ATAR Notes: Forum
VCE Stuff => VCE Mathematics => VCE Mathematics/Science/Technology => VCE Subjects + Help => VCE Mathematical Methods CAS => Topic started by: baddin on October 09, 2012, 06:31:17 pm
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How would I solve this question using Markov Chains?
Suppose that it is known that the probability of the Liberal party winning an election if they are already in power is 0.6, and the probability of the Labor party winning the election if they are already in power is 0.65. If the Liberal party is already in power:
a) What is the probability of the Liberal party winning the next two elections?
b) What is the probability of the Labor party winning the next two elections?
The only way I can solve it is by a tree diagram :(, I tried doing
[0.65, 0.35] [0.4, 0.6 ] * [1] with no luck.
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How would I solve this question using Markov Chains?
Suppose that it is known that the probability of the Liberal party winning an election if they are already in power is 0.6, and the probability of the Labor party winning the election if they are already in power is 0.65. If the Liberal party is already in power:
a) What is the probability of the Liberal party winning the next two elections?
b) What is the probability of the Labor party winning the next two elections?
Liberal --Liberal = 0.6
Liberal --Labor = 0.4
Labor --Labor = 0.65
Labor --Liberal = 0.35
You don't use transition matricies for this question.
Markov-chains =/= Transition-Matrix
Pr(Liberal next 2) = Pr(Lib Lib Lib) = 1*0.6*0.6 = 0.36
Pr(Labor next 2) =Pr(Lib Lab Lab) = 1*0.4*0.65=0.26
A tree-diagram would've helped you with this question!!!
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How would I solve this question using Markov Chains?
Suppose that it is known that the probability of the Liberal party winning an election if they are already in power is 0.6, and the probability of the Labor party winning the election if they are already in power is 0.65. If the Liberal party is already in power:
a) What is the probability of the Liberal party winning the next two elections?
b) What is the probability of the Labor party winning the next two elections?
Liberal --Liberal = 0.6
Liberal --Labor = 0.4
Labor --Labor = 0.65
Labor --Liberal = 0.35
You don't use transition matricies for this question.
Markov-chains = Transition-Matrix
Pr(Liberal next 2) = Pr(Lib Lib Lib) = 1*0.6*0.6 = 0.36
Pr(Labor next 2) =Pr(Lib Lab Lab) = 1*0.4*0.65=0.26
A tree-diagram would've helped you with this question!!!
Thanks for you help!! :D
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Thanks