Login

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

May 25, 2024, 12:16:29 pm

Author Topic: Study Score Prediction Question Thread  (Read 995972 times)  Share 

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Ducc

  • Adventurer
  • *
  • Posts: 9
  • Forum Stalker
  • Respect: +1
Re: Study Score Prediction Question Thread
« Reply #2640 on: November 04, 2019, 02:12:53 pm »
0
What STUDY SCORE am i looking at for Further?
SACS: 92 (Upper end of a strong cohort)
EXAM 1: 39/40
EXAM 2: 56-57/60 :(

2017: CISCO 3/4
(Extension Increment)

2018: Religion and Society: [33]

2019: English, Further, Methods, Psychology, Software Development

AIM: 80 ATAR

geek123456

  • Guest
Re: Study Score Prediction Question Thread
« Reply #2641 on: November 04, 2019, 02:49:14 pm »
0
This might be a silly question but how do we estimate our study scores using last years grade distributions?
I can only figure out my grades not a numerical number?

PhoenixxFire

  • VIC MVP - 2018
  • Honorary Moderator
  • ATAR Notes Legend
  • *******
  • Posts: 3695
  • They/them/theirs
  • Respect: +3102
Re: Study Score Prediction Question Thread
« Reply #2642 on: November 04, 2019, 03:22:14 pm »
+1
sorry, after the further exam the mark has changed so i was hoping if someone would be able to check this for me:

GA 1: 91/100
GA 2: 76/80
GA 3: 116/120
rank 1

am i looking at a 45? (also will i pull my school's scores down because i'm worried i will)
Yeah probably about a 45, maybe 44 depending on how your sacs scale.
The whole pulling down your cohorts score thing isn't as big of a deal as its made out to be. It mostly occurs when you have a small cohort or one that is scoring very unevenly. One person can't really do much damage. Sacs are scaled according to how your cohort goes on exams, so if a lot of people at the top of your cohort bomb the exam, sacs won't scale how they otherwise would. Don't worry about it though.

What STUDY SCORE am i looking at for Further?
SACS: 92 (Upper end of a strong cohort)
EXAM 1: 39/40
EXAM 2: 56-57/60 :(
probably a 45/46 or thereabouts depending on how your sacs scale.

This might be a silly question but how do we estimate our study scores using last years grade distributions?
I can only figure out my grades not a numerical number?
The average study score is 30 with a standard deviation of 7. On the grade distribution it will have the mean and standard deviation for each GA. You can use this to approximately work it out (it's more precise for some scores than other). Say for example you have a GA where the mean is 36 and the standard deviation is 9. You got a score of 43 so you know that you're almost one standard deviation above average, ie. just below a 37 study score.
You do this for each GA, and then use the weighting of each GA to work out approximately what the average of them all is, and that gives you a rough idea of what to expect. This is more precise for some people than for others - eg. if you're right on a standard deviation then it's more accurate (for that year at least) than approximating if your score is a bit above or below one.

This doesn't work for all subjects, it mostly works up to about 44, anything above that requires using grade cuttoffs, and it also only works up to 37 for further because of the way the mark distribution goes in that subject.

For further the other way you can work it out is that you need around a low A+ average to get a 40. Therefore scores that approximately put you on the A/A+ border are likely to be around a 40, scores slightly higher than that are low 40's, and scores in the upper A+ area are high 40s.

Edit: I'd forgotten, there's another way to work it out too.
% of students to each study score
2% of students will get a score on or above 45
9% of students will get a score on or above 40
26% of students will get a score on or above 35
53% of students will get a score on or above 30
78% of students will get a score on or above 25
93% of students will get a score on or above 20.
You can use this in combination with the % of students who get each grade to work out approximately which bracket you'll be in. It's not very precise either though.
You could try using multiple methods if you want, you'll probably get slightly different results.
« Last Edit: November 04, 2019, 03:36:12 pm by PhoenixxFire »
2019: B. Environment and Sustainability/B. Science @ ANU
2020: Just Vibing
2021: B. Paramedicine/B. Nursing @ ACU Canberra

colline

  • MOTM: NOV 19
  • Forum Obsessive
  • ***
  • Posts: 341
  • ♡ 2 Timothy 1:7 ♡
  • Respect: +512
Re: Study Score Prediction Question Thread
« Reply #2643 on: November 04, 2019, 03:33:03 pm »
0
Do I have any chance of getting 49 in further? :-[

Exam 1: 39/40
Exam 2: 59/60

Rank 2 in an above-average cohort (97/100 for SACs)

Thanks!!

VCE: Literature [50] Methods [50] Further [48] Chemistry [40] Biology [33]
2022: Bachelor of Science (Mathematical Economics) @ ANU

Sine

  • Werewolf
  • National Moderator
  • Great Wonder of ATAR Notes
  • *****
  • Posts: 5135
  • Respect: +2103
Re: Study Score Prediction Question Thread
« Reply #2644 on: November 04, 2019, 03:34:19 pm »
0
Do I have any chance of getting 49 in further? :-[

Exam 1: 39/40
Exam 2: 59/60

Rank 2 in an above-average cohort (97/100 for SACs)

Thanks!!
possibly - it has happened before I know someone who got a 49 by dropping 2 marks (2014)

TheEagle

  • Forum Obsessive
  • ***
  • Posts: 361
  • Respect: +12
Re: Study Score Prediction Question Thread
« Reply #2645 on: November 04, 2019, 03:46:58 pm »
0
rank 5 in an average cohort where the people on top of me have performed similar to me
dropped 1 in exam 1 and 5 in exam 2
is this a 44?

ashmi

  • MOTM: June 20
  • Victorian Moderator
  • Forum Obsessive
  • *****
  • Posts: 429
  • Living an illusion
  • Respect: +660
Re: Study Score Prediction Question Thread
« Reply #2646 on: November 04, 2019, 04:21:31 pm »
+1
So now that the Further Exam is over (that literally obliterated me), my predicted scores for Exam 2 have changed. I was wondering if someone would be able to give me an indication of a potential SS?
 
SAC average: 99% Unit 3 and 100% Unit 4
Rank: 1/131 (Very Strong)
Exam 1: 40/40
Exam 2: 56-59/60 (Most likely 58ish)

Thank you!

JeromeTT

  • Trailblazer
  • *
  • Posts: 49
  • Respect: +2
Re: Study Score Prediction Question Thread
« Reply #2647 on: November 04, 2019, 04:56:50 pm »
+1
So now that the Further Exam is over (that literally obliterated me), my predicted scores for Exam 2 have changed. I was wondering if someone would be able to give me an indication of a potential SS?
 
SAC average: 99% Unit 3 and 100% Unit 4
Rank: 1/131 (Very Strong)
Exam 1: 40/40
Exam 2: 56-59/60 (Most likely 58ish)

Thank you!
47-49, possible 50 with 59/60 due to the very strong cohort
« Last Edit: November 04, 2019, 05:03:02 pm by JeromeTT »
2018 - Software Development [49], Further Maths [50]

2019 - English [32], Maths Methods [38], Specialist Maths [31], Physics [37]
ATAR: 97.35

2020-2023
Bachelor of Computer Science Advanced (Hons) @ Monash

JeromeTT

  • Trailblazer
  • *
  • Posts: 49
  • Respect: +2
Re: Study Score Prediction Question Thread
« Reply #2648 on: November 04, 2019, 05:00:08 pm »
+1
rank 5 in an average cohort where the people on top of me have performed similar to me
dropped 1 in exam 1 and 5 in exam 2
is this a 44?
Assuming you are talking about further, 42-44.
2018 - Software Development [49], Further Maths [50]

2019 - English [32], Maths Methods [38], Specialist Maths [31], Physics [37]
ATAR: 97.35

2020-2023
Bachelor of Computer Science Advanced (Hons) @ Monash

TheShrewsef

  • Fresh Poster
  • *
  • Posts: 1
  • Respect: 0
Re: Study Score Prediction Question Thread
« Reply #2649 on: November 04, 2019, 05:19:25 pm »
0
Hey guys, I’m kinda new here but I was wondering where I find the specific standard deviations for every subject in order to estimate a study score? Thanks!

ashmi

  • MOTM: June 20
  • Victorian Moderator
  • Forum Obsessive
  • *****
  • Posts: 429
  • Living an illusion
  • Respect: +660
Re: Study Score Prediction Question Thread
« Reply #2650 on: November 04, 2019, 05:28:06 pm »
+3
Hey guys, I’m kinda new here but I was wondering where I find the specific standard deviations for every subject in order to estimate a study score? Thanks!

Hi welcome! You can find them on the VCAA website, specifically the grade distribution! Just find the page and search up the subject you want and it will come with all the fancy details (mean, median, graphs, standard dev etc).  ;D

JeromeTT

  • Trailblazer
  • *
  • Posts: 49
  • Respect: +2
Re: Study Score Prediction Question Thread
« Reply #2651 on: November 04, 2019, 05:49:10 pm »
+1
Hey guys, I’m kinda new here but I was wondering where I find the specific standard deviations for every subject in order to estimate a study score? Thanks!
https://www.vcaa.vic.edu.au/administration/research-and-statistics/performance-senior-secondary/Pages/2018-grade-dist.aspx

Its easier to look at the percentages rather than the standard deviation of each subject
Study scores generally have a mean of 30 and a standard deviation of 7.
2018 - Software Development [49], Further Maths [50]

2019 - English [32], Maths Methods [38], Specialist Maths [31], Physics [37]
ATAR: 97.35

2020-2023
Bachelor of Computer Science Advanced (Hons) @ Monash

Kokurie

  • Fresh Poster
  • *
  • Posts: 2
  • Respect: 0
Re: Study Score Prediction Question Thread
« Reply #2652 on: November 04, 2019, 07:12:37 pm »
0
Hey I’m also going down this rabbit hole :) Can some one predict my further maths study score?
Sac average ~95% , I think I’m ranked near the top in a relatively strong cohort (our school doesn’t really let light onto rankings but my teacher seems to have high hopes in me, :0)
Exam 1 : 39/40
Exam 2: 59/60

Thanks a bunch

mathgod

  • Fresh Poster
  • *
  • Posts: 1
  • Respect: 0
Re: Study Score Prediction Question Thread
« Reply #2653 on: November 04, 2019, 07:35:58 pm »
0
Hello, could someone help me out by predicting my further maths score:

93% SAC average in a pretty strong cohort; ranked 5 or 6.

Exam 1 Score: 39/40
Exam 2 Score: 60/60

PhoenixxFire

  • VIC MVP - 2018
  • Honorary Moderator
  • ATAR Notes Legend
  • *******
  • Posts: 3695
  • They/them/theirs
  • Respect: +3102
Re: Study Score Prediction Question Thread
« Reply #2654 on: November 04, 2019, 08:29:15 pm »
+2
We've gone a couple of pages now so just another reminder that these are just estimations, I'm quite confident that they won't be 10 points off (unless the marks you've written are wrong), but I am far less confident that they won't be a couple of points off. Also please remember that your own estimation of your exam marks could be wrong, and that predicting how sacs will scale and changes to the grade distribution is difficult - don't put too much faith in this.

Hey I’m also going down this rabbit hole :) Can some one predict my further maths study score?
Sac average ~95% , I think I’m ranked near the top in a relatively strong cohort (our school doesn’t really let light onto rankings but my teacher seems to have high hopes in me, :0)
Exam 1 : 39/40
Exam 2: 59/60

Thanks a bunch
Likely 47/48 dependent on how your sacs scale

Hello, could someone help me out by predicting my further maths score:

93% SAC average in a pretty strong cohort; ranked 5 or 6.

Exam 1 Score: 39/40
Exam 2 Score: 60/60
Likely 48, potentially 47 if your sacs drag you down, maybe 49 if your sacs scale to 100 and the grade distribution allows it.
2019: B. Environment and Sustainability/B. Science @ ANU
2020: Just Vibing
2021: B. Paramedicine/B. Nursing @ ACU Canberra