in a reasonable position.  And while we continue to open eligibility to new age groups I think demand is going to exceed supply for a while.  At some point I expect we will get to the position other nations are in where supply is higher than demand, mostly because of hesitancy or outright refusal in those still unvaccinated, but also probably because of parts of the population that are harder to reach.  I don't know when that point will be or what percentage of the population will be covered, but for now I would say we are doing better than I expected.

* I'm losing track of time.  Someone said the other day "It's nearly the end of winter", and I went "Surely not", then realised "Oh, yeah, I guess we are near the end of August..."

[OckTheOctopus]

Vietnam is in harsh lockdown right now. Cuba has 10,000 cases a day. No one has managed to consistently demolish this but China, and our state governments have done far better than anyone but China with a far more liberal and rights-respecting position. You'll always have the international border issue, and aside from dedicated quarantine facilities that the federal government has been too lazy to build, we've tried everything.
Vic's contract tracing team is massive and massively funded. It's also hitting all the benchmarks. There is no contract tracing deficiency anywhere in Australia, thanks to our state governments' response.

Welp. I haven't been keeping up with the news. Although pre-Delta when most of the world was in lockdown these countries were among the first to open and they didn't get back into lockdown (until as you said Delta came and screwed everybody over).

On that note, I suggest that people stop reading all the "OMG we got xyz cases today!" because its just depressing. My family is boycotting the news at the moment (except for the stuff about restrictions and dates for reopening, i.e. the essential stuff).

[peterpiper]

It's not that the government's response in disproportionate, its just that they screwed up at the start of the pandemic. Many "developing" countries like Vietnam and Cuba obliterated the virus and haven't gone into lockdown since iirc.

Vietnam is in harsh lockdown right now. Cuba has 10,000 cases a day. No one has managed to consistently demolish this but China, and our state governments have done far better than anyone but China with a far more liberal and rights-respecting position. You'll always have the international border issue, and aside from dedicated quarantine facilities that the federal government has been too lazy to build, we've tried everything.

Just to add on about the situation in Vietnam, for those who don't know, its facing a huge surge right now, in fact the hospitals are so incredibly overwhelmed, people in some neighbourhoods of Ho Chi Minh (the epicentre) and some other parts aren't even allowed outside for anything. About 300 people are dying almost every day. Food is delivered and essentials are provided from the government but it still leaves many people with not enough. People from the informal economy literally cannot afford anything because they have no income and can't work at home. My friends know a few people who would go like 50km into the city every day and sell whatever veggies they have growing in the backyard, which was just enough for them to get by. They were able to get by all those years, because it sustained them. Now, many like them are left with very little support because of an inadequate welfare infrastructure in the country. I don't know much about politics but it kinda urks me when colleagues at work would complain about "breathing but barely living" and "Melbourne is a laughing stock in the world." "Melbourne is the most lockdown city in the world." And my favourite "Australia's the only one going under lockdown all this time when every other country have moved on".

Increasingly, while I do still (would like to) believe in the goodness of humanity, the pandemic has highlighted just how common this attitude is among the general Australian public. We're so privileged to have things like welfare that we almost just take it for granted, including measures/facilities to stop a virus that could potentially kill us(??). I usually respect people's views but it's just hard not to notice the entitlement of some people, particularly those who support the anti-lockdown movement and believe our lockdowns have been infringing on their human rights (to be dicks).

Anyway, rant over, I'm just so tired of being surrounded by people (who mean well) who get their newsfeed from a block of text on their instagram from some personal fitness instructor this whoole lockdown lol at first you practice some patience and wait it out, and then you begin to realise that it's a limited supply after hearing it over and over. We have so much to be grateful of yet we act like we deserve everything even during a global crisis. It's so deeply saddening to see.

[Sine]

Lots and lots of people are going to struggle if we opened back up right now - it'd just be different people, and some of them would have been struggling regardless of covid and I think a lot of the coverage around people who are struggling due to lockdown is because it's people who previously thought it wouldn't happen to them. Especially the sudden concern from some areas regarding mental health and suicide where they previously didn't care.

Yeah, that seems true. I think some of it (obviously not all) is some people's sense of entitlement and pre-pandemic feeling of being untouchable + It is usually these voices that get amplified by the media and not people who were struggling pre-pandemic and during it.

Ultimately, with opening up too early the burden of disease would disproportionately impact those of low SES, more likely to get infected, they already have higher rates of other illnesses and comorbidities so also have higher chances of dying with COVID-19.

[PhoenixxFire]

While we are on the topic of lockdowns I thought I'd post something interest.

It seems that some other nations outside of Australia are ridiculing and laughing at our COVID-19 prevention strategies. I honestly thought it was pretty funny, but at the same time what he said was true.

Here is Tucker Carlson "slamming" Australia's lockdown lunacy

Countries with hundreds of thousands of covid deaths are in no place to criticse how australia is handling it lmao

[Unwonted]

I'm really starting to question that some people in this thread work for Murdoch lol. Please stop with the misinformation

Thank you PhoenixxFire, your participation in this debate is greatly appreciated (logic people logic)

[schoolstudent115]

No one has managed to consistently demolish this but China.

Which is a claim to be taken with a grain of salt...

[The Cat In The Hat]

Which is a claim to be taken with a grain of salt...

Either that, or... they could be right. Not to try and spread conspiracy theories, but it is also observable that places such as India deal better with it, who're more likely to have had things similar in the past. I don't know about you, but I think it entirely possible that China posts the true figures. If you know the consequences of breaking lockdown are a whole lot more than just a tap, or a fine, you're less likely to break the rules.
Also it's possible that the virus got out of a lab or something where they were working on vaccines, and thus they had a head start on us.

[james.358]

I hate getting involved in political discussions, especially on a forum like ATARNotes. But come on Rebel News is a pathetic source of information, probably even more biased than Sky News if that's even possible. It's literally founded by people who think Murdoch's news aren't extreme enough for them - an outlet spewing alt right propaganda:

From Wikipedia:

Rebel News is a Canadian far-right political and social commentary media website operated by Rebel News Network, Ltd. It has been described as a "global platform" for the anti-Muslim ideology known as counter-jihad. It was founded in February 2015 by former Sun News Network personalities Ezra Levant and Brian Lilley.

From Media Bias Fact Check:

Gavin McInnes, the founder of the far-right neo-fascist organization Proud Boys, was also a contributor and subsequently let go after controversy and brought back in 2019. According to MacLean’s The Rebel is a part of the Alt-right and sympathetic toward white nationalists.

Yes, the lockdown is affecting us, some more than others, but anything we're losing now - money, school, even mental health - will eventually recover. But nothing can bring someone's life back.

[Professor Polonsky]

I don't think anyone doubts lockdowns have adverse health consequences. There is a wide consensus among policymakers - with some exceptions like certain US states and Sweden - that lockdowns are the better alternative.

What isn't considered enough by those who say "lockdowns have negative consequences" is that most of those negative consequences will also be realised (and likely in worse ways) if we don't lock down. How many people do you think will be skipping optometry and dentistry appointments if there were tens of thousands of cases? What do you think hospitals being overwhelmed will do to those who require urgent care, whether for COVID or non-COVID reasons? The examples keep on piling on, and they're worse than the adverse outcomes of lockdowns.