Can anyone explain. I find their explanation to be plain horrible!
So Mike has either 2 or 3 of each black, blue, red and orange pencils.
To guarantee that he gets 2 pairs of pencils, each pair the same colour, we have to consider the worst case scenario which is where he keeps on picking pencils of different colours (eg. he picks black first, then blue, then red, then orange).
So let's say for the first 4 rounds of picking he's had shocking luck and has picked 4 pencils each of different colour. So now in his hand he has one black, one blue, one red and one orange pencil.
His next pick (for pencil #5) will give him a pair no matter what colour pencil he picks (since he already has one of each colour in his hand). For example let's say his 5th pencil picked is red.
Pick #6 has two possible scenarios. First, the pick could either give him his second pair of pencils (eg. he picked either black, blue or orange). This is what he wants, and yay now he has two pairs of pencils of the same colour. He can stop picking now.
UNFORTUNATELY, the other scenario is that he picks the same colour he picked in #5 (red, because he could have had 3 red pencils to begin with). If he ends up picking red, the same colour in #5, he must pick again because he still doesn't have his 2 pairs. He just has 3 red pencils and one each of black blue and orange.
Pick #7 is guaranteed to give him his other pair of pencils because he can't pick another red (max 3 of each colour). He will have to have picked either black, blue or orange. This will match up with what he picked during the first four rounds and he will now have 2 pairs of pencils.
Thus to guarantee he gets 2 pairs of the same, he needs to pick 7.