TRENDS seasonal versus cyclical

[horizon]

I'm having trouble distinguishing between the two.

For e.g.

Answer is A, but I thought it was C.

If you have some data where the peaks occur at regular intervals but for MORE than a year, then is it seasonal or cyclical?
Thanks guys.

[Tashi]

It appears the trend is down-up-down ever 3 quarters, therefore it must be cyclical as seasonal would be shown as 4 quarters. Quarter 8 (the end of year 2) shows a slight increase while quarter 12 (end of year 3) shows a slight decrease, meaning the times of the year do not affect the trend so it is not seasonal.

[99.96]

this is how i would do it.
the first peak is in the 2nd quarter.
so for the trend to be seasonal, the peaks should occur every 2 quarters.
so the next peak should be at 4th quarter, but its not. So its not seasonal.
its obviously not E,D or B either so i'd go with A

[lolaser]

The way we can tell that this is most definitely not Seasonal variation is that the variation cycles are over a time period that is greater than a year. VCAA define seasonal variation as not being able to exceed one year, so if for instance the cycle is over 1.5 years as it is in this question it cannot be seasonal.

Therefore it must be cyclical. However if those quarters were to be replaced with months, then it would be seasonal as it would be twice yearly. Hope this helps.

[horizon]

Yes that makes much more sense, thank you veryyyyy much!!!!!!!!