Spesh is very competitive, if you want 45+ raw, you'd want near full marks on both exams (I think losing 3 over both is too much)
Methods is very competitive, more margin for error than spesh, but very competitive in the top end
You're basing this on last years exam, which is a very bad representation of the big picture.
Last year, the specialist exam was very easy, easier than it had been for the past 6 or so years.
On the contrary, last year, the methods exam was very hard, harder than it had been for the past 6 or so years.
So if you're going to compare methods to specialist, don't use the easiest specialist exam vs the hardest methods exam.
Now that that's out of the way, I'll tell you a bit about them:
Further maths only gets competitive in the 40+ range. To reach a 40 in further is quite easy because most people who attempt this subject put in little effort, but at the same time, a handful of people see it as an "easy 50", so the top end (especially the 45+ range) is VERY competitive.
Maths methods has a much lower spread of marks. If you're going to try to excel at a subject, this is quite a good one to try. A 45+ in methods is quite achievable and does not require specialist maths (though specialist does help). The competition isn't too bad at the top end, since most of the 45-49 scores in methods come from people who score 40-44 in specialist. A 50 is also achievable, since this is a large subject and roughly 35 people are able to score a 50. So you only have to be rank 35 in the state.
Specialist maths is very competitive, since most students that choose this subject have a genuine interest in mathematics and work quite diligently. To score a 35-40 in specialist is about as hard as scoring a 45 in methods. Most people that do methods and specialist put more effort into specialist, so you'll have to work pretty hard to beat them at their own game. Due to such a low number of participants, only about 10 can score a 50, so the 45+ scores are very limited. I would say that this is even more competitive than further maths at the top end.