How to Predict your own Study Score - A Guide

[paulsterio]

Alright, so many people post here asking for others to predict their study score, I thought I might as well write up a little estimate as to how to predict it yourself.

First of all, let's define some words:

- "Low" means close to the lower cutoff
- "Medium" means around the middle between the two cutoffs
- "High" means close to the upper cutoff

For A+'s, I tend to like using a "Very High" category as well which basically means 100% or very close to it, or basically near the maximum.

Ok, now that that's underway, let's create a little system. It's similar to a points system:

- Very High A+ - 10 points
- High A+ - 9 points
- Mid A+ - 8 points
- Low A+ - 7 points
- High A - 6.5 points
- Mid A - 6 points
- Low A - 5.5 points
- High B+ - 5 points
- Mid B+ - 4.75 points
- Low B+ - 4.5 points
- High B - 4.25 points
- Mid B - 4 points
- Low B - 3.8 points
- High C+ - 3.6 points
- Mid C+ - 3.5 points
- Low C+ - 3.4 points
- High C - 3.2 points
- Mid C - 3 points
- Low C - 2.75 points
- High D+ - 2.5 points
- Mid D+ - 2 points
- Low D+ - 1.5 points

Now, you might ask why does my system vary more at the extremities? This is because the GA scores are normally distributed, meaning that at the extremities, moving a little will statistically affect you more so than at the middle. For example, losing 2 marks on Methods can potentially knock you down from a 50 to a 49, but at the middle, losing 2 marks can have no affect on your study score (mid 30s for example). This is technical, it doesn't really matter, but let's get onto how to actually calculate your score.

Step 1
Head onto VCAA: http://www.vcaa.vic.edu.au/Pages/vce/statistics/2011/statssect3.aspx
Grab the file for your subject.

Step 2
Predict how well you will go for each of your Graded Assessments - you should, by now, know what GA1, GA2 and GA3 refer to. E.g. Methods - GA1 = SACs, GA2 = Exam 1, GA3 = Exam 2
Now, look at the file you downloaded in Step 1. Each GA will have a table like so:

This shows the score ranges and the letter grade you will get. For example, if I score 90 for GA1, I will get a "low A+" as it is close to the lower cutoff for A+'s.

Step 3
Repeat for all three GAs and you will end up with three letter grades.
E.g. If I were to do my Physics, I would get:
GA1 - Exam 1 - Low A+ - 7 points
GA2 - SACs - Very High A+ - 10 points
GA3 - Exam 2 - Very High A+ - 10 points

Step 4
Grab your study SUMMARY (not study design) from here: http://www.vcaa.vic.edu.au/pages/vce/studies/index.aspx
Work out how much each of your GAs are worth and calculate the weighted average of your GAs. For Physics, it is 33%, 34%, 33%.

Now, calculate your weighted average: 7 x 0.33 + 10 x 0.34 + 10 x 0.33 = 9.01

Step 5
Use this scale to figure out what study score you are likely to get, if your weighted average is:
- 10 - SS: 48+
- 9 - SS: 45+
- 8 - SS: 42+
- 7 - SS: 39+
- 6 - SS: 37+
- 5 - SS: 35+
- 4 - SS: 33+
- 3.5 - SS: 30+


Does this system work?

Well I sure hope it does, because I've spent a week researching and perfecting it based on my own scores as well as the scores of others - let me try it on my own scores and show you:
- English - H A+, VH A+, H A - Avg = 8 - SS = 42 (correctly predicted)
- Methods - VH A+, VH A+, VH A+ - Avg = 10 - SS = 49 (correctly predicted)
- Spesh - VH A+, H A+, M A+ - Avg = 8.8 - SS = 44 (correctly predicted)
- Physics - L A+, VH A+, VH A+ - Avg = 9.01 - SS = 46 (correctly predicted)
- ITSD - VH A+, VH A+, VH A+ - Avg = 10 - SS = 48 (correctly predicted)
- Chemistry - M A+, M A+, M A+ - Avg = 8 - SS = 43 (correctly predicted)

Alright, so I've managed to correctly predict 6 of my own subjects using real data I got from my statements of study score, plugging them into my system and getting somewhat similar to what I actually ended up getting - not bad hey?

Now time for you to do the same! Happy predicting, I hope this is a fun and innovative way for the members of AN to actually get out there and predict their own SSs without having to rely on other members, of course, nothing can beat experienced judgement, but nothing can beat doing it yourself either.


Lastly, I just like to clean up some myths about SSs which I've sometimes heard:

1) I got a D+ on my Unit 3 Exam, if I get a high A+ on my Unit 4 exam... - Well sorry to break the news to you, but one simply does not go from a D+ student to an A+ student without making a drastic change or unless some extremely bad circumstance happenned in order to cause your Unit 3 mark. Predict realistically, only drastic change can cause drastic mark changes.

2) I've been underperforming in SACs, if I get 100% on the exam.... - Read above

Now that I've gotten everything I want to say out of the way, good luck with your VCE and happy study score predicting, I hope that this is useful to you. Cheers for reading and using

[b^3]

While this 'issue' is up I might just point out Mao's Study Score estimator, for those who haven't found it yet.

GA SCORE ESTIMATOR / STUDY SCORE ESTIMATOR

Basically uses the standard distribution from your input marks to work out your study score (won't account for moderation through, unless you account for itm which you won't know). It was pretty accurate for me compared to my actual scores and what I felt I got. You need the grade distributions from above that Paul linked and showed.

Anyway just another method for those who didn't know, or just want a 'quick' automated calculation. (Also remember don't spend too much time on predicting it, spend the time on making it happen! )

[Lasercookie]

Step 4
Grab your study SUMMARY (not study design) from here: http://www.vcaa.vic.edu.au/pages/vce/studies/index.aspx
Work out how much each of your GAs are worth and calculate the weighted average of your GAs. For Physics, it is 33%, 34%, 33%.

I'll point out that Section 8 of the VCE Handbook has a neat table with all subjects and their GA weightings - it's a bit quicker than going to each subject page etc.

For 2012 it's page 85 http://www.vcaa.vic.edu.au/Documents/handbook/AdminHand2012-PartC.pdf
For 2013 it's page 84 http://www.vcaa.vic.edu.au/Documents/handbook/2013/AdHand2013_PartC.pdf

[Genericname2365]

This was the first time I've been able to understand how to do this, thanks. 
Unfortunately SAC "points" are pretty hard to guess for me.

[pi]

1) I got a D+ on my Unit 3 Exam, if I get a high A+ on my Unit 4 exam... - Well sorry to break the news to you, but one simply does not go from a D+ student to an A+ student without making a drastic change or unless some extremely bad circumstance happenned in order to cause your Unit 3 mark. Predict realistically, only drastic change can cause drastic mark changes.

[Dejan]

I am quite confused how to work my SS for subjects like legal :s, how do you do it?

[StumbleBum]

Oh my, I think I'm in love with you Paul. I was and am getting so sick of predicting numerous peoples study scores. I really hope people use this and appreciate the effort you put in; I know I do.

[paulsterio]

I am quite confused how to work my SS for subjects like legal :s, how do you do it?

Which step are you stuck at?

[Jenny_2108]

don't spend too much time on predicting it, spend the time on making it happen!

this

[monkeywantsabanana]

Don't your SAC marks change from the raw mark that is given to VCAA depending on how the cohort goes?

[paulsterio]

Don't your SAC marks change from the raw mark that is given to VCAA depending on how the cohort goes?

Yes, always use moderated SAC marks in your calculation, so estimate what your SAC marks will be depending on the strength of your cohort.

[shaiga95]

What percentage of students receiving A+ does this predictor assume? , if it were to be ~8% for both exams would 3 low A+ s for GA1,GA2,GA3 net you a 40+

[paulsterio]

A+ is top 10% (by definition) - NOT 8% - as you have suggested.
40+ is top 8% (by NormCDF function)

Thus, 3 low A+ would net you below a 40. You can verify that by using the invNorm function, top 10% (right tail) with Mean of 30 and SD of 7, you'll see it comes out to like 38 or 39 (something in between iirc)

[Dejan]

I am quite confused how to work my SS for subjects like legal :s, how do you do it?

Which step are you stuck at?

step 4

[Genericname2365]

Don't your SAC marks change from the raw mark that is given to VCAA depending on how the cohort goes?

Yes, always use moderated SAC marks in your calculation, so estimate what your SAC marks will be depending on the strength of your cohort.

So if you get rank 1 on sacs and the exam would you put a 10 for the sac GA?
Edit: Sorry if this has already been asked/answered in what's been said, I'm a bit confused reading back.