Something I don't understand - all those who receive 99+ are guaranteed a full-fee place into the MD should they so choose it. There are 400 people in Biomed who have all received above 99, not to mention ~20 (guessing) in Science who all want to do the MD.
There's likely to be many more wanting to do MD in science who have scores just under that of biomed. I know of 6 people that come to mind. I'd place my bets on 100-200 that will actually be competitors for the high scores needed for md.
Ok, let's say that around 400 of the biomed students want to do graduate medicine at Melbourne.
Now let's go 300 of the science students want to do graduate medicine.
Now outside the university, there are probably around 1000 applicants (interstate, other universities + NZ)
They are all competing for 205 CSP places (given that around 50 of the 255 are already taken)
205/1700 x 100 = 12.0588235% chance of getting a CSP if all applicants are considered to have an equal chance.
This even is probably a gross under-exaggeration.
Chances do not look good lol.