ATAR Notes: Forum
General Discussion => General Discussion Boards => News and Politics => Topic started by: excal on May 01, 2009, 11:26:05 am
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http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hZVkRqV2uZVim0TRk5R1ZBfovTCAD97T2Q600
To be honest, I'm kinda worried - but at the same time, hopeful that it won't be as severe as the media have put it (given the current mortality rates in developed nations).
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257 confirmed cases, 13 confirmed dead.
That's a 5% mortality so far. The numbers are small, so this prediction is not so accurate.
As far as I know, the 1918 flu had a mortality rate of 2.5-5%, and infected nearly the entire population of the world. This means about 100 million people died.
But in 1918, while the war was raging, the British officers just thought it was a harmless flu, and did not have any preparation. It seems we are a lot more prepared now though.
Whatever happens in the next few days could have a massive influence on the number of deaths. If the flu can be contained before it mutates again then it can be stopped. If not, then it will spread exponentially, through birds, humans and pigs, and the only safe place on the earth will be Madagascar.
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/0 didn't you say someone in our school had swine flu?
gg
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My grandma is going overseas in a a week or two :(
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/0 didn't you say someone in our school had swine flu?
gg
Oh shit, that's right.
At least Norman's staying home though... hopefully no one else contracted it.
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I think it'll always be worse in countries like Mexico which have relatively high amounts of impoverished people compared to say, Australia where life expectancy/nutrition/health care/etc. is very good. There is some risk, of course, but I'm not worried quite yet.
It's surprising that it seems to target people from about 25-40 (or whatever it was) though.
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/0 didn't you say someone in our school had swine flu?
gg
Oh shit, that's right.
At least Norman's staying home though... hopefully no one else contracted it.
The coward was in my chem class today, maybe he gave it to me :S
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eh nothing to panic about
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oh and its not mexican flu... swine influenza......
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I think it'll always be worse in countries like Mexico which have relatively high amounts of impoverished people compared to say, Australia where life expectancy/nutrition/health care/etc. is very good. There is some risk, of course, but I'm not worried quite yet.
It's surprising that it seems to target people from about 25-40 (or whatever it was) though.
I think they said since the immune system doesn't have the antibodies, it overreacts or something, and that's what actually kills you. So people who are healthier and who have better immune systems suffer more, supposedly.
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eh....... are you sure.......lol doesnt sound right
i thought it caused death from if you have a severe reaction to it and it travels to your lungs and you die from respiratory failure or pneumonia ....but normally you would be able to kill it.....
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How did it start? ( no time to read the article :D)
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oh haha just saw ur sig /0
if you can read this, then you are pro
but it really doesnt make sense
if psou han reazth tiis, tien psou are pro
lol
i think it started when human came to close to pig and somehow it mutated and went into human, then he got flu and then he upchooed and someone else got the virus and then that spread around... and then people go oh shit this is not normal flu and then media hypes it up to extreme, then someone posts on vcenotes.... =)
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oh haha just saw ur sig /0
if you can read this, then you are pro
but it really doesnt make sense
if psou han reazth tiis, tien psou are pro
lol
i think it started when human came to close to pig and somehow it mutated and went into human, then he got flu and then he upchooed and someone else got the virus and then that spread around... and then people go oh shit this is not normal flu and then media hypes it up to extreme, then someone posts on vcenotes.... =)
you nearly got it :P
if you can read this, then you are pr0
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eh same thing lol
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listen to this
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9zEedwgdum4
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I think it'll always be worse in countries like Mexico which have relatively high amounts of impoverished people compared to say, Australia where life expectancy/nutrition/health care/etc. is very good. There is some risk, of course, but I'm not worried quite yet.
It's surprising that it seems to target people from about 25-40 (or whatever it was) though.
I think they said since the immune system doesn't have the antibodies, it overreacts or something, and that's what actually kills you. So people who are healthier and who have better immune systems suffer more, supposedly.
This: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytokine_storm
This is what is believed to be the reason why the 1918 pandemic (Spanish Flu, 50% of global population was infected) was so severe. I haven't yet come across any demographic of the deceased, but I don't believe there are enough data out there to confirm either ways... It's still too early to tell.
But at least we're not completely unprepared. :)
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Here's an opinion I've read that seems plausible: the pandemic doesn't hit us now. In the change of season coming up (winter --> spring for us), it might resurface in the flu season and become a lot more severe
Source: http://www.pediatricsupersite.com/view.aspx?rid=39382 [though I'm not sure how much I should trust this, it certainly does seem a very possible alternative]
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Mao are we all gonna die? 8-)
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Death, is only the beginning... 8-)
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I'm not worried at all.
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why the fcuk doesnt the stupid WHO raise the level to 6??
instead of waiting for more ppl do die....
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They've already set criteria as to what defines what level of epidemic, and apparently it hasn't quite met the one for level 6.
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Whilst using public transport I've been trying to stay away from Mexicans, however I find it difficult to identify them without sombreros :(
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Whilst using public transport I've been trying to stay away from Mexicans, however I find it difficult to identify them without sombreros :(
LOL
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My friends who were standing up on a bus due to how packed it was had a dialogue as follows;
A: Hey 'sup, how are you going?
B: Oh, things are good. I just got back from Mexico. *coughcough*
Within a minute, they had plenty more seats near them than they needed.
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My friends who were standing up on a bus due to how packed it was had a dialogue as follows;
A: Hey 'sup, how are you going?
B: Oh, things are good. I just got back from Mexico. *coughcough*
Within a minute, they had plenty more seats near them than they needed.
haha
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be funny if you scattered sneezing powder on the bus/tram/tube
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Imagine if there was a huge outbreak in Australia of the Mexican flu.
Then they would make everyone stay at home and I wouldn't have to go to Uni (YES!).
But the likelihood of an outbreak happenning in Australia , I say would have to be small.
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I've got it
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Imagine if there was a huge outbreak in Australia of the Mexican flu.
Then they would make everyone stay at home and I wouldn't have to go to Uni (YES!).
But the likelihood of an outbreak happenning in Australia , I say would have to be small.
If there is going to be a huge outbreak, not going to uni would be the least of your worries.
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UK commentator James Delingpole thinks the risk of getting H1N1 is negligible [even in Mexico] and it's a typical government-hyped scare-story, especially welcome for govts as it's a distraction from the economic crisis [which, unlike the flu, reflects badly on them.]
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/james_delingpole/blog/2009/04/27/journalist_dies_oinking_horribly_after_failing_to_take_swine_flu_seriously
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The flu actually seems to have stimulated the economy too due to people stockpiling food, meds such as anti-virals and stuff, although I still believe governments are reacting appropriately regardless of this perhaps second motive if it ever was one. The risks associated with an outbreak actually occurring seem too high to play around with.
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UK commentator James Delingpole thinks the risk of getting H1N1 is negligible [even in Mexico] and it's a typical government-hyped scare-story, especially welcome for govts as it's a distraction from the economic crisis [which, unlike the flu, reflects badly on them.]
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/james_delingpole/blog/2009/04/27/journalist_dies_oinking_horribly_after_failing_to_take_swine_flu_seriously
even though australia should be on alert and cautious.... i believe this.... its only slightly more virulent than the normal flu
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I think the major concern is the novelty of this particular strain. It's not like seasonal flu, structurally
Funnily enough, one of my major assessments for BMS1021 is an essay on avian influenza.
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Every1 who has the cold at school is said to have swine flu=.= when its just a common winter cold.
PEOPLE make a big deal out of it!!!
People...like me. :)
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Because it's funny.
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As Glockmeister said, it's the fact that the viral structure is brand new, and there is no vaccine for it. From what I understand, the virus itself seems to be milder than seasonal flu - but as the 'flu virus mutates rapidly, it can easily become one that causes a serious pandemic. Hence the concern.
I'm gonna stick to the mantra - be alert, not alarmed (haven't we heard this one before? :P)
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Swine flu is not casue by PIGS get it righttt people!!!
Continue to eat pork.
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did anyone say they were not eating pork?
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I dont think so lol
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http://jamesfallows.theatlantic.com/archives/2009/05/flu_news_from_china_detention.php
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25424854-401,00.html
China makes me giggle.
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H1N1 is not going to be a huge deal if it spreads in Australia. People die from the flu every year, which is horrible but an unfortunate fact of life. However, if it spreads in any third-world countries where people are less healthy, it could be really devastating.
I think it's just scary because it is respiratory, so you can't really control transmission. Unlike AIDS and malaria and stuff where you can take at least some preventative measures.
Also, I thought it was kind of funny that the government has bought 40 million face mask things. A face mask will protect you from infection for 2 hours. So that's 4 hours, everybody!
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I think it's funny how everyone who goes into America needs to have their fingerprint taken. Imagine the lack of hygiene! Thousands to millions of people from around the world using the same scanner... I hate airports.
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H1N1 is not going to be a huge deal if it spreads in Australia. People die from the flu every year, which is horrible but an unfortunate fact of life. However, if it spreads in any third-world countries where people are less healthy, it could be really devastating.
I think it's just scary because it is respiratory, so you can't really control transmission. Unlike AIDS and malaria and stuff where you can take at least some preventative measures.
Also, I thought it was kind of funny that the government has bought 40 million face mask things. A face mask will protect you from infection for 2 hours. So that's 4 hours, everybody!
If it were able to get a foothold in the country, it would be a huge deal. "Swine Flu" (a.k.a. North American Flu) has a different structure compared to normal seasonal flu. Thus, people have no immunity from it, which makes it quite scary.
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people build immunity to it......
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people build immunity to it......
of course. The ones who don't die, that is.
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yeah and how many died!? like something around 21!!!! so far
very low number! considering the big fcken hype about crapola
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people build immunity to it......
so does the flu. Way faster than we can.
yeah and how many died!? like something around 21!!!! so far
very low number! considering the big fcken hype about crapola
The number of people infected with influenza really isn't relevant in terms of what is a "pandemic" or "epidemic". Rather, it is the geographical spread of the virus.
You got to remember that getting a confirmed diagnosis of this flu isn't just merely a blood test to your local pathologist. There are specific labs which have the WHO accreditation and only they can diagnose avian influenza. I remember reading somewhere that as a result of this recent case, there is a back log of testing to be done and as a result they are about a week or so of cases still to be tested. Basically this means that the number of infected or dead is basically a week behind, which you can't rely on, if there is a rapid spread of infection.
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a week behind wat so now its 50 dead? .... yes new viruses are potentially deadly but i believe this virus has been way exaggerated by media......
anyway ok lets go with wat u say .... lets be on the look out which u really cant be viruses are all around the environment....and worry that it will spread to australia and we all die .... the end...........
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a week behind wat so now its 50 dead? .... yes new viruses are potentially deadly but i believe this virus has been way exaggerated by media......
anyway ok lets go with wat u say .... lets be on the look out which u really cant be viruses are all around the environment....and worry that it will spread to australia and we all die .... the end...........
Viruses are everywhere, but these are viruses we've encountered before, they are not of too much harm, because most of us have already built certain levels of immunity to those.
When you encounter new viruses that we have not seen before, the body does not have any immunity, and the result can be deadly. The virus may only have a small deathcount now, but that does not mean it is not dangerous. Take a look at the Spanish flu in 1918, thought to be an avian influenza that killed a third of the population of Europe.
It is not how many are killed, it's the proportion of death in confirmed cases. Think back to SARS, only ~3000 people died from the outburst, more people die of diarrhea each year than that number. But because of the deadliness of the disease, had it not been contained, the half the world could've perished.
Hence why it's a massive media hype, people need to be aware. And the better controlled the flu is, the better news for us. [However, some thinks that it'll come back as a much more severe flu next flu season... =\]
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The instance of death isn't particularly high either
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The instance of death isn't particularly high either
It was at one point greater than 2%. if it became a world pandemic, and say, half the population was infected, more than 60 million people would die.
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the 1918 flu was way different then the one right now ... so comparing the two is just pointless
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They're quite close actually. They're in the same genus.
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different virulence
this strain is more like a normal seasonal flu...
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actually, in terms of virulence, it's probably worse than the run-of-the-mill flu (which is still quite deadly, mind you).
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i said it was more like , i didnt say it was, yes it is a bit worse but anyway dont stress... i hope you weren't one of those people who bought a surgical mask...
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not really, but we did have a discussion on infection control with the family. That's probably more useful than masks.
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lol yeah
if your really interested which you probably aren't go pick up some microbiology books theres a whole stack of info on microbial control and how to disinfect and what works on what and things like that...
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just reading some stuff and here's some snips of info
"At this point, the virus is more like regular influenza and doesn't show signs of changing," said Peter Palese, professor and chair of microbiology at Mt. Sinai Medical Center in New York and an expert on the 1918 strain.
As scientists unravel the genetic makeup of swine flu strains collected in Mexico, the U.S. and New Zealand, they are relieved to find differences between the 1918 strain and the current strain that suggest a lower potential for severe illness. Some experts suggest the virus may be mutating into a less dangerous form as it spreads.
"It might be losing its steam," said Bellur Prabhakar, professor and head of microbiology and immunology at the University of Illinois at Chicago. "What we're seeing in the United States has us hoping that the pandemic may not be as bad."
So far, while swine flu appears to spread faster and easier than avian flu, it has been dramatically less deadly.
Back in 1976, the administration of then-president Gerald Ford, on the advice of the CDC, initiated a mass vaccination program, inoculating more than 43 million people (25 percent of the population). But that undertaking resulted in serious side effects, most notably an estimated 500 cases of a rare condition called Guillain-Barre syndrome, including 25 related deaths.
The debacle -- where vaccination actually caused more trouble than the flu itself -- forced the resignation of the director of the CDC.
This time around, "it looks like the CDC is evaluating that lesson very carefully," Hsu remarked. "They've been watching very carefully and evaluating the investment of a vaccine."
Given the time in which they lived and the resources available, health officials responded relatively quickly to the 1976 version of swine flu, said DiFerdinando, who was acting commissioner of health for New Jersey during another public health emergency, the 2001 anthrax attacks.
Still, the current outbreak also illustrates how far public health responses have progressed since 1976, Lillibridge said.
The CDC's rapid and constantly updated response to the outbreak was first in evidence during the 2003 SARS outbreak, and "it's happening again here in 2009," he said
"The severity depends on whether [and how] the genotype of the virus reassorts itself," Horovitz added. The reassortment may be so minimal as to make no clinical difference, or it could assert itself in entirely new ways."
But a vaccine will likely be ready by the time a second wave hits, Ostrosky noted, and the world is prepared in other ways as well.
"We have completely sequenced the genome of the virus, and it shows low virulence at this point. We know about it. We can prepare," he said. "If nothing else, this has been an extraordinary exercise in preparation."
1. Is the swine flu outbreak in the United States winding down?
Not yet. Health officials expect to see more cases.
However, there are two reasons to think the 2009 H1N1 outbreak will wind down in the coming weeks. First, cases of influenza tend to dwindle when the weather gets warmer. Second, the 2009 H1N1 virus outbreak in Mexico has reached its peak, and numbers there are going down. It is expected that same pattern could happen in the United States.
But many experts believe it's highly unlikely there would be an outbreak anything like 1918. First of all, scientists have a much better understanding of infectious diseases, and health care has improved greatly since 1918. Secondly, the 2009 H1N1 lacks a gene that is present in highly virulent flu viruses, such as the one in 1918.
"I don't think this virus has what it takes to become a major problem," says Peter Palese, chairman of the department of microbiology at Mount Sinai School of Medicine in New York.
Johns Hopkins' Pekosz adds that people remember the horrific 1918 flu season, but often forget that the two other flu outbreaks caused by new viruses, the ones in 1957 and 1968, were far more mild.
just an article... btw its not just talking about the swine flu
Scientists learn why the flu may turn deadly
May 4th, 2009 As the swine flu continues its global spread, researchers from the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, have discovered important clues about why influenza is more severe in some people than it is in others.
In their research study published online in the Journal of Leukocyte Biology, the scientists show that the influenza virus can actually paralyze the immune systems of otherwise healthy individuals, leading to severe secondary bacterial infections, such as pneumonia. Furthermore, this immunological paralysis can be long-lived, which is important to know when developing treatment strategies to combat the virus.
According to Kathleen Sullivan, M.D., Ph.D., the senior researcher involved in the study and Chief of the Division of Allergy and Immunology at the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, "We have a very limited understanding of why some people who get influenza simply have a bad cold and other people become very sick and even die. The results of this study give us a much better sense of the mechanisms underlying bacterial infections arising on top of the viral infection."
Sullivan and colleagues recruited pediatric patients with severe influenza and examined the level of cytokines, which serve as the first line initiators of immune response, in the blood plasma. Although they found elevated levels of cytokines, they also found a decreased response of toll-like receptors, which activate immune cell responses as a result of invading microbes. This suggests that the diminished response of these receptors may be responsible for the paralysis of the immune system, leading to secondary bacterial infections.
The influenza patients were compared with patients with moderate influenza, respiratory syncytial virus, and a control group of healthy individuals. The immune paralysis appeared to be specifically a result of influenza infection and was not seen in patients with respiratory syncytial virus. This process might explain why one quarter of children who die from influenza, die from a bacterial infection occurring on top of the virus.
"Despite major medical advances since the devastating flu outbreak of 1918 and 1919, influenza virus infection remains a very serious threat," said John Wherry, Ph.D., Deputy Editor of the Journal of Leukocyte Biology, "and the current swine flu outbreak is a grim reminder of this fact. The work by Dr. Sullivan and colleagues brings us a step closer to understanding exactly what goes wrong in some people who get the flu, so, ultimately, physicians can develop more effective treatment strategies."
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(http://graphjam.files.wordpress.com/2009/05/song-chart-memes-out-proportion.jpg)
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it has hit Australia guys.
http://news.brisbanetimes.com.au/breaking-news-national/first-aussie-swine-flu-case-confirmed-20090509-ayc9.html
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(http://graphjam.files.wordpress.com/2009/05/song-chart-memes-out-proportion.jpg)
haha yeah
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(http://punditkitchen.files.wordpress.com/2009/05/political-pictures-lauer-piggy-swine-flu.jpg)
Source: http://punditkitchen.com/