Re: causes, I almost feel like that would be too predictable and they'd want to shake things up a little. At least by throwing an 'evaluate the causes' in there or something like that, compare and contrast the causes idk. But also I think they're trying to use key terms/the preambles a lot more - so last year they had that 'international cooperation' one, maybe they'll do something about justice and/or ethics and how it impacts the resolution of conflicts/how it acts as a cause?
Best to be prepared for the worst, so I'd make some essay plans for tougher prompts like that. Same with the questions for AOS 1, they could ask about how people power impacts on the global political arena, or how globalisation affects the work of non-state actors. Glopol at the moment is like a box of cheap aldi chocolates - you never know what weird bullshit you're going to get, because they're running out of ideas.