ATAR Notes: Forum

General Discussion => General Discussion Boards => News and Politics => Topic started by: sweetiepi on November 08, 2016, 05:01:37 pm

Title: American presidential election
Post by: sweetiepi on November 08, 2016, 05:01:37 pm
Just a curious poll to see who people think will win the election...


I am NOT responsible for any debates that come because this :P
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: Aaron on November 08, 2016, 05:07:51 pm
Just a quick add on note to insanipi's:

Please keep all debate and discussion civil and respectful of other views (whatever they might be). We will not hesitate to remove posts and/or warn if necessary.
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: Calebark on November 08, 2016, 05:08:04 pm
I vote Mildred , the candidate from Old Friends Senior Dog Sanctuary. I think her dogma is the opposite of a catastrophe. She is not a pugilistic candidate, she is very peaceful. Come on guys, embark on the Mildred Ship!

Edit: In all seriousness though, I'd say it'd be very difficult for a third party candidate to win without first solidifying their party as the third party, not a third party.
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: HighTide on November 08, 2016, 05:33:32 pm
I vote Mildred , the candidate from Old Friends Senior Dog Sanctuary. I think her dogma is the opposite of a catastrophe. She is not a pugilistic candidate, she is very peaceful. Come on guys, embark on the Mildred Ship!

Edit: In all seriousness though, I'd say it'd be very difficult for a third party candidate to win without first solidifying their party as the third party, not a third party.
That was so cringeworthy, it made me smile.  :o
(http://i.imgur.com/nyXpH4r.png)

Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: jamonwindeyer on November 08, 2016, 08:30:14 pm
As close as it has seemed in the final days, it's quite possible that the US Media Outlets just agreed to all pump up how close it was :P I'm thinking Clinton, it's been such a bizarre couple of months I'm almost sad to see the circus end  :-X
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: The Usual Student on November 08, 2016, 08:41:25 pm
im just here to see if AN has any trumpers :)
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: HopefulLawStudent on November 08, 2016, 09:59:24 pm
I just realised... the world will be a different place after my last exam (Legal). Should know who wins by then.

I just hope that Trump doesnt win (I'm not gonna say it's impossible though cos that's what I said about Brexit and look how that went...).
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: Joseph41 on November 08, 2016, 10:03:30 pm
I'm going to both enjoy and hate the next 24 hours. Bigly.
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: sweetiepi on November 08, 2016, 10:04:57 pm
I'm going to both enjoy and hate the next 24 hours. Bigly.
Same. #bigAmericancircus
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: spectroscopy on November 09, 2016, 01:26:18 am
i think its about 80% likely clinton will win and 20% trump. i actually placed a bet on clinton for a laugh at like 1.50 or something and now its alot lower than that. trumps pretty much fucked now as he has made the most critical error possible for an american presidential candidate and that is to upset * mobilise the hispanic/latino community. historically they have very very low voter turn out and are WAY underrepresented but there have been record numbers of them turning out to vote even for early voting and with clinton already having a lead i think this will pretty much hammer the nail n the coffin for trump. this will definitely hurt him especially in florida which is a super important state and it will weaken his lead in alot of the red southern states too. arizonas population is like 30% hispanic/latino and alot of these southern states have seen their economies be helped quite a bit by NAFTA which trump hates which will only further the amount of people against him. i think clinton pretty safely has this one
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: elysepopplewell on November 09, 2016, 11:50:56 am
If Hillary wins Florida, it's all over for Trump. But, it is a bit of a retirement state...I saw a program yesterday that went to several groups for retired people around Florida and took some polls (lawn bowls, bingo, even a knitting group lol), and Trump was an overwhelming winner amongst that demographic. OBVIOUSLY, this is not some reputable poll, but I don't doubt that an older demographic would admire the stability and security "promised" in Trump's campaign. 
I hope Hillary wins, I think she's very admirable.

Edit: Polls closing in Floria...
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: vox nihili on November 09, 2016, 12:05:46 pm
If Hillary wins Florida, it's all over for Trump. But, it is a bit of a retirement state...I saw a program yesterday that went to several groups for retired people around Florida and took some polls (lawn bowls, bingo, even a knitting group lol), and Trump was an overwhelming winner amongst that demographic. OBVIOUSLY, this is not some reputable poll, but I don't doubt that an older demographic would admire the stability and security "promised" in Trump's campaign. 
I hope Hillary wins, I think she's very admirable.

Edit: Polls closing in Floria...

Senate race in Florida is also one to watch. Marco Rubio looks to be on the nose there.

Has been bouncing around all morning though, Hillary is marginally ahead in Florida with a 2% lead over Trump and 25% of the vote counted. Looks as though she's won in all of the major cities there except for Jacksonville, whilst Trump has swept the rural counties.
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: vox nihili on November 09, 2016, 01:34:26 pm
Just a friendly update for everyone:



Trump is performing better than expected. New York Times have just switched their prediction to a Trump win (their prediction is dynamic; i.e. it's based on the results as they come in).
Also notable is the fact that Clinton looks set to lose Virginia, where her running mate (Tim Kaine) was both governor and senator.
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: Joseph41 on November 09, 2016, 01:56:14 pm
I was up a lot of the night watching the coverage, had a nap for a couple of hours, and the feel of the thing has certainly changed in that time IMO.
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: vox nihili on November 09, 2016, 02:03:46 pm
Results are firming for Trump, with the NY Times now giving him a 66% chance of victory. This is from an 80% chance of a Clinton victory when the count started; so momentum is well and truly with Trump.



TL;DR: gg world
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: jamonwindeyer on November 09, 2016, 02:07:07 pm
Results are firming for Trump, with the NY Times now giving him a 66% chance of victory. This is from an 80% chance of a Clinton victory when the count started; so momentum is well and truly with Trump.

TL;DR: gg world

In the 5 hours between walking into my exam and then getting home now, the feeling has changed massively. Absolutely bizarre!
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: Dettol(forThatHealthyTouch) on November 09, 2016, 02:08:20 pm
Results are firming for Trump, with the NY Times now giving him a 66% chance of victory. This is from an 80% chance of a Clinton victory when the count started; so momentum is well and truly with Trump.



TL;DR: gg world


It could possibly be. Currently trump has the lead in the big three states of Ohio Florida and north Carolina. He even has 137 to Clinton's 104 electoral votes(270 to win).
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: vox nihili on November 09, 2016, 02:17:46 pm
In the ten minutes since I wrote that post, it's now gone up to 80% likely Trump victory. Hilary still likely to win the popular vote though, by a margin of about 2% on these numbers.


Florida (a key state) is a almost certainly a Trump victory. With 95% counted and Trump up by two points, chances of a Hilary victory there are minuscule (she's not within cooee of the 95% CI). Virginia, on the other hand, looks as though it will go to the democracts now, so small mercies.


Other interesting tidbits:

-Hilary got absolute smashed in Arkansas (where Bill is from)
-She won in New York (where Trump is from, and she was senator)
-Hilary won her home state (Illinois) in a landslide
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: Dettol(forThatHealthyTouch) on November 09, 2016, 02:22:58 pm
this may blow your mind, it has been said that if trump manages to win the Ohio north Carolina and Florida, all he needs to do to win is basically just gain the votes of the states that are already traditionally republican. Since, his leading in all three, some, albeit by a relatively small amount, we may be looking at malcom turnball having talks with President Trump.

Also, it seems that share prices of major companies around the world are plummeting.
We may be also looking at some serious economic turmoil following this election.
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: Joseph41 on November 09, 2016, 02:29:56 pm
(http://i66.tinypic.com/e7fdvo.png)
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: vox nihili on November 09, 2016, 02:41:08 pm
90%


Absolute fucking insanity.
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: Joseph41 on November 09, 2016, 02:41:47 pm
What the actual fuck is happening, here?
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: ayesha2011t on November 09, 2016, 02:46:52 pm
...this has to be some sort of sick joke.
There is no way an orange xenophobe who thinks he can 'grab her (ANY female) by the pussy' will be the next president of USA. No freaking way.

Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: elysepopplewell on November 09, 2016, 02:47:09 pm
I'm panicked. That's all I can truly identify as a fact right now.
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: brenden on November 09, 2016, 02:48:01 pm
538 had Clinton at 45% 15 minutes ago and have just bumped her up to 50%. They predicted 50 states in 2012, I'm inclined to trust 'em haha, Western states will start coming in soon. Fingers. Crossed.
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: jamonwindeyer on November 09, 2016, 02:48:39 pm
Jfc...

(https://i.imgflip.com/10affx.jpg)
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: Dettol(forThatHealthyTouch) on November 09, 2016, 02:51:27 pm
if you got american currency convert it now to aud.
the conversion rate 1.00 USD for 1.36 AUD.



Disclaimer
It may still be rising.
So usd currency is depreciating. 
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: sweetiepi on November 09, 2016, 02:52:11 pm
I just heard 93% chance for Trump...

(http://i.imgur.com/5SfnQWR.jpg)
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: elysepopplewell on November 09, 2016, 02:53:03 pm
...this has to be some sort of sick joke.
There is no way an orange xenophobe who thinks he can 'grab her (ANY female) by the pussy' will be the next president of USA. No freaking way.

I'm feeling super SUPER on edge with the normalisation of symbolic + sexual entitlement to women perpetrated by men like Trump, (and then manifested by young men like on the YTB Meet up page - Did this make Vic newsfeeds? Or just Syd?). YTB aside, Trump represents a harmful model of double standards and gendered entitlement and I do not want POTUS feeding into that, I want POTUS disrupting, DISMANTLING that.
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: Joseph41 on November 09, 2016, 03:02:21 pm
Trump wins Florida.

EDIT: And Nick goes off to shower because he feels a little dirty.
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: Aaron on November 09, 2016, 03:04:46 pm
Make America great again folks!
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: vox nihili on November 09, 2016, 03:07:48 pm
NY Times prediction now on 95% likely. So we now have statistical significance.


Not entirely sure about their methods for making this prediction, so brenden is certainly correct to express some doubt as to its veracity. My major concern is that the prediction has come from 83% Clinton at the start of the night to >95% Trump now. The momentum has been with Trump all night and, as each result comes in, it becomes increasingly clear that the polls have underestimated the support for Trump.

Incidentally, foreign media outlets have more leeway with what results they can report and what predictions they can make. Even with the Western states factored in for Clinton, the ABC (Australia) still has Trump winning, although there's still a fair degree of uncertainty surrounding that.



At the moment, Trump is only 4 ahead on those states declared, so there is hope still for Clinton. She would have to have a fairly significant turnaround in a fuck tonne of states atm though, which seems increasingly unlikely.


As in the UK, today's results highlight the difficulty of obtaining accurate polling data in counties where voting isn't compulsory. Recall that in the UK, Labour was supposed to romp home in the 2015 general election (they didn't; they actually went backwards) and Brexit was also meant to be summarily defeated, it wasn't. Sad to think that this could all have been avoided if the US (and the UK for that matter) had compulsory voting.
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: ayesha2011t on November 09, 2016, 03:17:18 pm
(http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20161108/d0a122ea5b24ce3b90c538a64ddaf652.jpg)
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: vox nihili on November 09, 2016, 04:09:53 pm
FiveThirtyEight now gives Trump an 84% chance of winning. NY Times holding steady at >95%.
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: Dettol(forThatHealthyTouch) on November 09, 2016, 04:14:05 pm
lol, was watching channel 7 and they stated that the immigration site for Canada crashed.
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: elysepopplewell on November 09, 2016, 04:39:20 pm
*bites nails*
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: HopefulLawStudent on November 09, 2016, 05:08:17 pm
Me watching the presidential election like:

(http://sports.cbsimg.net/images/nhl/blog/ReimerFamilyStressed.gif)
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: Orb on November 09, 2016, 05:44:03 pm
William Hill has Hillary at $11 per $1, which basically implies that there's a 96-97% of Trump winning.

I'm absolutely shocked that this happened. While I'm not the biggest fan of Hillary, I find it ridiculous that so many people have it in them to vote for Trump.

Speechless.
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: Aaron on November 09, 2016, 06:00:29 pm
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-11-09/donald-trump-wins-us-election-defeats-hillary-clinton/8006776

Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: HasibA on November 09, 2016, 06:00:58 pm
trump is actually going to win, what the actual fk
googling us election says he needs <10 more electoral votes
what the actual fuckj
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: RuiAce on November 09, 2016, 06:02:41 pm
Well, how do we feel about Trump winning

I'm just laughing at the "state" of the US population
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: Elizawei on November 09, 2016, 06:03:05 pm
That moment when someone who started out as a meme/joke, turns out likely become the next president of US...
Reverse psychology anyone? I guess with all the internet and media attention of mocking Trump, we just gave him more coverage and attention...  ._.
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: vox nihili on November 09, 2016, 06:05:33 pm
NYT have effectively called it too. He's only 5 electoral votes off according to the AP count (which is pretty much taken as gospel).




There are no words to describe the sheer stupidity of this result.


Things OK in the US now:



Things not OK in American now:

Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: HighTide on November 09, 2016, 06:08:39 pm
Yeah it is ridiculous but realistically, we were always left between a rock and a hard place. Although, I'm sure I can say for everyone that we're all looking forward to seeing what he does in his first few days as president. Buckle up for a rollercoaster ride everyone.
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: Adequace on November 09, 2016, 06:11:16 pm
Are there any major implications of Trump becoming president, especially towards Australia? If not, I'll continue laughing away.
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: brenden on November 09, 2016, 06:12:42 pm
Yeah it is ridiculous but realistically, we were always left between a rock and a hard place. Although, I'm sure I can say for everyone that we're all looking forward to seeing what he does in his first few days as president. Buckle up for a rollercoaster ride everyone.
A rock and a qualifidd presidential candidate, maybe. lol
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: ayesha2011t on November 09, 2016, 06:14:15 pm
First, there was the first black president of the US, now Americans need to prepare for the first orange president. yay for diversity..?
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: Adequace on November 09, 2016, 06:15:08 pm
First, there was the first black president of the US, now Americans need to prepare for the first orange president. yay
#orangelivesmatter
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: keltingmeith on November 09, 2016, 06:18:25 pm
(https://i.imgflip.com/mg44s.jpg)


Simpsons, always there for help.
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: HighTide on November 09, 2016, 06:22:35 pm
A rock and a qualifidd presidential candidate, maybe. lol
I agree with that to an extent. Hillary is obviously experienced and she knows how to communicate with others to get what she wants and in that way she is very professional. But at the same time, she's not genuine. I would personally have voted for Hillary due to Trump's ridiculous ideas (past and most likely future) but at the same time, her ulterior motives make me wonder "Better the devil you know than the devil you don't".
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: jamonwindeyer on November 09, 2016, 06:26:49 pm
I agree with that to an extent. Hillary is obviously experienced and she knows how to communicate with others to get what she wants and in that way she is very professional. But at the same time, she's not genuine. I would personally have voted for Hillary due to Trump's ridiculous ideas (past and most likely future) but at the same time, her ulterior motives make me wonder "Better the devil you know than the devil you don't".

Better a politician for president than a reality TV star imo...

Absolutely baffling.
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: vox nihili on November 09, 2016, 06:30:58 pm
I agree with that to an extent. Hillary is obviously experienced and she knows how to communicate with others to get what she wants and in that way she is very professional. But at the same time, she's not genuine. I would personally have voted for Hillary due to Trump's ridiculous ideas (past and most likely future) but at the same time, her ulterior motives make me wonder "Better the devil you know than the devil you don't".

Oh yeah, because the man who made billions of dollars ripping people off is more "genuine" when he says that he's going to be the one to battle for American workers and American jobs. The man who, literally, said that he wanted to run for the Republican party because they're "so stupid I could just lie and they'd believe everything I said" is more genuine.

Compare this to the woman who has spent ALL of her life fighting for civil rights. Who has spent all of her life in public life when, frankly, she could be making an absolute shit tonne doing other shit, is the one who's less genuine.

Are there any major implications of Trump becoming president, especially towards Australia? If not, I'll continue laughing away.

Many. A lot of it is fairly complex stuff and I can't pretend that I really get it all, but basically:

His policies are really anti-free trade. For instance, he wants to end NAFTA (which is a free trade agreement) and also wants to add 40% tarrifs on Chinese products—basically increase the price of every good from China by 40%. This basically reduces the capacity of the businesses with which we do trade to make money. If they make less money, there's less money for them to buy shit from us, then we lose out.

He's also all for nuclear proliferation. He's on the record as saying that more countries should have access to nukes. Don't even need to explain why that's bad.


Anyway, shit explanation, but those are a couple of examples of why Trump is bad from us, aside from the identity politics of it as well. Australians know US presidents well. They get a lot of coverage here. So the things he says are things that will also hit home here. All the racist rhetoric. The anti-women rhetoric, etc. That has an impact here, too.
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: Dettol(forThatHealthyTouch) on November 09, 2016, 06:38:42 pm
Are there any major implications of Trump becoming president, especially towards Australia? If not, I'll continue laughing away.

Trump has won 276 to 218. Implications for australia have already started, with 35 billion dollars wiped out of our economy, as this news goes public, there is no doubt that there will be much more than just that.
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: olivercutbill on November 09, 2016, 06:39:02 pm
Trump is appealing to those who see no restraint and forethought, and rather brashness and explosive, provocative language, as the new type of 'authenticity'.

Elites took trump literally, supporters took him figuratively and laughed the whole way. Look at reddit.com/r/the_donald for people memeing their way to the white house.

Even latently, the prospect of a Trump-nuclear marriage is terrifying.
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: olivercutbill on November 09, 2016, 06:41:26 pm
Additionally, the A$ might be worth something now.

AUSTRALIA NEW LARGEST OUTBOUND TOURIST MARKET 2K16
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: HighTide on November 09, 2016, 06:42:25 pm
Oh yeah, because the man who made billions of dollars ripping people off is more "genuine" when he says that he's going to be the one to battle for American workers and American jobs. The man who, literally, said that he wanted to run for the Republican party because they're "so stupid I could just lie and they'd believe everything I said" is more genuine.

Compare this to the woman who has spent ALL of her life fighting for civil rights. Who has spent all of her life in public life when, frankly, she could be making an absolute shit tonne doing other shit, is the one who's less genuine.

Many. A lot of it is fairly complex stuff and I can't pretend that I really get it all, but basically:

His policies are really anti-free trade. For instance, he wants to end NAFTA (which is a free trade agreement) and also wants to add 40% tarrifs on Chinese products—basically increase the price of every good from China by 40%. This basically reduces the capacity of the businesses with which we do trade to make money. If they make less money, there's less money for them to buy shit from us, then we lose out.

He's also all for nuclear proliferation. He's on the record as saying that more countries should have access to nukes. Don't even need to explain why that's bad.


Anyway, shit explanation, but those are a couple of examples of why Trump is bad from us, aside from the identity politics of it as well. Australians know US presidents well. They get a lot of coverage here. So the things he says are things that will also hit home here. All the racist rhetoric. The anti-women rhetoric, etc. That has an impact here, too.
I never actually implied Trump is genuine. Believe me I'm not saying one's better than the other. I'm just saying that neither should be the POTUS.
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: Joseph41 on November 09, 2016, 06:43:08 pm
Speechless.
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: vox nihili on November 09, 2016, 06:53:46 pm
I never actually implied Trump is genuine. Believe me I'm not saying one's better than the other. I'm just saying that neither should be the POTUS.

Fair, wasn't fair of me to imply that you had implied it.


The mods were talking about this just the other day actually. I just really can't understand all the hate for Hillary and why people think that she's an unacceptable choice for president. She's calm under pressure, which she had demonstrated 1000x over despite the vitriol levelled at her. She's intelligent and always across her brief. She comes in with enormous experience, having got to know the workings of the White House as First Lady and SoS, learning the ropes at the Capitol as a senator and then rubbing shoulders with leaders all around the world, once again as SoS. Sure, she has had some policy failures, but these have been outstripped by the enormous number of successes she's had over a very long career in public life.

Her policy positions are largely agreeable too. She's for gun laws, pro-choice, in favour of same sex marriage. She's in favour of allowing illegal immigrants, who have lived in and contributed to the US for years, to stay. She's also pro-trade and respected by world leaders all around the world.

Lastly, the e-mail scandal is such a non-issue. Genuinely, if the same thing happened here, nobody would give a rats arse. Oh wait, the same thing is happening here. It was revealed last month (I think?) that the PM and his ministers are using a private survey to communicate that hasn't been vetted and over which they may be sharing classified material. Sound familiar?
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: RuiAce on November 09, 2016, 07:09:59 pm
Why does everyone seem so upset.

I would've preferred Hilary too just because of what kind of person trump is but either way US was fucked.
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: literally lauren on November 09, 2016, 07:11:45 pm
pfft, what's he gonna do? Build a wall around me and make the Mexicans pay for it?

Come at me, Donald -.-


hindsight is 20/20
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: jamonwindeyer on November 09, 2016, 07:48:35 pm

Why does everyone seem so upset.

I would've preferred Hilary too just because of what kind of person trump is but either way US was fucked.

A man accused of sexual assault, who made racism a part of his political platform, is the most politically influential person in the Western World ... I think that's all the reason we need....

Compared to (at worst) some objectionable policies from Clinton, which is always the case. In my opinion, there is literally no comparison between the damage a politician like Clinton COULD do, and what the divisiveness that Trump promotes WILL do.

All we can hope is that the checks and balances system in the US encourages him to retreat from his aggressive campaign policies.
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: Cornrow Kenny on November 09, 2016, 08:05:41 pm
I haven't been keeping up with the election a great deal bar today nor have I read through all of this thread but I am a fan of Trump's plan to build a barrier on the Mexican border.
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: vox nihili on November 09, 2016, 08:21:09 pm
I haven't been keeping up with the election a great deal bar today nor have I read through all of this thread but I am a fan of Trump's plan to build a barrier on the Mexican border.

(http://m.memegen.com/9m0r6p.jpg)
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: geminii on November 09, 2016, 08:44:46 pm
People weren't voting for who they wanted - they were voting against who they didn't want. Either way, America would lose. Although at the start I would have preferred Hilary to win, today I hoped Donald would win.

I understand why a lot of people don't like Donald but you have to realise that at least, unlike Hillary, Donald speaks the truth, and that he can actually take some action and make America better. Hillary consistently lies, even laughing at women her husband raped (while there are only allegations that Trump raped people - and isn't it convenient that all these women are coming out now?) I'm not saying Trump didn't rape people - he very well may have - but we don't know for a fact. But what we do know for a fact is that Hillary laughed at the women that Bill Clinton, her own husband, had hurt, and what does that say about her?
She put on a facade of kindness and caring for America - but we all know she lied about the emails. According to her, none of them were classified. But it was found that many of her emails actually contained classified information. Another lie was about how she stated that 95% of her emails were stored on the database, while in actuality, only about 5% were.
And the latest lie - Hillary said that she would support the outcome of the election, whether she won or Donald won. Well, look how that turned out - she didn't show up to meet her campaigners today and decided not to speak. What does that say about Hillary? Add another lie to the already long list! At least Donald Trump was frank and honest in saying that he may or may not accept the outcome. America needs an honest president.

I'm not saying I would have voted for Trump. If I was American I would have voted for a third party, Clifton Roberts. But what I am saying is that Trump is less worse than Hillary.

Of course everyone is open to have their own opinions!  :) :)
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: Russ on November 09, 2016, 09:05:54 pm
Her policy positions are largely agreeable too. She's for gun laws, pro-choice, in favour of same sex marriage. She's in favour of allowing illegal immigrants, who have lived in and contributed to the US for years, to stay. She's also pro-trade and respected by world leaders all around the world.

Her policy positions are agreeable to you. The American working class feel very differently and I think the most significant part of this result is just how badly they were underestimated. Clinton is as establishment as they get, up there with Bush and Kennedy and by all accounts the perception of an influential elite costing the average American their opportunities to succeed resonated with the country. Her campaign didn't really fight on that axis and it seems to have been a mistake (calling Trump supporters deplorable was monumentally stupid).

I also disagree that the email scandal was a non-issue, there was plenty of content that fed right into the above concerns about corruption and self-interest, from being given debate questions in advance to inappropriate use of money etc.
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: geminii on November 09, 2016, 09:08:39 pm
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

I'm not saying Trump isn't bad! He's homophobic, racist, and wants to build a wall between America and Mexico. That's really horrible!

Ugh, if only they picked better candidates, America wouldn't be in this mess!

Her policy positions are agreeable to you. The American working class feel very differently and I think the most significant part of this result is just how badly they were underestimated. Clinton is as establishment as they get, up there with Bush and Kennedy and by all accounts the perception of an influential elite costing the average American their opportunities to succeed resonated with the country. Her campaign didn't really fight on that axis and it seems to have been a mistake (calling Trump supporters deplorable was monumentally stupid).

I also disagree that the email scandal was a non-issue, there was plenty of content that fed right into the above concerns about corruption and self-interest, from being given debate questions in advance to inappropriate use of money etc.

Agreed!
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: The Usual Student on November 09, 2016, 09:13:30 pm
Just thinking about kanye vs trump 2020........
holy crap that one will be a lively election.....
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: jamonwindeyer on November 09, 2016, 09:36:09 pm
Although I'm no supporter of Trump, whenever people bring up Trump's sexual assault allegations, I just think it reeks of hypocrisy- a 5 second google search of "Bill Clinton" highlights this reality...

Bill Clinton wasn't running for president?
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: mahler004 on November 09, 2016, 09:38:44 pm
I've been watching this all day. I think I wrote on these forums in March or so that "Trump won't win the primary, and if he does, he'll get slaughtered by Clinton in the general." Yep. For better or worse, I was wrong.

I'm pretty shocked that the polls got it this wrong, frankly. The minute she had to wait to win Virginia (should have been an easy win), the fact that she's going to lose Florida and the entire Rust Belt, yeah. It's pretty incredible. Points to a major electoral realignment.

Either way, then sun will rise tomorrow morning (and on the morning of January 21, and every morning thereafter). Trump won't be a good President, but America is a strong country, and a strong republic. Saner minds will prevail. I hope.

Although I'm no supporter of Trump, whenever people bring up Trump's sexual assault allegations, I just think it reeks of hypocrisy- a 5 second google search of "Bill Clinton" highlights this reality...

For what it's worth, they're not allegations. He literally admitted to sexual assault.

Hillary Clinton and Bill Clinton are also two different people.
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: Cornrow Kenny on November 09, 2016, 09:38:51 pm
Moral of the story - the public cannot be trusted. This is why we need dictatorships!

 :P
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: Orb on November 09, 2016, 09:39:40 pm
Bill Clinton wasn't running for president?

If you're married to someone who commits sexual assault, it really speaks quite a lot about yourself imo.

I still think Hillary was the better choice.
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: Cornrow Kenny on November 09, 2016, 09:44:39 pm
I'm pretty shocked that the polls got it this wrong, frankly. The minute she had to wait to win Virginia (should have been an easy win), the fact that she's going to lose Florida and the entire Rust Belt, yeah. It's pretty incredible. Points to a major electoral realignment.
There was, and still is, a stigma behind being a Trump supporter. Worsened by Clinton's extreme celebrity support, few would be open about being a Trump supporter in fear of being ridiculed or attacked. Predictions and polls did not and could not account for all the hidden Trump supporters who came out of the bushes to vote.
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: mahler004 on November 09, 2016, 09:52:37 pm
There was, and still is, a stigma behind being a Trump supporter. Worsened by Clinton's extreme celebrity support, few would be open about being a Trump supporter in fear of being ridiculed or attacked. Predictions and polls did not and could not account for all the hidden Trump supporters who came out of the bushes to vote.

Yeah. It's pretty clear that pollsters just got their model of the electorate wrong. Whole thing points to very large white working class turnout. There was also a fairly large undecided vote, even in the last few days, which adds a fair degree of uncertainty. US pollsters generally have a pretty good record, but they got this one wrong by a pretty incredible margin, and I simply think it's because they got their electoral model wrong.

There's a couple of other things - there are vocal Trump supporters (the hat-wearing, #MAGA crowd) and I think people though that all Trump voters were like that. In the last few days, Republican holdouts seemed to have gone to Trump in the end (instead of staying home or voting for a third party.) These are people which didn't vote for Trump in the primary (and contributed to the large undecided vote) but are conservatives. They're not a natural Clinton constituency. Trump generally underperformed his polls in the primaries, and people thought he'd do so again here. Not the case.

In the end, it also appears that the so-called 'hidden Hispanic' vote didn't eventuate, or at least not to the levels that Clinton needed to flip states like Florida and Arizona.

In the end, the thing that flipped the election was conservatives coming home for Trump.

edit: I should say though, the 'conservatives are afraid to say they'll vote for conservatives in polls' isn't really all that well documented. There hasn't historically been a 'shy Tory' factor in US elections. Until now, at least.
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: TheProphetPancake on November 09, 2016, 10:02:35 pm
One things for sure though - great time to go and spend your hard-earned moolah in America
Last I checked, $1 USD= $1.30 AUD
Go now before the walls up!  ;)
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: Cornrow Kenny on November 09, 2016, 10:05:09 pm
There's a couple of other things - there are vocal Trump supporters (the hat-wearing, #MAGA crowd) and I think people though that all Trump voters were like that. In the last few days, Republican holdouts seemed to have gone to Trump in the end (instead of staying home or voting for a third party.)

Hit the nail on the head.

In the end, it also appears that the so-called 'hidden Hispanic' vote didn't eventuate, or at least not to the levels that Clinton needed to flip states like Florida and Arizona.
Agreed.

There's one more controversial thing I wanna add before I go study. I've heard the "lesser of two evils" line or something similar numerous times a day for months now, and this is what I think threw a lot of people off (I thought Clinton would win too ftr). The Americans who were saying this online or in interviews, were often using it to explain their reasoning behind voting Clinton. Rarely (if ever) the other way around. To me that makes it obvious that Clinton is not a strong candidate in the eyes of many her "supporters" who may have not even voted, merely an anti-Trump. Many who voted for Clinton saw her as the only option, while others saw Trump as a viable candidate. 

Sorry if that was obvious but it was the last line that I needed to get off my chest  :P

edit: That could be entirely wrong but from what I have observed it often seems to be the case for reasoning as to why people support Hilary more so than Trump
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: TheProphetPancake on November 09, 2016, 10:08:56 pm
If y'all want some perspective on why Trump won and the mindset behind his 'silent majority', Michael Moore wrote a fantastic letter, deffs worth a read if you're interested: http://michaelmoore.com/trumpwillwin/
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: vox nihili on November 09, 2016, 10:33:43 pm
Her policy positions are agreeable to you. The American working class feel very differently and I think the most significant part of this result is just how badly they were underestimated. Clinton is as establishment as they get, up there with Bush and Kennedy and by all accounts the perception of an influential elite costing the average American their opportunities to succeed resonated with the country. Her campaign didn't really fight on that axis and it seems to have been a mistake (calling Trump supporters deplorable was monumentally stupid).

I also disagree that the email scandal was a non-issue, there was plenty of content that fed right into the above concerns about corruption and self-interest, from being given debate questions in advance to inappropriate use of money etc.

Agreeable perhaps wasn't the right word to use. Her policies are superior to Trump's. I was giving an opinion, so I highly doubt that anybody here reading this took what I said about her policies to be a hard fact, anymore than they took my views on her personal attributes to be fact.
I suspect that Clinton lost today because of her perception as part of the elite that ruined America, just as you pointed out. Her campaign did focus very heavily on the problems facing America. Her rhetoric and, indeed, her policy output was very heavily focused on restoring fairness to the economy and trying to deal with the rising inequality in the US. Like Trump, she also focused very heavily on the theme of jobs. However, the American people clearly haven't been able to remove their image of her as part of the problem she had hoped to address.

On the e-mails, again non-issue was probably not the right word. Objectively, it is a non-issue. She didn't do anything illegal and, really, the fact that she used a private e-mail survey shouldn't be a big deal. The parallel I drew to Australia goes some way to highlight the fact that, ordinarily, this wouldn't be a big deal. However, it is certainly the case that, as you point out, it played into perceptions of Hilary Clinton as this corrupt elite who is above the law and a part of some Washington set hell bent on remaining in power, no matter what. The reality, however, is likely very far from this. I have no doubt that Hillary wanted to be in power and enjoyed power on those occasions she had it; however, the idea that she is actually corrupt is not supported by any evidence. This contrasts very nicely with the real evidence that Trump paid no tax for nearly two decades and that he may have committed sexual assault. 





Anyway, to be clear to everyone on here. I have largely spoken thus far from a partisan position and have refrained from analysing the reasons for Trump's election etc. It is not lost on me, more than any other Clinton supporter I'm sure, that this result reflects a very deep divide in the US and has been fuelled by a combination of fear of globalisation and fear of immigration, along with a healthy dose of nationalism. It is very clear that a huge number of Americans feel as though they have been failed and—in my view, incorrectly—have sought out a radically new leader to address those issues.

I am left with absolutely no doubt, though, that the Americans made the wrong choice today. They elected someone who is frequently racist, constantly degrades women—to the point that he has bragged about sexually assaulting them. He has made anti-Semitic remarks and accused Mexicans of being thieves and rapists.
To add insult to injury, his policy positions—when he's bothered to have them—are nothing short of moronic. He believes that women shouldn't have the right to abort their foetus, despite this being a constitutional right in the US. He believes in protectionism and has advocated policies such as the abolition of NAFTA and 40% tarrifs on Chinese products, which will only compound American economic woes. He is fundamentally anti-immigration. He has proposed the removal of all Muslims from the US and believes that America should build a wall between it and Mexico. He believes in massively increasing the spend on infrastructure and, at the same time, lowering taxes, without any indication as to how he plans on paying for it. To add insult to injury, he believes that those tax cuts should be focused on wealthy Americans—essentially a middle finger to the poor, white Americans that voted for him. Finally (well not finally but I've had enough now), he believes in the complete abolition of Obamacare, a relatively weak attempt—to be truthful—at delivering at least some healthcare to America's poorest, in particular. Once again, another middle finger to the people who voted for him.
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: mahler004 on November 09, 2016, 11:04:35 pm
However, the American people clearly haven't been able to remove their image of her as part of the problem she had hoped to address.

I basically agree with everything you've written. I put it to someone else that this is frustrated voters throwing a brick into the window of the establishment. Same deal with Brexit. Books will be written about the past 18 months for decades. There's clearly been a failure by the centre (both left and right) to engage people. It's how you get President-Elect Trump, and Bernie Sanders doing quite well in the Democratic primary (and Brexit, and the Austrian election results, and One Nation with four Senators...). People are seeking extremes - on both the left and right.

And yeah. Clinton ran on a detailed, progressive policy platform. Trump didn't have any policies beyond platitudes ('build a wall!', 'bomb the ... out of them.')

On the whole, it's just thoroughly depressing. This (along with Brexit) reflects an increasingly polarised, hostile, closed-off world. We're definitely in for a rough ride. I'm not too concerned about what Trump will be doing domestically (I'm not American, after all,) but what he could do in trade and foreign policy is deeply concerning.

I mean ... people were saying the same thing about George W Bush and Reagan. Trump is neither of those people, I feel confident in saying that he'll be a terrible President, but, life will go on.
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: thushan on November 10, 2016, 09:21:59 am
"He believes in protectionism and has advocated policies such as the abolition of NAFTA and 40% tarrifs on Chinese products, which will only compound American economic woes."


Trump is an economic protectionist (or believes that is what his constituency wants). I wonder whether his voters are aware that this would make goods a lot more expensive and cost of living to shoot through the roof.

BUT. Even if they do, I wonder whether his constituency may be so engrossed in their nationalism that they may not care so much that prices of goods are rising - because Trump could so easily say that this is part of the process of "making America great again". Something along the same vein of "better to die on your feet than to live on your knees". The same feelings that would make people enlist themselves into the military should there be a war (ON America, not a proxy war) to defend their nation.

Trump's economic policies are extremely risky. Simultaneous increase in infrastructure spending and lowering of company tax - probably intended to give the economy a debt-fuelled stimulus and encourage the development of local industry (local because he's likely averse to foreign involvement) is going to put the country in massive amounts of debt. My guess is that he's hoping that this could lead to the development of a competitive edge over other countries that would cause America's economy to expand long term - to allow to repay that debt. It's a HUGE gamble though - and can backfire really badly.

I honestly think his constituency have had enough - they don't care what happens next because to them, nothing can be worse than the status quo. From the point of the working class, economic growth means very little to them - because either way, they are not reaping the benefits.
Title: Re: American presidential election
Post by: anna.xo on November 13, 2016, 04:07:33 pm
One things for sure though - great time to go and spend your hard-earned moolah in America
Last I checked, $1 USD= $1.30 AUD
Go now before the walls up!  ;)

$1.33 now ;)