does anyone know how to do this?
http://i.imgur.com/ADjS053.jpg
I would say the answer is D: 11 206.
The question asks for the
predicted minimum number of penguins over the quarters 16, 17, 18, 19 and 20 (since this is the next 5 quarters).
We first must work out the deseasonalised figures for these quarters using the trend line.
Quarter 16: [4.5 + 0.73 (16)] x 1000 = 16 180
Quarter 17: [4.5 + 0.73 (17)] x 1000 = 16 910
Quarter 18: [4.5 + 0.73 (18)] x 1000 = 17 640
Quarter 19: [4.5 + 0.73 (19)] x 1000 = 18 370
Quarter 20: [4.5 + 0.73 (19)] x 1000 = 19 100
Now, using the formula, Actual Figure = Deseasonalised Figure x Seasonal Index, we can compute the actual predicted values for these quarters.
Quarter 16: 16 180 x 1.30 = 21 034
Quarter 17: 16 910 x 1.20 = 20 292
Quarter 18: 17 640 x 0.89 = 15 699.6
Quarter 19: 18 370 x 0.61 = 11 205.7
Quarter 20: 19 100 x 1.30 = 24 830
We recognise that quarter 19 has the minimum predicted value, and if we round up we find that the predicted value is 11 206. Hence, the answer is D!