Official AN Ebola Thread-statistics, epidemiology, critical thinking & solutions

[TheAspiringDoc]

Dear AN users, as most of you have probably noticed ebola in the news/media lately, i have created this thread so that we can discuss the virus and our opinions as to what should be done. The reason AN would make such a good site for this is that we have the full range: doctors of medicine, science students, open-minded youngsters, sociologists, mathematicians, lawyers, artists and just smart people i general.
I ask that every one of you who reads this forum makes a contribution - this epidemic is far from over.
For the past four or so months ebola has been growing exponentially. over 12,000 have been reported have been infected and this figure is estimated to account for only one-third the real number of cases. The case fatality rate (CFR) is 71% and no cure is known as of yet.
The main drug producing companies (who's product isn't even proven to be effective) say that by the end of 2015 there will be enough medicine to go round - only problem is, if ebola continues at its current rate, over three-quarters of the world will dead by then.
even in first world countries such as the US contamination is not preventable - Thomas Eric Duncan (the guy who originally took ebola to the US) was taken into an isolation unit and was treated, in the end though, he ended up dying. several of his nurses ended up infected.
There is a current attitude that ebola is only spreading because it's in a 3rd world country. NOT AT ALL TRUE. this has been proven by the fact that one individual in a first world country has died after treatment and has infected others, who may well in turn infect others, leading to only more exponential growth.
Something has to be done, and i put it to YOU the next generation of Australians

Thanks, TheAspiringDoc

P.s. if you want to find out more than just whats coming from the top of a 14 year olds ranting head check out the wiki page: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ebola_virus_epidemic_in_West_Africa

[Truck]

3/4 of the world isn't going to die from ebola.................

it's not an airborne disease so even semi-developed countries can easily contain it. Case example is how Nigeria managed to stop the spread after 8 cases earlier this year.

In its current form the disease poses a minimal threat to the western/developed world, it's western africa that is obviously bearing the brunt of it and that is a result of numerous factors, i.e. poor medical facilities and tribal customs. You're going to have to find your end of the world scenario somewhere else.

[TheAspiringDoc]

3/4 of the world isn't going to die from ebola.................

it's not an airborne disease so even semi-developed countries can easily contain it. Case example is how Nigeria managed to stop the spread after 8 cases earlier this year.

In its current form the disease poses a minimal threat to the western/developed world, it's western africa that is obviously bearing the brunt of it and that is a result of numerous factors, i.e. poor medical facilities and tribal customs. You're going to have to find your end of the world scenario somewhere else.

Hi truck, you raise a good point that ebola isn't airborne (theoretically). but the methods of transmission aren't fully understood, if ebola transmission was understood how could those american nurses treating Thomas Eric Duncan have allowed themselves to contract ebola?

[nondiscrypt]

removing their protective clothing incorrectly and inadvertently contaminating themselves then

[TheAspiringDoc]

removing their protective clothing incorrectly and inadvertently contaminating themselves then

just seems a bit ridiculous. surely they could take off their hazmat suits safely?

[dc302]

The transmission is pretty well understood. Fecal matter/body fluids etc is spread over the patient, which is touched by treating team. It's easy to mess up de-gowning and accidentally touching a part of the gown that had been in contact with the patient. The person then just needs to touch his face and the virus has a chance of being ingested, which would spread the disease. The disease has a high mortality rate due to the poor infrastructure and medical facilities in those affected countries, and is unlikely to have such a high rate if it spreads to a developed country (and thus 3/4 of the world won't die as mentioned).

[achre]

Ebola itself isn't anything to worry about. The next newsworthy disease epidemic (in the same vein of SARS or avian flu or swine flu) also probably won't be anything worth panicking over, or the one after that. What worries me is that we're going to get so complacent as a society that when something rocks up that presents a serious health risk to, say, 3/4s of the world's population, we won't take it seriously. That's how they getcha.

[nondiscrypt]

Because Ebola is not easily transmitted we do not have to worry TheAspiringDoc - here's one to sink your teeth into if you want to make a difference:

MALARIA - The largest killer of children
Malaria kills one child every 30 seconds, about 3000 children every day.
Over one million people die from malaria each year, mostly children under five years of age, with 90 per cent of malaria cases occurring in Sub-Saharan Africa.

[chasej]

Car crashes are more of a threat than Ebola in Australia.