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VCE Stuff => VCE Mathematics => VCE Mathematics/Science/Technology => VCE Subjects + Help => VCE Mathematical Methods CAS => Topic started by: jack_chay on August 18, 2013, 07:54:04 pm

Title: PROBABILITY HELP!!!
Post by: jack_chay on August 18, 2013, 07:54:04 pm
Another hard problem from the Essentials Textbook ~

A concert featuring a popular singer is scheduled to be held in a large open air theatre. The
promoter is concerned that rain will cause people to stay away. A weather forecaster
predicts that the probability of rain on any day at that particular time of the year is 0.33. If it
does not rain the promoter will make a profit of $250 000 on the concert. If it does rain the
profit will be reduced to $20 000. An insurance company agrees to insure the concert for
$250 000 against rain for a premium of $60 000. Should the promoter buy the insurance?

Thanks in advance :)
Title: Re: PROBABILITY HELP!!!
Post by: RKTR on August 18, 2013, 09:43:42 pm
Another hard problem from the Essentials Textbook ~

A concert featuring a popular singer is scheduled to be held in a large open air theatre. The
promoter is concerned that rain will cause people to stay away. A weather forecaster
predicts that the probability of rain on any day at that particular time of the year is 0.33. If it
does not rain the promoter will make a profit of $250 000 on the concert. If it does rain the
profit will be reduced to $20 000. An insurance company agrees to insure the concert for
$250 000 against rain for a premium of $60 000. Should the promoter buy the insurance?

Thanks in advance :)
if the promoter doesnt buy the insurance
0.33 x 20000 + 0.67 x 250000 = $174100

if the promoter buys the insurance
0.33 x (20000 + 250000 -60000) + 0.67 x (250000 - 60000)
=0.33 x 210000 + 0.67 x 190000
= $196600

therefore, the promoter should buy the insurance.
Title: Re: PROBABILITY HELP!!!
Post by: TrueTears on August 18, 2013, 10:31:35 pm
ofcourse we are assuming 0% interest rates here ^_^
Title: Re: PROBABILITY HELP!!!
Post by: jack_chay on August 19, 2013, 07:10:42 pm
THANKYOU ~
Title: Re: PROBABILITY HELP!!!
Post by: jack_chay on August 19, 2013, 07:11:34 pm
AND LOL... yeah... im pretty sure its zero interest  >.<