You're asking me on the difference between identical exam results with vastly differing SAC grades? I couldn't really tell you without looking at some data on students who've done that sort of thing. Speak to your career counsellor, he/she'd be pretty well informed on the topic.
How many marks you could afford to lose also depends on the subject. Remember the study score is a rank - it doesn't matter what mark you get, only that you beat the rest. Because so many who do Further are grossly overqualified (i.e. smart enough to have done Methods) you probably couldn't afford to lose more than one mark as so many would get near 100% on the exam, if not that. On the other hand, a subject almost no one could completely master like a language you could afford to lose many marks in, as there are so few fluent speakers who could get anywhere near 100%.
I hate to give you this non-answer, but a detailed answer depends on the subject and some data I don't think anyone has. Your priority should just be to do your best. You can't do any better than that.
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