Abbott to face leadership spill motion after move by WA MP

[Professor Polonsky]

Presuming the lack of an underground move by Bishop, the spill will be unsuccessful. Over 40 MPs have already come out publicly against it, with less than 15 publicly supporting it. Obviously many of the 40 or so quiet ones will support it, but given some of the names on that list, it definitely won't be all.

The Turnbull camp is saying they're hopeful it'll be even, but most others predict they'll get no more than 40 MPs voting for the spill. So I only see the motion as passing if Bishop, and her supporters within the party room, switch positions and vote for it.

One of Turnbull's biggest issues, a bit like Kevin Rudd, is that he simply doesn't have allies in the party room. In Rudd's case, it was a matter of a lack of personal popularity amongst MPs; while for Turnbull it's both that (Coalition MPd form groupings, Turnbull is way on his own; as well as him pissing off most of his colleagues) alongside very few ideological buddies. He does have a few supporters, lumped in with some panicking marginal MPs, but not the sturdiest support base.

Nek minnit I'm completely wrong tomorrow morning.

[MonsieurHulot]

Looks like you were completely right.

[vox nihili]

Everybody seems so confused. Watched the ABC pretty much all day, and they've jumped from theory to theory. At one point they were saying he'd resign, then they said he'd be gone by the end of the day or in tomorrow's party meeting and an hour later they were saying the budget (May) would decide it for him. These are the best minds in politics and their lost, so I don't know what hope the rest of us has!

Personally, I think it's very odd that there haven't been any pro-Turnbull leaks. Turnbull is clearly sitting back and not trying to use the momentum of what really should be a fatal shot for Abbott.

[mahler004]

Everybody seems so confused. Watched the ABC pretty much all day, and they've jumped from theory to theory. At one point they were saying he'd resign, then they said he'd be gone by the end of the day or in tomorrow's party meeting and an hour later they were saying the budget (May) would decide it for him. These are the best minds in politics and their lost, so I don't know what hope the rest of us has!

Personally, I think it's very odd that there haven't been any pro-Turnbull leaks. Turnbull is clearly sitting back and not trying to use the momentum of what really should be a fatal shot for Abbott.

Turnbull is being very, very careful to not be like a 'wrecker.' He doesn't want to destroy Abbott, he wants Abbott to destroy himself.

If it's a bad budget in May, he's in trouble. More important is to ensure proper lines of communication between the PMO and the backbench, and to exercise less control over the frontbench.

[vox nihili]

Turnbull is being very, very careful to not be like a 'wrecker.' He doesn't want to destroy Abbott, he wants Abbott to destroy himself.

If it's a bad budget in May, he's in trouble. More important is to ensure proper lines of communication between the PMO and the backbench, and to exercise less control over the frontbench.

He's doing an excellent job of it as well. He's never been this disciplined.