ATAR Notes: Forum
VCE Stuff => Victorian Technical Score Discussion => Topic started by: paulsterio on October 19, 2012, 09:06:40 pm
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Alright, so many people post here asking for others to predict their study score, I thought I might as well write up a little estimate as to how to predict it yourself.
First of all, let's define some words:
- "Low" means close to the lower cutoff
- "Medium" means around the middle between the two cutoffs
- "High" means close to the upper cutoff
For A+'s, I tend to like using a "Very High" category as well which basically means 100% or very close to it, or basically near the maximum.
Ok, now that that's underway, let's create a little system. It's similar to a points system:
- Very High A+ - 10 points
- High A+ - 9 points
- Mid A+ - 8 points
- Low A+ - 7 points
- High A - 6.5 points
- Mid A - 6 points
- Low A - 5.5 points
- High B+ - 5 points
- Mid B+ - 4.75 points
- Low B+ - 4.5 points
- High B - 4.25 points
- Mid B - 4 points
- Low B - 3.8 points
- High C+ - 3.6 points
- Mid C+ - 3.5 points
- Low C+ - 3.4 points
- High C - 3.2 points
- Mid C - 3 points
- Low C - 2.75 points
- High D+ - 2.5 points
- Mid D+ - 2 points
- Low D+ - 1.5 points
Now, you might ask why does my system vary more at the extremities? This is because the GA scores are normally distributed, meaning that at the extremities, moving a little will statistically affect you more so than at the middle. For example, losing 2 marks on Methods can potentially knock you down from a 50 to a 49, but at the middle, losing 2 marks can have no affect on your study score (mid 30s for example). This is technical, it doesn't really matter, but let's get onto how to actually calculate your score.
Step 1
Head onto VCAA: http://www.vcaa.vic.edu.au/Pages/vce/statistics/2011/statssect3.aspx
Grab the file for your subject.
Step 2
Predict how well you will go for each of your Graded Assessments - you should, by now, know what GA1, GA2 and GA3 refer to. E.g. Methods - GA1 = SACs, GA2 = Exam 1, GA3 = Exam 2
Now, look at the file you downloaded in Step 1. Each GA will have a table like so:
(http://i49.tinypic.com/ekqdn5.jpg)
This shows the score ranges and the letter grade you will get. For example, if I score 90 for GA1, I will get a "low A+" as it is close to the lower cutoff for A+'s.
Step 3
Repeat for all three GAs and you will end up with three letter grades.
E.g. If I were to do my Physics, I would get:
GA1 - Exam 1 - Low A+ - 7 points
GA2 - SACs - Very High A+ - 10 points
GA3 - Exam 2 - Very High A+ - 10 points
Step 4
Grab your study SUMMARY (not study design) from here: http://www.vcaa.vic.edu.au/pages/vce/studies/index.aspx
Work out how much each of your GAs are worth and calculate the weighted average of your GAs. For Physics, it is 33%, 34%, 33%.
Now, calculate your weighted average: 7 x 0.33 + 10 x 0.34 + 10 x 0.33 = 9.01
Step 5
Use this scale to figure out what study score you are likely to get, if your weighted average is:
- 10 - SS: 48+
- 9 - SS: 45+
- 8 - SS: 42+
- 7 - SS: 39+
- 6 - SS: 37+
- 5 - SS: 35+
- 4 - SS: 33+
- 3.5 - SS: 30+
Does this system work?
Well I sure hope it does, because I've spent a week researching and perfecting it based on my own scores as well as the scores of others - let me try it on my own scores and show you:
- English - H A+, VH A+, H A - Avg = 8 - SS = 42 (correctly predicted)
- Methods - VH A+, VH A+, VH A+ - Avg = 10 - SS = 49 (correctly predicted)
- Spesh - VH A+, H A+, M A+ - Avg = 8.8 - SS = 44 (correctly predicted)
- Physics - L A+, VH A+, VH A+ - Avg = 9.01 - SS = 46 (correctly predicted)
- ITSD - VH A+, VH A+, VH A+ - Avg = 10 - SS = 48 (correctly predicted)
- Chemistry - M A+, M A+, M A+ - Avg = 8 - SS = 43 (correctly predicted)
Alright, so I've managed to correctly predict 6 of my own subjects using real data I got from my statements of study score, plugging them into my system and getting somewhat similar to what I actually ended up getting - not bad hey?
Now time for you to do the same! Happy predicting, I hope this is a fun and innovative way for the members of AN to actually get out there and predict their own SSs without having to rely on other members, of course, nothing can beat experienced judgement, but nothing can beat doing it yourself either.
Lastly, I just like to clean up some myths about SSs which I've sometimes heard:
1) I got a D+ on my Unit 3 Exam, if I get a high A+ on my Unit 4 exam... - Well sorry to break the news to you, but one simply does not go from a D+ student to an A+ student without making a drastic change or unless some extremely bad circumstance happenned in order to cause your Unit 3 mark. Predict realistically, only drastic change can cause drastic mark changes.
2) I've been underperforming in SACs, if I get 100% on the exam.... - Read above
Now that I've gotten everything I want to say out of the way, good luck with your VCE and happy study score predicting, I hope that this is useful to you. Cheers for reading and using :)
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While this 'issue' is up I might just point out Mao's Study Score estimator, for those who haven't found it yet.
GA SCORE ESTIMATOR / STUDY SCORE ESTIMATOR
Basically uses the standard distribution from your input marks to work out your study score (won't account for moderation through, unless you account for itm which you won't know). It was pretty accurate for me compared to my actual scores and what I felt I got. You need the grade distributions from above that Paul linked and showed.
Anyway just another method for those who didn't know, or just want a 'quick' automated calculation. (Also remember don't spend too much time on predicting it, spend the time on making it happen! :) )
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Step 4
Grab your study SUMMARY (not study design) from here: http://www.vcaa.vic.edu.au/pages/vce/studies/index.aspx
Work out how much each of your GAs are worth and calculate the weighted average of your GAs. For Physics, it is 33%, 34%, 33%.
I'll point out that Section 8 of the VCE Handbook has a neat table with all subjects and their GA weightings - it's a bit quicker than going to each subject page etc.
For 2012 it's page 85 http://www.vcaa.vic.edu.au/Documents/handbook/AdminHand2012-PartC.pdf
For 2013 it's page 84 http://www.vcaa.vic.edu.au/Documents/handbook/2013/AdHand2013_PartC.pdf
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This was the first time I've been able to understand how to do this, thanks. :P
Unfortunately SAC "points" are pretty hard to guess for me.
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1) I got a D+ on my Unit 3 Exam, if I get a high A+ on my Unit 4 exam... - Well sorry to break the news to you, but one simply does not go from a D+ student to an A+ student without making a drastic change or unless some extremely bad circumstance happenned in order to cause your Unit 3 mark. Predict realistically, only drastic change can cause drastic mark changes.
(https://twimg0-a.akamaihd.net/profile_images/2230187991/siM.png)
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I am quite confused how to work my SS for subjects like legal :s, how do you do it?
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Oh my, I think I'm in love with you Paul. I was and am getting so sick of predicting numerous peoples study scores. I really hope people use this and appreciate the effort you put in; I know I do.
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I am quite confused how to work my SS for subjects like legal :s, how do you do it?
Which step are you stuck at?
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don't spend too much time on predicting it, spend the time on making it happen!
this
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Don't your SAC marks change from the raw mark that is given to VCAA depending on how the cohort goes?
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Don't your SAC marks change from the raw mark that is given to VCAA depending on how the cohort goes?
Yes, always use moderated SAC marks in your calculation, so estimate what your SAC marks will be depending on the strength of your cohort.
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What percentage of students receiving A+ does this predictor assume? , if it were to be ~8% for both exams would 3 low A+ s for GA1,GA2,GA3 net you a 40+
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A+ is top 10% (by definition) - NOT 8% - as you have suggested.
40+ is top 8% (by NormCDF function)
Thus, 3 low A+ would net you below a 40. You can verify that by using the invNorm function, top 10% (right tail) with Mean of 30 and SD of 7, you'll see it comes out to like 38 or 39 (something in between iirc)
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I am quite confused how to work my SS for subjects like legal :s, how do you do it?
Which step are you stuck at?
step 4
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Don't your SAC marks change from the raw mark that is given to VCAA depending on how the cohort goes?
Yes, always use moderated SAC marks in your calculation, so estimate what your SAC marks will be depending on the strength of your cohort.
So if you get rank 1 on sacs and the exam would you put a 10 for the sac GA?
Edit: Sorry if this has already been asked/answered in what's been said, I'm a bit confused reading back.
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I am quite confused how to work my SS for subjects like legal :s, how do you do it?
Which step are you stuck at?
step 4
The weighting for Legal is 50% SACs and 50% Exam.
So say you got a low A for SACs --> 7
and say you want a mid A for Exam --> 8
Then it would be (0.5 x 7) + (0.5 x 8 ) = 7.5 --> ~40 SS
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So if you get rank 1 on sacs and the exam would you put a 10 for the sac GA?
Edit: Sorry if this has already been asked/answered in what's been said, I'm a bit confused reading back.
Well no, you would put what you think the highest exam mark in your cohort would be.
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So if you get rank 1 on sacs and the exam would you put a 10 for the sac GA?
Edit: Sorry if this has already been asked/answered in what's been said, I'm a bit confused reading back.
Well no, you would put what you think the highest exam mark in your cohort would be.
I mean the sac GA - for example GA1, if I know I have the highest rank for that unit in terms of SACs. Unless that's what you meant?
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So if you get rank 1 on sacs and the exam would you put a 10 for the sac GA?
Edit: Sorry if this has already been asked/answered in what's been said, I'm a bit confused reading back.
Well no, you would put what you think the highest exam mark in your cohort would be.
I mean the sac GA - for example GA1, if I know I have the highest rank for that unit in terms of SACs. Unless that's what you meant?
Basically he's stating that the fact that you got rank 1 doesn't mean you automatically get a 10 for SACs. You get a 10 for SACs if you are rank 1 for your cohort and expecting to get rank 1 and nearly 100% on the exam, as that will become your GA1 result.
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So if you get rank 1 on sacs and the exam would you put a 10 for the sac GA?
Edit: Sorry if this has already been asked/answered in what's been said, I'm a bit confused reading back.
Well no, you would put what you think the highest exam mark in your cohort would be.
I mean the sac GA - for example GA1, if I know I have the highest rank for that unit in terms of SACs. Unless that's what you meant?
Basically he's stating that the fact that you got rank 1 doesn't mean you automatically get a 10 for SACs. You get a 10 for SACs if you are rank 1 for your cohort and expecting to get rank 1 and nearly 100% on the exam, as that will become your GA1 result.
Ok I get it. Thanks.
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I am quite confused how to work my SS for subjects like legal :s, how do you do it?
Which step are you stuck at?
step 4
The weighting for Legal is 50% SACs and 50% Exam.
So say you got a low A for SACs --> 7
and say you want a mid A for Exam --> 8
Then it would be (0.5 x 7) + (0.5 x 8 ) = 7.5 --> ~40 SS
Oh okay awesome, thanks!
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Remember to scale SAC scores to reflect your cohort
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Remember to scale SAC scores to reflect your cohort
I don't know how to scale. Can you help?
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Remember to scale SAC scores to reflect your cohort
I don't know how to scale. Can you help?
Let's say for example you are rank 2 in your Further class with a low A for SACs.
Then for the exam you've studied really hard and you now expect to get two High A+'s, while you also expect the person that is rank 1 to get high A+'s.
So now your SACs will become the second highest exam mark, as you were rank 2, giving you a high A+ for SACs and Exams when you calculate your estimated study score.
Also if you were say rank 30 and were expecting to get high A+'s on the exam, you SAC mark would be what you think the 30th exam makr will be, which might be a B+.
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This is really useful just discovered it! i tried my biology grades and study score that i did last year, and plugged it in to the equation, very very close to the 35 i achieved. it has given me peace of mind that if everything goes to plan, i will get the atar needed for my dream course! thankyou :)
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That's good Katykins, I'm sure you will get into the course you are looking at :)
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Nice tool you've made - however you only mentioned scores from 30 and above. I'm aiming for 25 in methods and I achieved a score of 3.292 using your tool - any indicators if this is likely to achieve 25? Thanks again!
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Nice tool you've made - however you only mentioned scores from 30 and above. I'm aiming for 25 in methods and I achieved a score of 3.292 using your tool - any indicators if this is likely to achieve 25? Thanks again!
I don't have enough experience with <30 because I just don't have enough data to work with, what I've done is actually look at it from a statistical point of view rather than a mathematical point of view, so what that involves is me collecting a massive load of data from past students - exam scores, SAC scores and study scores and fiddling around with that to get a working model, it's in contrast to Mao's SS Estimator which looks at it from a Mathematical point of view.
But, honestly, yes you should get 25+, if you aim to get C, C, C, you should get 25+ easily.
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Ah that's fair enough. I expect C's on both exams and C's for sacs, so that's good to hear, thanks again for the neat tool! :)
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I just had my VET Interactive Digital Media exam today, and I'm really kicking myself.
See I got 73/75 for the SACs and did 40 hours of study in the past 3 weeks but when the exam come today the exam had 30% of the questions from completely out of the blue, nothing to do with anything on previous exams so I think I will only be getting 74/90 for my exam. Since I was aiming for high 40s and have the top SAC mark and likely still the top exam mark is there any other factors that could boost my score above my awful exam today?? I am so worried I've put all this effort in for nothing! Is there any others factors or anything I can do to make my score more reasonable? Since I thoroughly believe the exam was unfair since there is no textbook for the subject.
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Hi,
Would this apply for a subject with few numbers (around 200) eg Latin?
Thanks
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The numbers of students probably matters less than the grade ranges, languages it tends to not work quite well :P
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What about a subject like bio were marks are never over 72.5?
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What about a subject like bio were marks are never over 72.5?
what the marks actually are is quite irrelevant, it's what ranges correspond to what letter grade - which can be found on the grade distributions.
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I don't know how accurate this is for English. I was rank 5/60 Unit 3 - Rank 4/60 Unit 4 and hypothetically if I got 5-6-6 thats a High C+. Given that ranks 5 and 4 are Mid A+s it adds to 6+ which is 37+. Is that possible
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I have a question regarding SACS, in the study summary, Unit 3 and 4 are treated differently, however on the grade distributions unit 3 and 4 get one letter grade. So how would I use this system then? For example, methods unit 3 is worth 20% while unit 4 is worth 14%.
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Dear OP, I love you, this topic is amazing.
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This is really great, it was really close to what I actually got, mass kudos!
:)
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actually predicted my study scores right :))) EXACTLY .!
thanks paulsterio :)
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Biology 2012; 2 days before I got my score I calculated 9.25*0.33+9*0.34+8*0.33 = 8.75 according to this I would be just under 45 which requires a 9 I got 44, this is fully legit, I was a tad sceptical (not wanting to give myself a false sense of hope and expect 44 but get 41) but it came true, this is actually perfect :D
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Umm, just wondering how we're meant to estimate the GA3 mark is that's the final exam? Or do we just base that off GA1 and GA2?
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any tips on how to work out study score for a language? because there are 2 exams, but on the grade distribution page they are counted together despite the oral being weighted less than the written
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so apparently im going to get 39+ for methods.. is this before or after scaling?
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so apparently im going to get 39+ for methods.. is this before or after scaling?
How to Predict your own Study Score
Before scaling
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hi! could you help me to calculate my furthermath ss, i alr did mine and i got 45+ but im not sure whether its correct or not
My sacs score are (in order): 92%, 92%, 100%, 68%, 93%, 100% (first rank in my cohort)
My first exam score: 39/40
My second exam score: 57/60
Thanks in advance!! :)
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hi! could you help me to calculate my furthermath ss, i alr did mine and i got 45+ but im not sure whether its correct or not
My sacs score are (in order): 92%, 92%, 100%, 68%, 93%, 100% (first rank in my cohort)
My first exam score: 39/40
My second exam score: 57/60
Thanks in advance!! :)
around 47
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around 47
Thank you!
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Hi!
If I did badly on exams, will my SAC scores be dropped?
Thanks!
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Hi!
If I did badly on exams, will my SAC scores be dropped?
Thanks!
no
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if I got in health and human devel
unit 3 sac score average of 80% and unit 4 88% and 70% in the exam what SS will I get??
and English average 90% in sacs what exam marks would I need for 40
and PE 92% average in sacs?
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Hi!
If I did badly on exams, will my SAC scores be dropped?
Thanks!
It really depends on your cohort and your rank. I won't go into detail, but in general, if the rest of your cohort did well, your SAC marks won't drop and might even be scaled up. If they didn't perform well, then yes it will most likely drop.
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Hello,
if i got
A+ in my sacs
and got 28/40 for exam 1
and 54/60 for exam 2 for further maths and a very weak cohort
what ss am i likely to get?
thanks
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Hi guys,
Does this point system still work for years other than 2011?
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Hi guys,
Does this point system still work for years other than 2011?
yes, works for every year
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Hi all.
Hopefully VCE is treating you well.
As a year 12, I'm keen to find out the likeliness of obtaining a study score of 40+ for the following three subjects;
1. English:
SAC1 - Oral Presentation (A)
SAC 2 - Context (B+)
SAC 3 - Text Response (C)
plus more SACs to come.
2. History - Revolutions
SAC1 (D+)
SAC 2 (D+)
plus more to come.
3. Global Politics
SAC1 (C)
SAC2 (A)
plus more to come.
As you can see above, my grades in English are falling, :-[ despite being a "top student" in class in terms of overall abilities in English, according to the teachers, I tend to go through test anxiety which causes me to panic and therefore not perform to my full potential. My condition doesn't really fit under the categories of special consideration, unfortunately, so I'll have to work to improve/calm myself during the exam.
I have not been preparing efficiently for the SACs overall, to be honest, particularly for Revolutions, and I'm only starting to work harder. According to the VCE ATAR calculator, I will only be able to achieve an ATAR score of 90+ if I receive a 40+ on at least two of the mentioned subjects. Is there any chance, if there is an improvement in the grades of my upcoming SACs, that I will be able to attain a study score of above 40 in these subjects?
Your response would be appreciated.
Cheers! :)
The Tsarina
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This is a very interesting calculator. Dunno if it's accurate but it'd be nice if this works.
Just a question, are the results scaled or not? Because the school I attend gives crazy hard SACs (eg. SAC 2 had the cohort averaging 35%). Because of this, my SAC scores aren't great but I have found the VTAC exams much easier. Is there any compensation for this?
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If I got an A (89.95)for unit 3 and mid range A+ and I was top of the class for unit3 and in the the top or second top range for the second unit, how would it moderate??
Im cluelesss
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Hey guys, not trying to just complain point or out mistakes, but this youtube reaction video has got me seriously worried about my English study score :( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gr__WIE-Nks , the guy said he got A, A, A for English and only 34.... :/ would his A's just have been extremely low, because I would have thought with those scores you'd at least me 35+ (as this calc also suggests)?
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Hey guys, not trying to just complain point or out mistakes, but this youtube reaction video has got me seriously worried about my English study score :( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gr__WIE-Nks , the guy said he got A, A, A for English and only 34.... :/ would his A's just have been extremely low, because I would have thought with those scores you'd at least me 35+ (as this calc also suggests)?
idk i got A A B+ and i got 37
For lit tho i got A B+ A and 32.. lit is weird man, be glad its english haha
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is this your raw score or scaled?????? this makes my spesh hopes not look good if raw :/
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I calculated all my study scores and gave me an ATAR of 87.50. Don't know if I should feel happy or sceptical about this.
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I calculated all my study scores and gave me an ATAR of 87.50. Don't know if I should feel happy or sceptical about this.
Nothing wrong with healthy scepticism. Also nothing wrong with being happy. Probably best to be both and do your best with your remaining SACs and the exams, just to be sure. :)
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If anybody did this method and is worried they got a really low study score, fear not. After my Psychology exam last year (before I got my results) I did this because I was stressing about what I would get.
After doing this and then triple checking it, it told me I would be getting a 32 raw score. Fortunately for myself, this method turned out to be completely incorrect as I got a 42.
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I can't see the use of this. This is very outdated and basically should be deleted from the website. It's making other's feel like they can't get their dream study score. Please remove this outdated method
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I can't see the use of this. This is very outdated and basically should be deleted from the website. It's making other's feel like they can't get their dream study score. Please remove this outdated method
I just ran my actual GAs and Study Scores through this and got almost exact answers. Admittedly I don't think any of my study scores could be called anyone's dream scores (they're all reasonably unimpressive ::) ) so I can't account for the extremes of the prediction accuracy but that being said, I wouldn't call it an outdated method given that it worked.
I generally stand by the philosophy that it's silly to waste time predicting your study scores when you could be using that time working toward getting a better one. If you're getting disappointing scores using this method, maybe you're being too hard yourself while estimating your GAs. Ultimately your predictions will never influence your actual study score, so if you feel it's useless there's no real benefit in doing it. Anyone can get a great score if they work hard enough. :)
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The data we are supposed to run on is his researched data from 2012? No way man. I never trust out dated data as fluctuations and outliers skew any data set
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The data we are supposed to run on is his researched data from 2012? No way man. I never trust out dated data as fluctuations and outliers skew any data set
You can use the grade distributions from the most recent year to make calculations as accurate as possible :)
Obviously, nothing will be perfect - it is only a prediction, after all! This thread can be a great resource for the people that do wish to make predictions, though, and provides just one of the methods of study score prediction that are out there.
If someone does not receive a prediction that is as high as they desire, perhaps it can act as motivation to go and study more and work harder in order to realise their goal. :)
For what it's worth, I remember trying this back in 2015 for Revolutions, and it predicted the exact study score I achieved for it :) Once scores were released last year, I used the predictor and got very similar numbers to what my actual study scores were.
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hey guys im in the top half of my class in biology (certainly not the top 15), do i still have a chance in getting a 40+ study score in bio? if so, what mark would i need to achieve miraculously in the bio exam? (it said on a website my cohort is 330)
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This method calculates the raw score right?
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This method calculates the raw score right?
yup just the raw study score
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hey guys im in the top half of my class in biology (certainly not the top 15), do i still have a chance in getting a 40+ study score in bio? if so, what mark would i need to achieve miraculously in the bio exam? (it said on a website my cohort is 330)
It really depends on how good everyone who is beating you is and how well they do on the exam. If they do well on the exam and you do very well then it is possible. Either way doing well on the exam isn't going to hurt you. :)
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hey guys regarding this estimation, my cohort is made up of 3 student. If the three of us have the same marks but in the exam I preform reasonably well and the other 2 does bad or average. Does their performence affect my study score?
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For English SACS, I got A+ for Unit 3 and 4. Both of units were 'Very High A+'; my lowest SAC was 93. I calculated my scores assuming I'd get 0 for the English exam, and I got 5 points (0.25*10+.25*10), which is 37+. Is this accurate?
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For English SACS, I got A+ for Unit 3 and 4. Both of units were 'Very High A+'; my lowest SAC was 93. I calculated my scores assuming I'd get 0 for the English exam, and I got 5 points (0.25*10+.25*10), which is 37+. Is this accurate?
I think this system is a bit flawed in the way it works for lower study scores. According to your calculations, you would get 35+ for getting 50% overall in the coursework and exam, however in reality I think it would be much lower. In last years graded distribution, the average student received 64.7/100 for GA1, 68/100 for GA2 and 32.7/60 for GA3, giving a combined weighted percentage of 60.4%, meaning your hypothesised 50% would be significantly below the median, resulting in an <30 study score.