ATAR Notes: Forum

VCE Stuff => VCE Mathematics => VCE Mathematics/Science/Technology => VCE Subjects + Help => VCE Mathematical Methods CAS => Topic started by: menashiiii on November 07, 2010, 04:57:31 pm

Title: Markov Chains - help! and also a suprise for you all ;)
Post by: menashiiii on November 07, 2010, 04:57:31 pm: seriously screwed if there are some!
can someone please run through the basics of it!
please!

and also
guys, check this out ;)

the year 12 video me and my mate made :D

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KbECymuAEXM
Title: Re: Markov Chains - help! and also a suprise for you all ;)
Post by: Elnino_Gerrard on November 07, 2010, 05:10:43 pm: Haha Could defs have done without the last bit tho :P
Title: Re: Markov Chains - help! and also a suprise for you all ;)
Post by: lachymm on November 07, 2010, 05:18:11 pm: you were having phaggy time?

EDIT: i spose i should tell you that markov chains are simple, from what i understand they are always 2 x 2 matrix

Lets say someone goes to the beach 40% of the time if they went to the pool last week and go to pool 55% of the time if they went to the beach last week...(Made up)

Then $\frac{|.6 .55|}{|.4 .45|}$ Top left is percentage of going to the pool given they had just went to the pool while bottom right is the probability of going to the beach given they had just went to the beach. Then fill in the columns as they must add upto 1

Then add in the initial state Eg whether the person went to the beach or the pool initially and then use an appropriate "to the power sign" above the matrix we figured out before and your right to go :D
Title: Re: Markov Chains - help! and also a suprise for you all ;)
Post by: menashiiii on November 07, 2010, 07:20:01 pm: hahaha
thats awesome but!
ohh boy they were ;)

thanks dude!

but what if it says for a long period of time/long term?
how do i work that out?
Title: Re: Markov Chains - help! and also a suprise for you all ;)
Post by: JinXi on November 07, 2010, 07:27:56 pm: Let the 2x2 matrix(transitional matrix)^n, and let n be a large value for long term.