ATAR Notes: Forum

General Discussion => General Discussion Boards => News and Politics => Topic started by: Sine on November 03, 2020, 10:53:04 am

Title: 2020 US Presidential Election
Post by: Sine on November 03, 2020, 10:53:04 am
Creating this thread to discuss any predictions leading into election day as well as conferring about the incoming results for the Presidential, Senate and House of Representatives elections once polls are closed.

As always it is important to adhere to the Rules of the ATAR Notes forums . Please have a read if you are not familiar with them  :)
Title: Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
Post by: Joseph41 on November 03, 2020, 11:03:48 am
Honestly really looking forward to tomorrow. Should be interesting.

EDIT: Any predictions, Sine or others?
Title: Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
Post by: keltingmeith on November 03, 2020, 11:18:30 am
Am I the only one worried by how much prominence this election seems to have?

Like, we had a state election literal days ago, and it felt like people were too busy talking about the US election to even notice that QLD were having one
Title: Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
Post by: Sine on November 03, 2020, 04:17:00 pm
Honestly really looking forward to tomorrow. Should be interesting.

EDIT: Any predictions, Sine or others?
A lot of the polls and analytics are favouring Biden but I still think anything can happen and it might be closer than expected.

What are your thoughts on the situation?
Title: Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
Post by: S_R_K on November 03, 2020, 05:21:48 pm
The states to watch tomorrow are Florida, Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, all of which - provided that the result is not close - will declare their winner tomorrow. Trump needs to win all four to have any chance, so a Biden win in any one of these means a likely Biden win overall.

(Texas and Ohio are also forecasted to be relatively close, and a result known fairly quickly, and a Biden win here could mean 400+ EC, but it's unlikely)

Otherwise, we'll need to wait for Pennsylvania to finish counting, which won't be until end of the week.
Title: Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
Post by: turinturambar on November 03, 2020, 07:27:58 pm
I tend to trust FiveThirtyEight's take as about the best you can get from polling, because they go to the state level and look at the effect of different levels of deviation from the polling. That was how in 2016 they could be criticised for only giving Hillary 70% chance of winning, but it was because they predicted various paths to a Trump win including the one he actually took.  Polls are not reality, of course, but they have been pointing out since the convention season how unusually stable the polls have been.

Their frozen forecast gives Biden 89% chance - but much greater difficulty if he doesn't take Pennsylvania.  And a 97% chance of taking the popular vote.  They also give Democrats a 3 in 4 chance of taking the Senate, and I would be very interested in seeing what Democrats do with the power if they take Presidency, Senate, and House.  It would be nice to have a rare period of majority rule (though I'd also be concerned what the reprisals look like in 2 or 4 or 8 years...).

Trump (and to a lesser extent the GOP) have been trying to cast doubt on the postal vote for months.  If as expected the postal vote skews Democrat in key states and is counted later than in person vote, there are many concerning scenarios which could unfold.

Honestly really looking forward to tomorrow. Should be interesting.

I have too many friends in the US living in existential dread to look forward to it.  And that's not hyperbole, either.  They feel (and I tend to agree) that 4 years of Trump rule has done significant damage to the US project, and another 4 years may take a life-time to recover from.  And those friends include some life-long Republicans who are reluctantly voting Biden because they think Trump and a Trumpian GOP is too much of a threat to the nation and the world.

Am I the only one worried by how much prominence this election seems to have?

Like, we had a state election literal days ago, and it felt like people were too busy talking about the US election to even notice that QLD were having one

In fairness, unless you're living in Queensland or have close relatives there, the results of the US election will probably affect you more than the results of the Queensland election.  This is perhaps true of many US elections, but particularly of this one where there are such different visions on offer of the possible future of our strongest ally and an influential world super-power.  Among other things, this is their "climate change election", and I really hope they decide it differently to how we decided ours last year.
(though yes, I did know there was an election in Queensland - it's been mentioned far too often in border debates in the last few months to be missed ;) ).
Title: Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
Post by: PhoenixxFire on November 03, 2020, 07:48:47 pm
Not really sure if I'm gonna watch it or not. I do normally like watching election results but maybe not this one. There's been lots and lots of fear in online queer groups I'm in because of what another 4 years with Trump could mean and it's just really shit to read. I really fkn hope Trump doesn't win.

I've seen a fair bit about the queensland election but possibly just because I tend to pay attention to elections and also Canberra just had an election a few weeks ago too.
Title: Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
Post by: keltingmeith on November 04, 2020, 10:48:07 am
Not really sure if I'm gonna watch it or not. I do normally like watching election results but maybe not this one. There's been lots and lots of fear in online queer groups I'm in because of what another 4 years with Trump could mean and it's just really shit to read. I really fkn hope Trump doesn't win.

I've seen a fair bit about the queensland election but possibly just because I tend to pay attention to elections and also Canberra just had an election a few weeks ago too.

I literally had no idea about Canberra. That's fucking wild.

Also, I want to say: people might remember half a decade ago on the forums where gay marriage came up and was discussed. I assume most of the regular users have no idea about this time, but for those that do remember, I want to say this. I was not a model for queer positivity or support then. But things have changed, and I have a much different mindset to then. And right now, I'm sure people are stressed and potentially upset for things that might happen to friends who live in the US, or online communities you're in that might be affected by what's happening in the US.

This isn't limited to the LGBTQIA+ community, either. This includes minorities, those who are ethnically different to your typical "white American", women, those with poor health, etc. If you are worried about anything, and need someone to talk to - my DMs are open. I can't say I'll respond immediately, but I will respond, and be there to listen. Nobody can fix anything, but we can listen to each other, and let them vent, and help them with the support of having someone to listen to.

This also includes if Biden getting in might worry you. I will be honest, I can't think of a situation where Biden getting in will put people at risk of not having basic human rights (like the right to feel safe, have a roof over your head, be fed, etc.) unless that's a situation which Trump won't be able to fix either, but it could just be that I'm misinformed or unknowledgeable of the situation. And even then - if it's something that makes you anxious, then you deserve to have someone to talk to and quell your fears, regardless of my own political leanings.

So please, if you're upset for any reason, and just need someone to talk to, please give me a buzz.
Title: Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
Post by: Orb on November 04, 2020, 03:52:43 pm
I like my maths and it seems like at the moment it's a bit of a coinflip.. most oddsmakers have Trump now as a 55-60% favourite but it hit around 75-80% at 1pm this afternoon. Trump looks on the verge of winning Florida meaning that it'll be a very tightly contested race either way.

Seems like one of the biggest coinflips in human history is about to happen with millions of lives at stake and all we can do is watch

One of my key takeaways is never trusting the polling ever again - it did not work for Australia a few years back (people were saying ALP had a 90%+ chance of winning) and is likely not working for the US election either


Title: Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
Post by: vox nihili on November 04, 2020, 04:26:56 pm
For those who are following closely, Georgia is back in play again. NYT had it as almost certain Trump victory but there's a massive sampling error in their prediction because most of the votes that haven't been counted are in Atlanta, which is very different to the rest of the state.
Title: Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
Post by: Coolgalbornin03Lo on November 04, 2020, 05:04:18 pm
I don’t really follow politics but it makes me sad that thousands- NO, millions of people can vote for a person like trump who says certain (I won’t go into details) things about minority groups. It makes me feel unsafe in this world. I mean are People that bigoted they’d vote for someone who is regularly racist or sexist or homophobic etc. it just makes me upset that it’s 2020 and some people still support that or such blatant racism exists :(
Title: Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
Post by: Joseph41 on November 04, 2020, 05:06:42 pm
I have too many friends in the US living in existential dread to look forward to it.  And that's not hyperbole, either.  They feel (and I tend to agree) that 4 years of Trump rule has done significant damage to the US project, and another 4 years may take a life-time to recover from.  And those friends include some life-long Republicans who are reluctantly voting Biden because they think Trump and a Trumpian GOP is too much of a threat to the nation and the world.

Yeah, wasn't good phrasing, and agreed. I guess I meant I was very interested in it rather than looking forward to it.
Title: Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
Post by: Poet on November 04, 2020, 05:27:21 pm
I'm a US citizen living in Australia and it makes me physically ill to watch how close these numbers are.
If Trump wins, millions will die. And still, they vote themselves into their own graves like blind lemmings.

Biden currently holds 49.9% of counted votes.
Trump holds 48.5%.
Title: Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
Post by: keltingmeith on November 04, 2020, 06:04:52 pm
The thing to remember is that Trump is a character, and that character speaks a lot more to people than Biden does. A lot of US voters care more about the person in power than the policies they and their party support - which is dumb, but when all you can think about and hear from is one person talking about what they talk about, that's what a lot of the focus is on, as opposed to what policies their party supports and are in support of.

Then the next thing is Trump says a lot of shit about minorities - but that's the whole point, it's the minorities that are affected, not the larger voting populace. If you're not part of that minority, it's /really/ hard to put yourself in their shoes and realise how bad it is for them if Trump gets elected. Think about BLM (CW: racism and what led to the BLM movement)

CW: racism and what led to the BLM movement
If you weren't in the minority that suffers from police violence, all you saw was George Floyd being killed by a group of police officers. That was it. When you've spent your whole life being told the police are good, the police will protect you, and have had no evidence until now telling you anything otherwise, you're seeing people say a group of people you believed were beyond reproach as the literal worst thing in existence. That dissonance won't make you question the police, a group you love - it'll make you question Floyd, and his character, the thing you don't know ANYTHING about.

For every black person in America, they saw that, and they saw all the problems they've had to deal with come to light. It seems insane to think this, but African-Americans only represent 13.4% of the American population. That's /tiny/.

And it's a similar story for all the other horrible things Trump has said - they affect minorities, not the main voter demographic. Combine gerrymandering to control votes such that these minorities are split far and a part so that they have little affect on the vote, and you have a recipe for them to be drowned out and forgotten. More than 75% of Americans identify as only white, based on census data from last year. Easily enough to drown out the minority, and requires more than third of those white people to think outside their own circumstances and take a stand to help support the minorities.

There is one final thing I'll say - my housemate said it a lot, and I think it holds true here. In times of crisis, you stick with what you know. I think that's going to reflect a lot here. Sure, Biden might improve the response to COVID and save lives - but it's equally likely what he does will have no affect, and maybe it'll ruin the economy. At least with Trump, they know what to expect, and can just keep doing what they've been doing to fight it. I don't think this is a /good/ attitude to have, but it would explain what we're seeing in the amount of support Trump still has.
Title: Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
Post by: turinturambar on November 04, 2020, 06:36:55 pm
There's some disappointments, but I'm not sure how much is different to what we knew at the start of the day.  We knew the most likely path to a Biden victory in a non-landslide would be through states with a high postal vote to count, that in person voting in those states would probably skew Trump while postal vote would skew Biden, and that that would then fuel claims of voter fraud (Trump has already tweeted about winning, and the election being stolen).  We also knew that Biden was likely to have more difficulty in Pennsylvania, but could come close to replacing it with Arizona.  Right now my read is that he's relying on the postal vote in at least Michigan and Wisconsin to give him a good chance, which is a little disturbing but again not too different from what we could predict ahead of time.

Looks much less likely the Democrats taking the Senate.  Which means even if Biden takes the presidency it will probably be harder for him to get things done.  It also pretty much guarantees the current Supreme Court continuing to hear important cases on human rights, workers rights, healthcare, etc.

The thing to remember is that Trump is a character, and that character speaks a lot more to people than Biden does. A lot of US voters care more about the person in power than the policies they and their party support - which is dumb, but when all you can think about and hear from is one person talking about what they talk about, that's what a lot of the focus is on, as opposed to what policies their party supports and are in support of.

Add to that that Trump isn't really a conventional Republican candidate anyway, which is why at least some who care about the party are vocally against him.

Biden currently holds 49.9% of counted votes.
Trump holds 48.5%.

Biden will almost certainly win the popular vote.  Unfortunately that's no guarantee of winning the election.  In just the same way as the Senate majority will probably continue to represent a minority of the population.
Title: Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
Post by: vox nihili on November 04, 2020, 07:13:11 pm
AP just called Arizona for Biden. Others haven't but AP are usually reasonably conservative. A win there would be a huge boost for the probability of a Biden victory.
Title: Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
Post by: Sine on November 04, 2020, 11:57:18 pm
Biden tightening the gap in Michigan, slightly leading in Wisconsin now. Still only 20k votes difference in those two states though. However, many believe a lot of the rest of the vote will trend towards Biden.

Right now it seems like the simplest pathway for Biden is to win Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan. That would put him at 270 electoral votes on the dot. It may take a few days or even a week to finalise though since Nevada will still be receiving ballots over the week.
Title: Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
Post by: blueycan on November 05, 2020, 10:35:06 am
Biden wins Michigan and Wisconsin, with most sources putting Biden at 264 electoral votes and Trump at 214. The states still in play are Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. There are reports that more ballots coming into Georgia later today, and Nevada won't resume counting until 4am tomorrow AEDT.

Eeeeee
Title: Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
Post by: Orb on November 05, 2020, 01:32:01 pm
Sportsbet paid out all bets on Biden winning!!! :))))

Although they also paid it out on ALP winning the last Australian election.. my breath is still held
Title: Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
Post by: Sine on November 05, 2020, 02:34:57 pm
Biden looks much better in Pennsylvania now. Still behind by ~190k but there are 750k mail-in ballots left to be counted which are likely favour him.
Title: Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
Post by: tiredandstressed on November 05, 2020, 02:42:44 pm
Nevada is so close OMG  :o :o
If Biden wins Nevada he can win the presidency (given none of the states he prospected to win flip)
Title: Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
Post by: vox nihili on November 05, 2020, 04:23:08 pm
I don't think that we should take Arizona as being called for Biden. Only AP and Fox have made that call and since then the count has become a lot closer, with the Arizona prepolls paradoxically (c.f. the rest of the US) favouring Trump.

That said, Biden wins in Wisconsin and Michigan make it very hard for Trump to win.

Where we're at with the remaining states:

Arizona: Biden has a healthy lead there but Trump is clawing back with prepolls. Biden lead should be healthy enough but still possible Trump picks it.
Nevada: small Biden lead but mainly prepolls to count. Expected to fall to Biden.
Georgia: Trump up by about 0.7% with only 5% of the vote to count. Most of the remaining votes are in Atlanta (ironically home to the Center for Disease Control), which is very, very Biden-friendly. This will be extremely close but probably just favours Biden
Pennsylvania: Trump's lead has been clawed back realllllly fast now that they're counting prepolls. This is exactly what was predicted to occur (early huge Trump leads that vanish). Given how they're tracking and how Trump did elsewhere, Biden is probably going to win this one.
North Carolina: Trump lead with about 5% left to count. Not entirely clear where the votes are but they're probably late prepolls, which have favoured Biden elsewhere but not by the margins of the early prepolls. Trump likely to retain this one
Title: Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
Post by: Sine on November 05, 2020, 10:34:42 pm
Biden further cut down the gap in Georgia, now only down by 18500 votes. Some of the recent count from Atlanta and the surrounding areas have been ~80% in his favour. I am not exactly sure how many votes are left (I have heard a range between 50k - 100k but not exactly sure).

EDIT (12:26 AM): Biden trailing by 164k in Pennsylvania. Likely at least 450k votes left which should trend towards Biden  (especially the 110k+ from Philadelphia   --> apparently so far the mail-ins from Philadelphia have been 90%+ for Biden). However, still a bit of uncertainty on the exact number of ballots left to count.
Title: Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
Post by: Joseph41 on November 06, 2020, 12:34:18 pm
Georgia couldn't be much closer at the moment.
Title: Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
Post by: Sine on November 06, 2020, 02:17:11 pm
Georgia couldn't be much closer at the moment.
Less than 2k difference with 16k votes to be counted now. Quite likely to be a recount.
Title: Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
Post by: tiredandstressed on November 06, 2020, 04:22:28 pm
Does Trump actually have legal grounds to sue the swing states for fraud?
Title: Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
Post by: vox nihili on November 06, 2020, 05:52:21 pm
Does Trump actually have legal grounds to sue the swing states for fraud?

no
Title: Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
Post by: Unknown-111 on November 06, 2020, 07:01:53 pm
So far it looks like Joe Biden, but who knows what Trump might pull.
Title: Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
Post by: Sine on November 06, 2020, 08:54:24 pm
Biden in the lead in Georgia now, less than 1k difference though so definitely not over. However, a very good position for him.

EDIT (1:05 AM): Biden has just taken the lead in Pennsylvania. Almost immediately Decision Desk HQ then called Pennsylvania for Biden. Therefore, elected as the 46th President (Projected by Decision Desk HQ).

Title: Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
Post by: JerryMouse2019 on November 07, 2020, 07:22:11 pm
Isn't the AP the most accurate when it comes to calling states?

Don't know too much about the accuracy of Decision Desk HQ. So I wouldn't only trust them.

However, I do believe that Biden has won.
Title: Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
Post by: tiredandstressed on November 07, 2020, 07:30:47 pm
The states that have flipped, probably won't flip back. So Biden has confidently won the electoral seats needed to obtain the presidency.
Title: Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
Post by: Sine on November 08, 2020, 03:34:16 am
EDIT (1:05 AM - Nov 7): Biden has just taken the lead in Pennsylvania. Almost immediately Decision Desk HQ then called Pennsylvania for Biden. Therefore, elected as the 46th President (Projected by Decision Desk HQ).
Other networks are finally calling it. So far: CNN, MSNBC, AP, ABC
Title: Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
Post by: Unknown-111 on November 08, 2020, 10:45:59 am
Quick update Biden won the election.
Title: Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
Post by: S_R_K on November 08, 2020, 11:25:27 am
Georgia and Wisconsin will recount (I think Trump campaign may have to pay for recount in Wisconsin?). Arizona will recount if the margin is within 0.1% - which is more likely than Trump winning, because he is not winning the remaining ballots by a sufficient margin to overtake Biden.

Typically recounts may swing a few hundred votes, so the results in Georgia (final margin likely to be close to 10000 votes) and Wisconsin (over 20000 vote) unlikely to change.

All the action now is with the two Senate runoffs in Georgia to see if Democrats can gain control of the Senate (using Harris as the tie-breaking vote), but Republicans are more likely here.
Title: Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
Post by: Joseph41 on November 08, 2020, 12:02:19 pm
Biden about to speak.
Title: Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
Post by: Coolmate on November 08, 2020, 01:17:58 pm
Biden about to speak.

The drone light and firework displays look pretty cool, I liked how they used the drones in creating different images 8)