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February 28, 2026, 06:35:27 am

Author Topic: VCE Methods Question Thread!  (Read 5951365 times)  Share 

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clıppy

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Re: VCE Methods Question Thread!
« Reply #2505 on: September 08, 2013, 06:25:07 pm »
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I'm a little bit confused when it comes to transitional matrices and instead of multiplying by probabilities you multiply by a matrix that looks like
(Also, what is this type of matrix called?)

Take for example the attached question. How do I interpret it to know that i have to use a matrix, and how do i apply the matrix to find what I am looking for.
Huge thanks to someone that can clarify this for me
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Re: VCE Methods Question Thread!
« Reply #2506 on: September 08, 2013, 06:30:08 pm »
+1
Think of the matrix as your initial state, so in this case our 'success' has a probability of 1 on the first trial, and our 'failure' has a probability of 0 on the first trial. I.e. on the first trial we know that we have a success. , is the opposite of that, in that we know that our failure occurs on the first trial. Your 'success' will depending on how you define your transition matrix, i.e. the first entry in (1,1) will be the probability of what you define to be a success, given that a success has already occurred.
So in , we have our initial state . Now since Monday is , then Tuesday will be and Wednesday is , which is what we are interested in.

Hope that helps :)
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clıppy

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Re: VCE Methods Question Thread!
« Reply #2507 on: September 08, 2013, 06:50:27 pm »
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Think of the matrix as your initial state, so in this case our 'success' has a probability of 1 on the first trial, and our 'failure' has a probability of 0 on the first trial. I.e. on the first trial we know that we have a success. , is the opposite of that, in that we know that our failure occurs on the first trial. Your 'success' will depending on how you define your transition matrix, i.e. the first entry in (1,1) will be the probability of what you define to be a success, given that a success has already occurred.
So in , we have our initial state . Now since Monday is , then Tuesday will be and Wednesday is , which is what we are interested in.

Hope that helps :)
So we think of the matrix as our initial, okay. So when it says that he had a sandwich for lunch on Monday, Pr(Sandwich on the initial day) = 1, and then after performing the calculation we read from either the Sandwich or Pasta bit of the final matrix.
I think that clears it up, I misunderstood these types of questions that 1 was a success and 0 was a failure for the nth day
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clıppy

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Re: VCE Methods Question Thread!
« Reply #2508 on: September 08, 2013, 07:41:53 pm »
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Another quick probability question.
In part b of this question, it changes from continuous to discrete. How do I calculate what it's asking for?
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Re: VCE Methods Question Thread!
« Reply #2509 on: September 08, 2013, 08:13:16 pm »
+1
Think about it this way, if the length is measured to the nearest cm, then how do we end up with 20 cm? We need to look at the range 19.5 cm to 20.5 cm. We can use 20.5 cm here because in our continuous distribution, we can't get the probability of a single value, rather we need the range of values. What I'm getting at is to include all the values that would round to 20, we need to include what is between 19.5 cm and 20.5 cm, this won't include either ends, even though 19.5 cm won't be included, by the continuous distribution the probability of a single value is 0. So we don't need to include 19.5 cm.

i.e. Find the probability using the continuous distribution for the range 19.5 cm to 20.5 cm, as this will give you the discrete probability when everything is rounded, of 20 cm.

Sorry if that wording is a bit mangled, kinda low on sleep/energy, and partly hyped up with red bull. If it doesn't make too much sense, maybe gp back to looking at the definitions of what discrete probability is, and what continuous probability is, and then look at how you're changing your view of the situation.

Hope that helps, and sorry that it's all over the place.
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clıppy

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Re: VCE Methods Question Thread!
« Reply #2510 on: September 08, 2013, 08:20:02 pm »
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Think about it this way, if the length is measured to the nearest cm, then how do we end up with 20 cm? We need to look at the range 19.5 cm to 20.5 cm. We can use 20.5 cm here because in our continuous distribution, we can't get the probability of a single value, rather we need the range of values. What I'm getting at is to include all the values that would round to 20, we need to include what is between 19.5 cm and 20.5 cm, this won't include either ends, even though 19.5 cm won't be included, by the continuous distribution the probability of a single value is 0. So we don't need to include 19.5 cm.

i.e. Find the probability using the continuous distribution for the range 19.5 cm to 20.5 cm, as this will give you the discrete probability when everything is rounded, of 20 cm.

Sorry if that wording is a bit mangled, kinda low on sleep/energy, and partly hyped up with red bull. If it doesn't make too much sense, maybe gp back to looking at the definitions of what discrete probability is, and what continuous probability is, and then look at how you're changing your view of the situation.

Hope that helps, and sorry that it's all over the place.
Nah it was perfectly clear, I just wasn't able to make the connection to look at all the values that would round to 20. Thanks b!
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TrueTears

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Re: VCE Methods Question Thread!
« Reply #2511 on: September 08, 2013, 09:06:00 pm »
+3
Since there's talk about discrete and continuous probability, I'm gonna go off on a tangent here for those that are interested: (quite advanced material, so don't worry if it makes zero sense, I'm just trying to provide some foresight)

In "classical" probability, everything is either "mass" (discrete) focused or "density" focused (continuous). Let's just review these 2 types of definitions.

Discrete: Assume we have a finite or infinitely countable set of outcomes denoted by , then for each , we assign a mass such that:

and

Continuous: If the sample space of a random variable is the set of all reals then the CDF is given by . is a continuous random variable with density if is an absolutely continuous function. Furthermore, is a monotonically non-decreasing, right-continuous function with the left limit as 0 and right limit as 1.



In fact we can go one step further and generalise both discrete and continuous distributions from a measure-theoretic point of view (using measure theory).

The main motivation behind new type of treatment of probability is this that not all distributions can be classified as discrete or continuous, they may be a mix of the two or neither (classic example is the Cantor Distribution). Another motivation is that relatively simple concepts such as independence become confusingly hard to define when we deal with vectors of random variables, to illustrate:

Let be a random n by 1 vector and be a random k by 1 vector (where n does not necessarily have to equal to k), then how do we define independence between and ?

For example, if we take just 2 random variables, X, Y then X and Y are independent iff f(x,y) = f(x)f(y) where f(x,y) characterizes their joint pdf and f(x), f(y) are their marginal pdfs. If we adapt this onto the random vector case, we have , examining the RHS, we see that is simply the joint distribution of and likewise, is the joint distribution of , but then what is ? How is it defined?

Continuing on, for a more special case, consider when is jointly multivariate normal, ie, and is also jointly multivariate normal, ie, . Now in the special case of when two jointly normally distributed variables X and Y, a sufficient condition for independence is when cov(X,Y) = 0 where cov(.) denotes the covariance between X and Y. How then, do we generalise that into the random vector case? We could use the "normal" definition of independence and say   and are independent iff . But then we would have to show and are jointly normally distributed... but this doesn't really make sense since and are already itself jointly normally distributed, so then we would be talking about the 'joint' distribution of two joint distributions... how do you make sense of that?



Measure theory seeks to generalise probability theory, the main set up goes like this:

We first must define what is exactly meant by a "probability space", intuitively we need a sample space, then subset of the sample space...ie, events, and finally a function of some sort that assignments probabilities to these events. Note, this is intrinsically different to the random variable world of probability which follows a progression of event -> random variable -> outcome -> probability function -> probability. Measure theory seeks to go back to the root (which is events) and follows a progression of sample space -> event -> probability function -> probability. Note: I'm being super informal here, but it's just to illustrate the basic intuition...

More formally, a probability space consists of three parts:

1.  A sample space (which is a set)
2.  A set of events denoted by .
3. Some function which assigns probability to events.

1. and 3. are perhaps "easy" to view and define, the problem resides in 2. In classical probability, 2. is characterised by random variables, in measure theory, we define something called a sigma-algebra (-algebra). I will simply provide the definitions of a sigma-algebra, however as you become more accustomed to measure theory, it will become very obvious why the axioms of a sigma-algebra are what they are. More precisely:

Let be some set, and let denote the power set (ie, set of all subsets). Then a subset is a sigma-algebra if it satisfies:
1. There is at least one .
2. If is in , then so is its complement.
3. If (note infinite) are in , then so is (note: again infinite)

2. and 3. are often called closed under complementation and countable unions (bears resemblance to definitions of subspace... for those that have done linear algebra)

We could also define something even more neat called a Borel sigma-algebra, I won't bother listing the axioms but for anyone that's interested: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Borel_algebra

Under the above definitions, we define the measure theoretic definition of the probability of a set X (from a sigma algebra, ) by:



where we say that the integral is with respect to a measure "induced" by the sigma algebra called . For anyone that's interested, we call this http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lebesgue_integration.

Anyhow, it turns out that the above formulation provides a sort of "unification" of discrete and continuous probability distributions, it is much more flexible and the treatment it provides allows us to define many things which were confusing (or not possible) under classical probability
« Last Edit: September 08, 2013, 09:09:11 pm by TrueTears »
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Re: VCE Methods Question Thread!
« Reply #2512 on: September 08, 2013, 11:34:11 pm »
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quick question :

two events A and B are such that Pr(A)=0.6, Pr(b)=0.1 and Pr(A|B)=0.1
calculate Prob. of at least one of the events occurring.

Please excuse me, im a rookie when it comes to probability.
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Re: VCE Methods Question Thread!
« Reply #2513 on: September 08, 2013, 11:45:55 pm »
+1
The probability that at least one of the events occur will be given by the probability of the union of the two events. As this will give the probability of when A occurs and B doesn't, when B occurs and A doesn't, and when both occurs.
Now we have our conditional probability formula

Substituting in the values.

That will give us the intersection of the two, but we need to union of the two, so we turn to our addition law of probability.

Substituting in the values.

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Re: VCE Methods Question Thread!
« Reply #2514 on: September 09, 2013, 12:00:47 am »
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The probability that at least one of the events occur will be given by the probability of the union of the two events. As this will give the probability of when A occurs and B doesn't, when B occurs and A doesn't, and when both occurs.
Now we have our conditional probability formula

Substituting in the values.

That will give us the intersection of the two, but we need to union of the two, so we turn to our addition law of probability.

Substituting in the values.


lol ive been getting this exact answer for the past 15min, but the back of the book says 0.64
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TrueTears

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Re: VCE Methods Question Thread!
« Reply #2515 on: September 09, 2013, 12:31:50 am »
+7
Trust mathematics, not back of book.
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Re: VCE Methods Question Thread!
« Reply #2516 on: September 09, 2013, 12:42:41 am »
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lol ive been getting this exact answer for the past 15min, but the back of the book says 0.64

You'll get the answer that BoB has if you have the probability of A and B switched. So check if you've written them down right, otherwise they might have just made a mistake in using the wrong one.
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lolipopper

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Re: VCE Methods Question Thread!
« Reply #2517 on: September 09, 2013, 11:27:00 am »
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You'll get the answer that BoB has if you have the probability of A and B switched. So check if you've written them down right, otherwise they might have just made a mistake in using the wrong one.

what i wrote was right. i guess bob is wrong.

Trust mathematics, not back of book.

i agree, but what to do when you dont absolutely know whats right/wrong.
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Re: VCE Methods Question Thread!
« Reply #2518 on: September 09, 2013, 01:39:50 pm »
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i agree, but what to do when you dont absolutely know whats right/wrong.

Eg ?
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Re: VCE Methods Question Thread!
« Reply #2519 on: September 09, 2013, 04:59:20 pm »
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Eg ?

i meant that i wasn't sure whether i was wrong or right. im bad at methods.
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