Possible atar?

[billybob3]

Hi im doing chem, physics, specialist maths, methods and normal English this year and got a 40 in pe last year. umm if im averaging In my sacs a low A+ in chem, a mid A+ in methods, a high A in physics, and a B+ in spec and English what kind of atar would I get if I got these same marks in the exam? cheers

[keltingmeith]

Assuming a perfect system where you're not scaled against your cohort, your cohort won't be scaled against other cohorts, and then your exam won't be used to change the scaling of the scalings of your cohort, I estimate a possible range of about 90+. The method I used was to simply take your SACs, compare them to last year's grade distribution to find a relative percentage for where you would've lied in that cohort, then just used an inverse normal to find a study score and plugged that into the ATARcalc. I then did +-5 points, not because of any mathematical or statistical reason, just because this is a bit of a bogus method (and a lot of people will probably say I should actually do a plus/minus of way more than 5, but eh).

Why this is a shit method and you shouldn't worry about what your ATAR will look like right now

• You will be scaled against your peers and where you sit in your cohort.
• Your whole cohort will be scaled against other schools via GAT, exam results, etc.
• The above method assumes that your SAC marks reflect what you will get in ALL of your GAs, and what everyone will get in all of their GAs as well. Looking at the distributions, you can quickly see that the distributions for exams are way more negatively skewed than SACs. No uniformity whatsoever.
• An A+ for your school might be a B for another and vice-versa - during my SACs, the local grammar school had SACs about 3x easier for spec than my school did. So, just because you have an A in physics, that doesn't mean you can get an A on your physics exam.
• Those are good marks - just keep plowing through and doing your best, I'm sure you'll be fine and get a great score.

[billybob3]

yeah there is a lot to consider, thanks for that appreciate it. 

[billybob3]

I know what you mean about the easier sacs, at another school nearest mine I hear people going on about how they are getting A+'s on their specialist sac where as at my school half our class failed that topic and I got a C+ and was considered a good score. these are kids that get high 90's in methods so they aren't drop kicks haha