Paranoid about not getting into desired course

[BurningCookies]

For my first preference course (2800328231), my ATAR before adjustment factors is already above the lowest selection rank (Req. 84.10, ATAR: 84.65, Monash SEAS Calc: ~87.80).

However, I fear that Monash may decide that too many students have attended this course this year and would raise the selection rank to be coincidentally above my ATAR and predicted selection rank.

What is the likelihood of this (and being rejected due to this or the course being overfilled) occuring?

Preference List (None of my Study Scores are below the requirements, does VTAC/[University] take the raw score or scaled?)
1. 2800328231 - Computer Science (Monash University, Clayton)
2. 2800328451 - Science (Monash University, Clayton)
3. 2800310421 - Information Technology (Monash University, Clayton)
4. 3200332831 - Computer Science (RMIT University, City)
5. 3200431761 - Engineering-Mechanical (Honours) (RMIT University, City / Bundoora)
6. 3400210751 - Engineering (Honours)(Professional) (Swinburne University of Technology, Hawthorn)
7. 3400210741 - Engineering (Honours) (Swinburne University of Technology, Hawthorn)
8. 1400514151 - Computer Science (Deakin University, Melbourne Burwood Campus)

[PhoenixxFire]

For my first preference course (2800328231), my ATAR before adjustment factors is already above the lowest selection rank (Req. 84.10, ATAR: 84.65, Monash SEAS Calc: ~87.80).

However, I fear that Monash may decide that too many students have attended this course this year and would raise the selection rank to be coincidentally above my ATAR and predicted selection rank.

What is the likelihood of this (and being rejected due to this or the course being overfilled) occuring?

The median selection rank for that course is 88.35 so half of the people offered the course last year were below that. Your selection rank is just below that, so you've got a very good chance, and as you've said you're above the minimum selection rank last year.

Monash doesn't change entry requirement because they think there's too many people applying.

Say for example there are 200 spots in this course, monash will give out offers to the people with the top 200 selection ranks, more people applying generally means there will be more people with higher selection ranks, and therefore you'll need a higher selection rank to get an offer.

However, not everyone will accept their offer. So there may be 50 people who decline, Monash will then give out offers to the next 50 people with the highest selection rank (this is what happens in second/third round offers).

Given your selection rank, it's pretty likely that you'll get a first round offer, but even if you don't you'll probably get a second round one.

Preference List (None of my Study Scores are below the requirements, does VTAC/[University] take the raw score or scaled?)
1. 2800328231 - Computer Science (Monash University, Clayton)
2. 2800328451 - Science (Monash University, Clayton)
3. 2800310421 - Information Technology (Monash University, Clayton)
4. 3200332831 - Computer Science (RMIT University, City)
5. 3200431761 - Engineering-Mechanical (Honours) (RMIT University, City / Bundoora)
6. 3400210751 - Engineering (Honours)(Professional) (Swinburne University of Technology, Hawthorn)
7. 3400210741 - Engineering (Honours) (Swinburne University of Technology, Hawthorn)
8. 1400514151 - Computer Science (Deakin University, Melbourne Burwood Campus)

They use the raw scores.

[Sine]

There is no way of knowing how the clearly ins will change until they actually release the data. There is not much you can do but wait for offers to come out, if you are super keen you could check the clearly ins of the past 5-10 years to grt a better idea of the stability or trend of that courses clearly in.

Personally I dont think that it will go up 3.75 points (the amount required tp rise to be above your SEAS calculated atar) as that is quite a big jump for 1 year but I could definitely be completely wrong.

[ammeamme]

if you are super keen you could check the clearly ins of the past 5-10 years to grt a better idea of the stability or trend of that courses clearly in.

How do you check this?