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VCE Stuff => VCE Mathematics => VCE Mathematics/Science/Technology => VCE Subjects + Help => VCE Mathematical Methods CAS => Topic started by: luken93 on October 31, 2011, 05:56:30 pm

Title: Guide to Probability Notation
Post by: luken93 on October 31, 2011, 05:56:30 pm
So there's been a few questions regarding the proper notation to be used on the exam, so I thought it's probably time to make a thread :P

I'm assuming this is right, but feel free to pick me up on anything I've missed:

Normal Distribution
The range of scores on a particular test are such that they hold a mean of 60 with a standard deviation of 4.

NORMAL CDF
a) Find the probability of a student's scores lie between 55 and 62

On the TI-Nspire;
On the classpad;

On paper:
Let X be the range of scores of students on the test.




NORMAL PDF
b) Find the probability that a student's score is 61

On the calculator;

On paper:
Let X be the range of scores of students on the test.




INVERSE NORMAL
c) 75% of students passed the test. Find the score needed to pass the test.

On the calculator;

On paper:
Let X be the range of scores of students on the test.

Let a be the minimum value needed to pass, Find a such that


Therefore a score of 57.3020 is needed to pass.



Binomial Distribution
BinomPDF
d) The probability that a particular student passes the test is 0.4.
i) If this student sits 3 tests that are independent to the other, what is the probability that the student passes 2 out of 3 tests.

On the calculator;

On paper:
Let Y be the performance of the student in the 3 tests




BinomCDF
ii) This particular student needs to pass at least one of the tests to make his parents happy. What is the probability that his parents will be happy?

On the calculator;

On paper:
Let Y be the performance of the student in the 3 tests




Number of Trials
iii) The student is now getting very worried about his parents. To ensure that the probability that his parents are happy is 0.95, how many tests will he have to sit if he has to pass at least one of them?

On paper:
Let Y be the performance of the student in the m number of tests

Find m such that





the student will need to sit 6 tests.
Hopefully that's all correct!
Title: Re: Guide to Probability Notation
Post by: REBORN on October 31, 2011, 05:57:37 pm
Why is just X space N.

Is there meant to be a symbol in b/w?
Title: Re: Guide to Probability Notation
Post by: gossamer on October 31, 2011, 06:00:05 pm
He wrote ~ between the X and N/Bi, but it didn't show up
Title: Re: Guide to Probability Notation
Post by: b^3 on October 31, 2011, 06:01:04 pm
I'm guessing that LaTeX doesn't support ~. Anyway good job luken

Use \sim in LaTeX and it will work.
Title: Re: Guide to Probability Notation
Post by: david10d on October 31, 2011, 06:01:46 pm
thanks :)

bad habit using calculator syntax :P
Title: Re: Guide to Probability Notation
Post by: nacho on October 31, 2011, 06:04:04 pm
dont forget that you have to introduce variables
(Let X = number of ..)
Title: Re: Guide to Probability Notation
Post by: Asx4Life on October 31, 2011, 08:40:09 pm
Hooray~~~~~~
How about the question where it asks for find the minimum number of trials...
How do we give notation for that?
Title: Re: Guide to Probability Notation
Post by: tony3272 on October 31, 2011, 08:51:33 pm
For normal distribution functions, if you want to be really pedantic to get the method mark you can write:
Title: Re: Guide to Probability Notation
Post by: tony3272 on October 31, 2011, 09:02:11 pm
And for binomial questions i always write this formula out.
Title: Re: Guide to Probability Notation
Post by: luken93 on October 31, 2011, 09:05:30 pm
Hmmm. As much as I agree with you tony, I dunno if it's really necessary. Can we get any clarification on this though? I don't want to give any false advice!
Title: Re: Guide to Probability Notation
Post by: Asx4Life on October 31, 2011, 11:14:03 pm
How about the question where it asks for find the minimum number of trials...
How do we give notation for that?

Anyone can answer this? ;) Thanks
Title: Re: Guide to Probability Notation
Post by: nacho on October 31, 2011, 11:17:36 pm
i dont think u'd have to write out tony's binomial formula out
have not ever seen vcaa complaining about it
Title: Re: Guide to Probability Notation
Post by: luken93 on October 31, 2011, 11:37:13 pm
How about the question where it asks for find the minimum number of trials...
How do we give notation for that?

Anyone can answer this? ;) Thanks

Does that answer your question?
Title: Re: Guide to Probability Notation
Post by: abeybaby on November 01, 2011, 12:00:43 am
Hmmm. As much as I agree with you tony, I dunno if it's really necessary. Can we get any clarification on this though? I don't want to give any false advice!

yeah, luken is right... plus the last line should read Pr(1≤Y≤3), not Pr(1<Y<3).
Title: Re: Guide to Probability Notation
Post by: abeybaby on November 01, 2011, 12:03:13 am
Re: Solving for n in probability

Theres an answer up there. You really only need to get to the 5th line, then go straight to the answer..


for the solving for n stuff..
Title: Re: Guide to Probability Notation
Post by: Greatness on November 01, 2011, 01:21:48 pm
Would VCAA give us a solve for n question on exam 1? - The calculations would have to pretty simple tho...
Title: Re: Guide to Probability Notation
Post by: luken93 on November 01, 2011, 01:26:30 pm
Would VCAA give us a solve for n question on exam 1? - The calculations would have to pretty simple tho...
Yeah I would doubt it, but if they did I can't imagine it being more than a Pr(X >= 1) = ...., to keep the calcs relatively simple..
Title: Re: Guide to Probability Notation
Post by: tony3272 on November 01, 2011, 01:45:08 pm
They did last year, which was the only mark i lost on that exam.... You had to use trial and error for it though.
Title: Re: Guide to Probability Notation
Post by: yabbaboo on November 05, 2011, 06:13:37 pm
Um, are we allowed to write this whole thing down on the paper, eg normcdf(60, 95, 60, 15)? I always wrote like that on my sacs and I never lost marks for that.
Title: Re: Guide to Probability Notation
Post by: b^3 on November 05, 2011, 06:22:02 pm
Um, are we allowed to write this whole thing down on the paper, eg normcdf(60, 95, 60, 15)? I always wrote like that on my sacs and I never lost marks for that.
Thats calculator syntax, I don't think you would lose marks for writing it, you just wouldn't get the marks for writing the X~(60,0.2). VCAA are always  stating in the assesment reports to not write caclulator syntax.

Remember that with sacs, your teachers may be marking a slightly different way to VCAA.

Just a quesition guys, what do we write when we have the inversnorm function?
i.e. Binomial X~(n,p)
Normal distributions X~(u,o^2)
inversnor X~"_"(u,o^2)
Title: Re: Guide to Probability Notation
Post by: mjwalka on November 05, 2011, 10:24:14 pm
Good post, I've never really got a clue to write for most of prob. I think this might find it's way on my bound reference haha.
Title: Re: Guide to Probability Notation
Post by: b^3 on November 05, 2011, 10:33:47 pm
EDIT2: NVM I'm blind.
Title: Re: Guide to Probability Notation
Post by: AleksIlia on November 05, 2011, 10:50:01 pm
Hey, I never really got the difference between normpdf vs normcdf on the CAS, I don't get why you can plug in a specific value because I thought as all normal distributions are continuous the probabiltu at a given point is zero. Can someone explain? :S
Title: Re: Guide to Probability Notation
Post by: Greatness on November 05, 2011, 10:58:07 pm
if you want Pr(X>2) then you're going from 2 to inf which is why there is the upper and lower for CDF but if you want it for a particular value you just use PDF.
You have to remember that the normal bell curve extends to infinity.
Title: Re: Guide to Probability Notation
Post by: AleksIlia on November 05, 2011, 11:07:49 pm
if you want Pr(X>2) then you're going from 2 to inf which is why there is the upper and lower for CDF but if you want it for a particular value you just use PDF.
You have to remember that the normal bell curve extends to infinity.

But how do you find Pr(X=2) for a normal distribution if Pr(X=x) is 0 for a specific value of x
Title: Re: Guide to Probability Notation
Post by: b^3 on November 05, 2011, 11:10:14 pm
pdf is from negative infintiy to the value you specify where as cfd is between the two values you specify.
Title: Re: Guide to Probability Notation
Post by: AleksIlia on November 05, 2011, 11:19:45 pm
Oh, I see then, but if I put in the normal distribution mean 0 sd 1 for x value of 0 I don't get 0.5?
Title: Re: Guide to Probability Notation
Post by: b^3 on November 05, 2011, 11:22:55 pm
Oh, I see then, but if I put in the normal distribution mean 0 sd 1 for x value of 0 I don't get 0.5?
Wait, you're right I may be wrong let me just check.
Title: Re: Guide to Probability Notation
Post by: b^3 on November 05, 2011, 11:31:20 pm
Ok got it. The pdf function gives the height of the normal (ow whichever you use) at the point of the function.

Sorry for the confusion. But in a continuous function we can't have that so I don't know why it is there.

EDIT: sometimes we get a question like the example in the first post, test scores (where you can't have half a mark) so this will allow you to calculate the probability of say 65 /100 or 69/100.
Title: Re: Guide to Probability Notation
Post by: AleksIlia on November 05, 2011, 11:35:59 pm
Okay thanks! Also thanks for those CAS guides, super helpful. Good luck Tuesday :)
Title: Re: Guide to Probability Notation
Post by: b^3 on November 05, 2011, 11:38:10 pm
Okay thanks! Also thanks for those CAS guides, super helpful. Good luck Tuesday :)
No problem, but remember luken93 is the one who knows what hes doing when it comes to probability. Anyway good luck for the next weeks of exams.
Title: Re: Guide to Probability Notation
Post by: luken93 on November 06, 2011, 02:56:05 pm
Okay thanks! Also thanks for those CAS guides, super helpful. Good luck Tuesday :)
No problem, but remember luken93 is the one who knows what hes doing when it comes to probability. Anyway good luck for the next weeks of exams.
Hahaha cheers.

However, does anyone know of a nice way to present your working for steady state?

Is it sufficient just to say that Pr(A long term) = b/(a + b) according to your transition matrix orrr?
Title: Re: Guide to Probability Notation
Post by: paulsterio on November 06, 2011, 04:47:32 pm
Hey Luke, I'd just like to point out that on a CASIO ClassPad, the NormCDF function is different to the nSpire
On the nSpire, I believe it is normCDF(lower, upper, mean, standard deviation)
On the ClassPad, however, it is normCDF(lower, upper, standard deviation, mean)

you might like to include that on your guide just for clarity