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April 27, 2024, 06:59:54 pm

Author Topic: A fun probability question to try. =]  (Read 2803 times)  Share 

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brightsky

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Re: A fun probability question to try. =]
« Reply #15 on: January 04, 2011, 06:18:03 pm »
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2) 48/52*3/51*4/50*3/49*4/48*3/47*40/46*37/45*34/44*31/43*28/42*25/41*22/40 = something pretty small.

Again, I'm doubting my far-fetched logic. :/
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Re: A fun probability question to try. =]
« Reply #16 on: January 04, 2011, 06:20:51 pm »
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I'm glad there's not so much combinatorics in year 12 probability!

Me too, my worst area of maths


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kamil9876

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Re: A fun probability question to try. =]
« Reply #17 on: January 04, 2011, 06:34:29 pm »
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Brightsky, can you please explain how you got the expression for Pr(X=1).
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kevvy

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Re: A fun probability question to try. =]
« Reply #18 on: January 04, 2011, 07:30:10 pm »
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this question is impossible as probability is NOT fun. :(

nacho

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Re: A fun probability question to try. =]
« Reply #19 on: January 04, 2011, 07:49:11 pm »
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2) 48/52*3/51*4/50*3/49*4/48*3/47*40/46*37/45*34/44*31/43*28/42*25/41*22/40 = something pretty small.

Again, I'm doubting my far-fetched logic. :/
Lol why do you know year 12 probability when you're doing methods next year?
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brightsky

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Re: A fun probability question to try. =]
« Reply #20 on: January 04, 2011, 08:01:56 pm »
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Brightsky, can you please explain how you got the expression for Pr(X=1).

Desired outcome/Total number of outcomes

So desired outcome = getting one 4 of a kind and the rest not containing any 4 of a kinds
                           = 11 (since there are 11 possible four of a kinds)*4C4 (one four of a kind) * 48C9 (after getting the four of a kind you only have 48 left out of 52, and from that you choose 9 to make up your 13) --> This is where I am skeptical about the accuracy of my logic, since the subsequent 9 you pick from the remaining 48 can potentially have one or more 4 of a kinds...

*Perhaps* a better shot using the logic I used for question 2 (though doubt it is any more logical than the previous attempt):

44/52*3/51*2/50*1/49*48/48*47/47*46/46*44/45*43/44*42/43*40/42*39/41*38/40 = something ridiculously smaller :/
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kamil9876

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Re: A fun probability question to try. =]
« Reply #21 on: January 04, 2011, 10:03:50 pm »
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Quote
This is where I am skeptical about the accuracy of my logic, since the subsequent 9 you pick from the remaining 48 can potentially have one or more 4 of a kinds...

Yes I was thinking you might've made that mistake. That is why I think that there probably isn't such a simple solution(a product), the simplest would probably be given by the principle of inclusion-exclusion (which is a sum).
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