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General Discussion => General Discussion Boards => News and Politics => Topic started by: Joseph41 on August 20, 2018, 05:09:12 pm

Title: How long will Turnbull last as Leader?
Post by: Joseph41 on August 20, 2018, 05:09:12 pm
Contemporary Australian politics. Characterised, perhaps more than anything else, by leadership instability and a revolving door of party leaders.

This has resulted also in a revolving door of Prime Ministers:

1996 - 2007: John Howard
2007 - 2010: Kevin Rudd [1]
2010 - 2013: Julia Gillard
2013 - 2013: Kevin Rudd [2]
2013 - 2015: Tony Abbott
2015 - Present: Malcolm Turnbull

So - six Prime Ministers in the last 11 years (if you include Rudd x2), and just Howard in the 11 years prior to that. A very interesting contrast.

As far as leadership of the Liberals goes, Turnbull has already been ousted once. For those who don't know, he was Leader of the Opposition from 2008-2009. Utegate (well worth a read if you're unfamiliar) really stuffed him (and helped Rudd, but that's another issue). Eventually, there was a leadership ballot between Turnbull, Abbott and Joe Hockey. Hockey was eliminated first, and Abbott eventually defeated Turnbull by a single vote. This was all very close - Hockey, for example, was tipped to win by many. Abbott was a bit of a shock.

Anyway, that's all very tangential. The purpose of this thread is to discuss Turnbull's leadership, and its position moving forward. Do you think he'll lead the Coalition to the next election? There have been rumblings of a Dutton challenge, which is what prompted this thread.

Thoughts? :)
Title: Re: How long will Turnbull last as Leader?
Post by: Aaron on August 20, 2018, 05:18:08 pm
Not much longer. I reckon the world is laughing at our political chaos. If not, they should be.

Question time is now the biggest joke on the political calendar. They literally just hurl insults at each other and read robot-like responses that (sometimes) answer the question. I used to be a regular streamer of QT on the parliament website but really got sick of the crap. This is meant to be our governing body and even THAT is embarassing.

Given there's a fed election potentially this year (if not late this year, then next).. I'd say he'd be lucky to lead the Coalition to it.. and when they lose (like I think they will), he'll resign or be booted.

If I had my way, he'd be booted immediately for his failure leadership re: NBN. FTTN/tech mix - The cheaper now more expensive alternative to FTTP which has been an absolute total disaster. We are meant to be progressive yet still have mediocre speeds.
Title: Re: How long will Turnbull last as Leader?
Post by: Joseph41 on August 20, 2018, 05:19:50 pm
Not much longer. I reckon the world is laughing at our political chaos. If not, they should be.

Question time is now the biggest joke on the political calendar. They literally just hurl insults at each other and read robot-like responses that (sometimes) answer the question. I used to be a regular streamer of QT on the parliament website but really got sick of the crap. This is meant to be our governing body and even THAT is embarassing.

Given there's a fed election potentially this year (if not late this year, then next).. I'd say he'd be lucky to lead the Coalition to it.. and when they lose (like I think they will), he'll resign or be booted.

Who's next in line for you? Do you think it'll be Dutton?

Definitely just feels like a conga line at the moment.
Title: Re: How long will Turnbull last as Leader?
Post by: Aaron on August 20, 2018, 05:23:23 pm
Who's next in line for you? Do you think it'll be Dutton?

Definitely just feels like a conga line at the moment.

Yeah. Step right up, you're next if you have the balls to stab your leader in the back.

It's a bloody joke - no wonder there are so many disengaged people re: politics. We need stable leadership and we have got anything but over the last decade.

I would bloody cringe if Dutton became PM. Realistically they should have somewhere a clause that states if there's a change in leadership, it should automatically trigger an election. Like.. I know we vote for a party rather than a leader, but the leader is the face and the representative for all.

You too can become the Prime Minister if you're a traitor! For the price of your dignity. $$ Love it.
Title: Re: How long will Turnbull last as Leader?
Post by: Joseph41 on August 20, 2018, 05:29:05 pm
Yeah. Step right up, you're next if you have the balls to stab your leader in the back.

It's a bloody joke - no wonder there are so many disengaged people re: politics. We need stable leadership and we have got anything but over the last decade.

I would bloody cringe if Dutton became PM. Realistically they should have somewhere a clause that states if there's a change in leadership, it should automatically trigger an election. Like.. I know we vote for a party rather than a leader, but the leader is the face and the representative for all.

You too can become the Prime Minister if you're a traitor! For the price of your dignity. $$ Love it.

I mean, who are the other options? Bishop? Morrison? Pyne? Andrews?

I prefer Turnbull to all.
Title: Re: How long will Turnbull last as Leader?
Post by: Aaron on August 20, 2018, 05:31:51 pm
I mean, who are the other options? Bishop? Morrison? Pyne? Andrews?

I prefer Turnbull to all.

Won't argue with that.

But like you said.. conga line. Those four are lining up ready to claim their prize, just need to figure out the order.

I'm sure it'll happen when Shorten becomes PM too. Somebody will get desperate. It's a joke.
Title: Re: How long will Turnbull last as Leader?
Post by: Joseph41 on August 20, 2018, 05:33:30 pm
I'm sure it'll happen when Shorten becomes PM too. Somebody will get desperate. It's a joke.

Already have been lots of whispers surrounding Albo (who I probs would have preferred at the time).
Title: Re: How long will Turnbull last as Leader?
Post by: fkkiwi on August 20, 2018, 06:05:22 pm
Australian politics is just a shambles (although it is by far the best reality TV on Australian television!) Asides the entertainment that QT provides these days, I certainly hope the Liberals stabilise themselves at the moment, rebels like Abbott are only accelerating the demise of the LNP and further destroying their chances of winning the next election. Hopefully Turnbull stays on, but who knows these days.

So glad I don't have to vote when I'm 18
Title: Re: How long will Turnbull last as Leader?
Post by: fun_jirachi on August 20, 2018, 06:31:58 pm
probably not long, australia needs to keep up its streak of pm's not serving a full term hahahaha
the last time a pm served a full term, it was john howard and the iPhone wasnt a thing
Title: Re: How long will Turnbull last as Leader?
Post by: Joseph41 on August 21, 2018, 09:32:01 am
It's on, folks. Far out.

Quote from: The Age
Malcolm Turnbull has declared the Liberal leadership is vacant and Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton has nominated.

There is an immediate contest for the Prime Minister's job and the deputy's position.

Mr Turnbull moved as soon as the Liberal party meeting began this morning.

It is a move to head off the growing momentum behind Mr Dutton.

More to come.

Source.
Title: Re: How long will Turnbull last as Leader?
Post by: S200 on August 21, 2018, 09:37:59 am
Dayum! Nothing like stability on capitol hill... :-\
Title: Re: How long will Turnbull last as Leader?
Post by: Joseph41 on August 21, 2018, 09:52:27 am
Dayum! Nothing like stability on capitol hill... :-\

Sounds like Turnbull has the numbers, but unconvincingly.

EDIT: And Dutton has resigned. Secondary spill incoming at some point?
Title: Re: How long will Turnbull last as Leader?
Post by: Joseph41 on August 21, 2018, 01:27:31 pm
Have ABC radio on as background noise at work.

The Dutton interview was an absolute circus lol.
Title: Re: How long will Turnbull last as Leader?
Post by: Aaron on August 21, 2018, 03:01:13 pm
Talk about timing. Selfish Dutton. Right thing to resign (or be pushed out, whatever floats your boat)
Title: Re: How long will Turnbull last as Leader?
Post by: Joseph41 on August 21, 2018, 03:14:20 pm
Talk about timing. Selfish Dutton. Right thing to resign (or be pushed out, whatever floats your boat)

Pretty bad result for Turnbull, though, despite winning. Wouldn't be surprised if Dutton challenges again in the very near future.
Title: Re: How long will Turnbull last as Leader?
Post by: Ellielh on August 21, 2018, 03:29:28 pm
I think we should just scrap all the ones lined up and get some new people. Recycling may work for the environment but not for a parliment ......
Title: Re: How long will Turnbull last as Leader?
Post by: Joseph41 on August 21, 2018, 03:34:54 pm
I think we should just scrap all the ones lined up and get some new people. Recycling my work for the environment but not for a parliment ......

It's pretty easy to feel disenfranchised, eh?
Title: Re: How long will Turnbull last as Leader?
Post by: K888 on August 21, 2018, 04:29:42 pm
It's pretty easy to feel disenfranchised, eh?
Penny Wong for PM pls 🙌

Honestly, just hoping like hell that Dutton doesn't become PM in the future. Easily my least favourite politician by a loooooong shot. Gives good ammunition for Betoota articles, though
Title: Re: How long will Turnbull last as Leader?
Post by: Joseph41 on August 21, 2018, 04:31:32 pm
Penny Wong for PM pls 🙌

Honestly, just hoping like hell that Dutton doesn't become PM in the future. Easily my least favourite politician by a loooooong shot. Gives good ammunition for Betoota articles, though

I don't think I've ever disagreed with Penny Wong.
Title: Re: How long will Turnbull last as Leader?
Post by: Poet on August 21, 2018, 08:27:23 pm
It's pretty easy to feel disenfranchised, eh?
Extremely.

Dutton’s behaviour, and that of the other politicians, is disgraceful. I feel like they’ve lost sight of their main responsibility – to represent and do what’s best for the people – and are instead intent on quarreling for what’s best at their political standpoint, or for personal ambitions. There will be flaws in every system, and every government. There cannot be constant squabbling and nit-picking.

A conga line indeed. Parliament right now is in shambles – it’s a joke.
Title: Re: How long will Turnbull last as Leader?
Post by: PhoenixxFire on August 21, 2018, 09:04:47 pm
It’s getting even more ridiculous. Five frontbenchers just quit (although Turnbull has yet to accept their resignations)
Title: Re: How long will Turnbull last as Leader?
Post by: spectroscopy on August 21, 2018, 11:04:34 pm
word on the street is if Sinodinos wasn't on sick leave and was there, Malcolm would've got at least 7 more votes and Turnbull calling the spill today with a significantly more vulnerable party dynamic was a total power move
Title: Re: How long will Turnbull last as Leader?
Post by: turinturambar on August 21, 2018, 11:07:52 pm
It’s getting even more ridiculous. Five frontbenchers just quit (although Turnbull has yet to accept their resignations)

Sounds like a bad situation getting worse.

Probably more I'm missing, but I'm struggling to see the logic from that article of a (presumably conservative) front-bencher resigning and saying "Our conservative base strongly feel that their voice has been eroded. They needed some demonstrable indication that there are conservative voices around your cabinet table."
How exactly is Turnbull meant to appoint conservative voices to his cabinet if conservatives all resign?

I was also amused when the Guardian asked someone in Dutton's seat about the leadership challenge and got this response: "Oh, is he the member here? That’s probably really bad of me, I didn’t know. I know a lot of people don’t like him, so that’s probably a good thing he’s not prime minister then."
(here)
Title: Re: How long will Turnbull last as Leader?
Post by: literally lauren on August 23, 2018, 10:01:08 am
Update: ministers fleeing sinking ship

Won't somebody think of the real victims in all this - the VCE Australian Politics students. As though a new study design wasn't enough of a challenge :'(

literally Q1 on last year's Auspol exam
(https://i.imgur.com/9ojYpNr.png)
Title: Re: How long will Turnbull last as Leader?
Post by: Poet on August 23, 2018, 10:06:55 am
Update: ministers fleeing sinking ship

Won't somebody think of the real victims in all this - the VCE Australian Politics students. As though a new study design wasn't enough of a challenge :'(

literally Q1 on last year's Auspol exam
(https://i.imgur.com/9ojYpNr.png)
(http://michaelsmithnews.typepad.com/.a/6a0177444b0c2e970d022ad38ad917200d-pi)

They keep trying to pressure Turnbull into another spill. This is actually painful to watch.
Parliament is melting. Here's why and what happens next.
Title: Re: How long will Turnbull last as Leader?
Post by: EEEEEEP on August 23, 2018, 10:10:13 am
Turnbull is as gone as much as a dead duck :P

NO one can save the liberals (Maybe bishop), but still, the party is fractured.
Title: Re: How long will Turnbull last as Leader?
Post by: Joseph41 on August 23, 2018, 10:12:18 am
Update: ministers fleeing sinking ship

Won't somebody think of the real victims in all this - the VCE Australian Politics students. As though a new study design wasn't enough of a challenge :'(

literally Q1 on last year's Auspol exam
(https://i.imgur.com/9ojYpNr.png)

Me reacting to that spoiler:

(https://i.imgur.com/z8rPlQD.gif)
Title: Re: How long will Turnbull last as Leader?
Post by: K888 on August 23, 2018, 10:43:32 am
When was the last time we had a PM make it through a full term without being knifed?

Title: Re: How long will Turnbull last as Leader?
Post by: Joseph41 on August 23, 2018, 11:49:22 am
When was the last time we had a PM make it through a full term without being knifed?



Howard.
Title: Re: How long will Turnbull last as Leader?
Post by: Joseph41 on August 23, 2018, 01:03:53 pm
Party meeting likely to be held tomorrow at midday (on the assumption Dutton is eligible).
Title: Re: How long will Turnbull last as Leader?
Post by: K888 on August 23, 2018, 04:35:14 pm
Have heard that Bishop will run for the Liberal leadership. How will this change things?
Title: Re: How long will Turnbull last as Leader?
Post by: Joseph41 on August 23, 2018, 04:40:12 pm
Have heard that Bishop will run for the Liberal leadership. How will this change things?

Haven't heard this yet - source?
Title: Re: How long will Turnbull last as Leader?
Post by: Sine on August 23, 2018, 04:45:30 pm
^^ABC news confirmed it on twitter 12 mins ago
Title: Re: How long will Turnbull last as Leader?
Post by: Joseph41 on August 23, 2018, 04:50:53 pm
^^ABC news confirmed it on twitter 12 mins ago

ty! Really interesting development, that!
Title: Re: How long will Turnbull last as Leader?
Post by: www on August 23, 2018, 05:28:39 pm
Party meeting likely to be held tomorrow at midday (on the assumption Dutton is eligible).

Update on this: Dutton has avoided referral to the High Court regarding his eligibility; voted down 68-69. Turnbull voted against the referral.
Title: Re: How long will Turnbull last as Leader?
Post by: Aaron on August 23, 2018, 05:47:25 pm
This is bloody pathetic.

If I wanted any of those three to become leader, it'd be Julie Bishop. She's been a (somewhat) loyal deputy and has been in that role for quite some time now.

God, anybody but Dutton. Please.

P.S - Libs are gonna get absolutely smashed @ next election. Good riddens.
Title: Re: How long will Turnbull last as Leader?
Post by: Lear on August 23, 2018, 06:14:08 pm

God, anybody but Dutton. Please.

Inb4 Tony Abbot LOL
Title: Re: How long will Turnbull last as Leader?
Post by: jamonwindeyer on August 23, 2018, 06:18:33 pm
Inb4 Tony Abbot LOL

Inb4 John Howard makes a triumphant return (the last PM to finish their full term, right?)
Title: Re: How long will Turnbull last as Leader?
Post by: spectroscopy on August 23, 2018, 07:18:14 pm
after so many years of howard people started complaining about him but boiii it has been an absolute shitfest since kevin 07
Title: Re: How long will Turnbull last as Leader?
Post by: Joseph41 on August 24, 2018, 11:26:25 am
Dutton has just delivered the petition. 43 signatures.
Title: Re: How long will Turnbull last as Leader?
Post by: K888 on August 24, 2018, 11:41:22 am
Dutton has just delivered the petition. 43 signatures.
Word is that Fifield has switched to backing Morrison.

Interesting that all conversations on the news have been about Dutton vs Morrison - people seem to be dismissing Bishop very early although admitting that she's the most popular of the 3 amongst voters

ABC just said there's only the bare minimum 43 signatures and the 43rd is Warren Entsch who just wants things to be over
Title: Re: How long will Turnbull last as Leader?
Post by: Joseph41 on August 24, 2018, 11:44:27 am
Word is that Fifield has switched to backing Morrison.

Interesting that all conversations on the news have been about Dutton vs Morrison - people seem to be dismissing Bishop very early although admitting that she's the most popular of the 3 amongst voters

ABC just said there's only the bare minimum 43 signatures and the 43rd is Warren Entsch who just wants things to be over

Yeah, sounds like Entsch is pretty disenfranchised by the whole thing. Turnbull also asking for verification of signatures lol.
Title: Re: How long will Turnbull last as Leader?
Post by: Aaron on August 24, 2018, 11:54:55 am
Sounds like a good idea. Somebody who is desperate for the top job could do anything.... I wouldn't say forging is out of the question... It's already messy.
Title: Re: How long will Turnbull last as Leader?
Post by: EEEEEEP on August 24, 2018, 12:04:56 pm
The party is too fractured right now. Penny Wong is right ! The liberal party does now know that it wants to be and everything is pulling it in different directions really.

HAHHAH. What a joke . What the heck... even bishop is running for PM as well...:. MALCOLM is gone
Title: Re: How long will Turnbull last as Leader?
Post by: Joseph41 on August 24, 2018, 12:38:22 pm
45-40 for the spill. Amazingly low numbers.
Title: Re: How long will Turnbull last as Leader?
Post by: Aaron on August 24, 2018, 12:44:37 pm
Nice.. So the person who now runs our country is decided by the folks in suits (Yes, i'm aware not everybody wears a suit).

This is just crap. No wonder why people disengage from politics. Dirty, doesn't really do what they were elected to do, can't answer questions without giving a generic & robotic spiel....... the list goes on.

45-40 is not convincing at all. Sure it's a slight majority but jesus.. still 40 people don't want to see change. Think of all the constituents they represent.

Edit: Bishop out... that's sad. She's been the deputy for a long time and probably deserves it after this time.
Title: Re: How long will Turnbull last as Leader?
Post by: www on August 24, 2018, 12:51:44 pm
Scott Morrison is now the Liberal leader and PM, 45 to 40.

This whole thing was a mess.
Title: Re: How long will Turnbull last as Leader?
Post by: Aaron on August 24, 2018, 12:53:01 pm
Scott Morrison is now the Liberal leader and PM, 45 to 40.

This whole thing was a mess.

Thank god for that. Best of a worst case scenario.
Title: Re: How long will Turnbull last as Leader?
Post by: sdfg on August 24, 2018, 01:06:45 pm
Does anyone know the likelihood of an election being called (or if there's any mention of having one)?
Title: Re: How long will Turnbull last as Leader?
Post by: K888 on August 24, 2018, 01:09:22 pm
Anyone know the likelihood of an election being called (or if there's any mention of having one)?
Was watching the ABC and they didn't think it'd be called soon - it has to happen by mid-May next year I think so they thought the most likely time would be beginning of May, as the Victorian state election is in November and the NSW election in March.
Title: Re: How long will Turnbull last as Leader?
Post by: Joseph41 on August 24, 2018, 01:13:02 pm
Anyone know the likelihood of an election being called (or if there's any mention of having one)?

Can't see the Coalition rushing into it. Would imagine they'd leave it as long as they can.
Title: Re: How long will Turnbull last as Leader?
Post by: S200 on August 24, 2018, 04:26:34 pm
Well, as I see it, you either have money management or people management.
I still think we need the money management here for a bit (so libs).
Title: Re: How long will Turnbull last as Leader?
Post by: Aaron on August 24, 2018, 04:52:15 pm
Well, as I see it, you either have money management or people management.
I still think we need the money management here for a bit (so libs).

money management, lol........ Libs have blown the debt out a further few hundred of mil since they entered office. And yes, you can argue they have to spend more to save more in the long run but yeah..

They are no better than Labor.
Title: Re: How long will Turnbull last as Leader?
Post by: vox nihili on August 24, 2018, 05:42:50 pm
money management, lol........ Libs have blown the debt out a further few hundred of mil since they entered office. And yes, you can argue they have to spend more to save more in the long run but yeah..

They are no better than Labor.

Minor point, but they're actually worse. There's been a little bit of pretty good work to look the policies of either party (historically) and examine what impact they had on the economy and Labor well and truly outperformed the Libs*




*past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Title: Re: How long will Turnbull last as Leader?
Post by: turinturambar on August 24, 2018, 11:34:25 pm
45-40 is not convincing at all. Sure it's a slight majority but jesus.. still 40 people don't want to see change. Think of all the constituents they represent.

As they say, democracy is the recurrent suspicion that more than half the people are right more than half of the time.
Title: Re: How long will Turnbull last as Leader?
Post by: turinturambar on August 25, 2018, 08:21:40 pm
And now it seems that Madame Tussauds Sydney have stopped work on a wax figure of Malcolm Turnbull (intended to be unveiled in October on his birthday).
And they won't be doing one of Morrison just yet:
Quote
The museum has now lost confidence in the ability of Australian politics to retain a leader long enough to build their likeness out of wax.

"Due to the high turnover of prime ministers, we cannot see ourselves making a figure of a sitting Australian prime minister again," Mr Connolly said. (source)