Seasonal Variation

[crayolé]

Hmm, just sorting out a bit of confusion. Monthly/weekly patterns can also be counted as seasonal variation?

I didn't know this until I completed an Insight paper

[Studyinghard]

basically anything that looks like its going up and then coming back again after the same time gap is seasonal variation

[vexx]

note that it is random variation if it does not do the same pattern evenly by that, it is random if it peaks 5,9,14 periods, even if that could be seasonal, it is random since it would need to be 5,10,15.

also, if the variations are greater than one year, then it is cyclic

[Studyinghard]

note that it is random variation if it does not do the same pattern evenly by that, it is random if it peaks 5,9,14 periods, even if that could be seasonal, it is random since it would need to be 5,10,15.

also, if the variations are greater than one year, then it is cyclic

but you cant call it seasonal if they dont have a patter =/
also cyclic variation is most of the time a bell curve or approximate to that

[_avO]

Aren't cyclic variations those that have trends but at irregular time intervals,

Seasonal being trends in exact time intervals and

Random having no patterns, and fluctuations and basically anything all round and can't be predicted?

[vexx]

note that it is random variation if it does not do the same pattern evenly by that, it is random if it peaks 5,9,14 periods, even if that could be seasonal, it is random since it would need to be 5,10,15.

also, if the variations are greater than one year, then it is cyclic

but you cant call it seasonal if they dont have a patter =/
also cyclic variation is most of the time a bell curve or approximate to that

haha my post was so confusing
seasonal- if it is an even pattern such as peaking at 5,10,15 periods
random- if it is a random pattern, even if it appears seasonal from a pattern like peaks at 5,9,14 periods. it is still random

[Studyinghard]

Cyclic i always have seen to be in a symmetrical shape.
Seasonal is always like goes up then plummets down then goes up again after the same time interval

They both can have a trend, this you just have to go by eye and see if its increasing or decreasing.

Random and fluctuations are self explanatory I guess

[Studyinghard]

note that it is random variation if it does not do the same pattern evenly by that, it is random if it peaks 5,9,14 periods, even if that could be seasonal, it is random since it would need to be 5,10,15.

also, if the variations are greater than one year, then it is cyclic

but you cant call it seasonal if they dont have a patter =/
also cyclic variation is most of the time a bell curve or approximate to that

haha my post was so confusing
seasonal- if it is an even pattern such as peaking at 5,10,15 periods
random- if it is a random pattern, even if it appears seasonal from a pattern like peaks at 5,9,14 periods. it is still random

i dont think it necessarily has to be even, for example you can have seasonal variation if they peak at 7,14,21 and you are talking about 7 days in a week and 4 weeks in a month

[vexx]

note that it is random variation if it does not do the same pattern evenly by that, it is random if it peaks 5,9,14 periods, even if that could be seasonal, it is random since it would need to be 5,10,15.

also, if the variations are greater than one year, then it is cyclic

but you cant call it seasonal if they dont have a patter =/
also cyclic variation is most of the time a bell curve or approximate to that

haha my post was so confusing
seasonal- if it is an even pattern such as peaking at 5,10,15 periods
random- if it is a random pattern, even if it appears seasonal from a pattern like peaks at 5,9,14 periods. it is still random

i dont think it necessarily has to be even, for example you can have seasonal variation if they peak at 7,14,21 and you are talking about 7 days in a week and 4 weeks in a month

that is even if it peaks every 7 points.
but it needs to follow a pattern (thats what i meant by be even)
there was a question that i almost fell for in (i think) 2008 that you had to know if its not a specific pattern its random.

[crayolé]

Thanks guys :smitten:

So is cyclic variation
-Bell curve or
-Variations greater than a year

I don't understand how a bell curve can represent a 'cycle'? Unless they're bellcurves in succession?

[_avO]

Eh.. my book says that seasonal are common/repetitive fluctuating movements less than 1 year and cyclic is the same but more than 1 year? Which one is right I'm starting to get confused.

[Studyinghard]

Thanks guys :smitten:

So is cyclic variation
-Bell curve or
-Variations greater than a year

I don't understand how a bell curve can represent a 'cycle'? Unless they're bellcurves in succession?

It just looks like a repetitive process but so does seasonal right? The difference from seasonal and cycle is that seasonal reaches a maximum then plummets however a cycle just "eases" into its movements. Most of the time they show like you said a succession of cyclic movements/ succession of bell curves.

[_avO]

Essentials describes seasonal as up and down fluctuations, with patterns occuring less than 1 year, and cyclic is the same but more than 1 year. What am I to believe?   

[jasoN-]

Seasonal: Varying from season to season, ie. every year there will be a repeated (or similar) trend.
Cyclical: Similar to seasonal but not tied to a calendar cycle, ie. it can be a similar trend every 5 years, 4 years etc.

[TrueTears]

Hmm, just sorting out a bit of confusion. Monthly/weekly patterns can also be counted as seasonal variation?

I didn't know this until I completed an Insight paper

In mathematical statistics, we define seasonal variation as variation LESS than 1 year. I haven't done further so I am not sure if that's the definition you guys use in VCE.

Cyclical however is usually more than 1 year.

These definitions seem to align with those provided by _avO, so I think they should be correct.