Let's assume you can't get over 40 in specialist - in fact, let's assume the highest you can get is a 30 (which is the average mark for any subject).
After scaling kicks in, this becomes a 43. To match this scaled score in Further, you must get 45 (as this will go down to 44, and 44 goes down to 42.

- this is where we run into our issue.
As much as I always say, "ignore scaling", you need to think about this - it's the scaled scores that make up your ATAR, not the raw scores. This is a super tremendous difference, and getting a 45 in Further means you must be better than 98% of the cohort. Are you more confident that you can be better than 98% of Further students, or that you could do better than 50% of specialist students? (if you answer the former, rethink your answer

)