Hey guys!
could someone help me with this?
Q. Sharelle is the goal shooter for her netball team. During her matches, she has many attempts at scoring a goal. Assume that each attempt at scoring a goal is independent of any other attempt. In the long term, her scoring rate has been shown to be 80% (that is, 8 out of 10 attempts to score a goal are successful). What is the probability, correct to three decimal places, that her first 4 attempts at scoring a goal are successful, given that exactly 6 of her first 8 attempts at scoring a goal in a match are successful?
Thanks!
Let S = Success
Pr(S) = 0.8
You want to find Pr(4S) given that Pr(6 of 8 are successful).
This is also [Pr(4S) intersection Pr(6of8)]/Pr(6of8) --> The Pr(AintB)/Pr(B) formula
To find Pr(4S):
Every shot has to be successful in the first four tries, so we only calculate the probability of succeeding, that is:
(0.8 )^4 = 0.4096
To find Pr(6of8):
This is a binomial distribution. So input into your calc binomCdf(8,0.8,6,8) = 0.7969
To find Pr(4S)intPr(6of8):
This is just the probability of 4 successes coupled with 2 of 4 successes in the next 4 tries.
= (0.8 )^4 x binomPdf(4,0.8,2)
= 0.0629
Final Calculation: 0.0629/0.7969 = 0.07895