Login

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

June 29, 2025, 10:08:59 pm

Author Topic: ATAR/Study Score Prediction...compare to actual on 16th :D  (Read 43968 times)  Share 

0 Members and 2 Guests are viewing this topic.

pi

  • Honorary Moderator
  • Great Wonder of ATAR Notes
  • *******
  • Posts: 14348
  • Doctor.
  • Respect: +2376
Re: ATAR/Study Score Prediction...compare to actual on 16th :D
« Reply #90 on: December 09, 2011, 05:05:00 pm »
0
I also forgot that losing marks in exam 2 is alot worse than in exam 1.

Out of curiosity, why is this the case?

Shouldn't each mark for each paper weight the same?
(paper one is worth 22% and has half the marks of paper 2 which is 44%)

thushan

  • ATAR Notes Lecturer
  • Honorary Moderator
  • ATAR Notes Legend
  • *******
  • Posts: 4959
  • Respect: +626
Re: ATAR/Study Score Prediction...compare to actual on 16th :D
« Reply #91 on: December 09, 2011, 05:06:04 pm »
0
Each exam is marked through z-scores, so the 22%/44% argument is valid.
Managing Director  and Senior Content Developer - Decode Publishing (2020+)
http://www.decodeguides.com.au

Basic Physician Trainee - Monash Health (2019-)
Medical Intern - Alfred Hospital (2018)
MBBS (Hons.) - Monash Uni
BMedSci (Hons.) - Monash Uni

Former ATARNotes Lecturer for Chemistry, Biology

Jdog

  • Victorian
  • Forum Leader
  • ****
  • Posts: 846
  • Respect: +19
Re: ATAR/Study Score Prediction...compare to actual on 16th :D
« Reply #92 on: December 09, 2011, 05:06:59 pm »
0
I don't even know if I am correct in saying that.

ive just been told

stonecold

  • Victorian
  • Great Wonder of ATAR Notes
  • *******
  • Posts: 5335
  • Respect: +255
  • School Grad Year: 2010
Re: ATAR/Study Score Prediction...compare to actual on 16th :D
« Reply #93 on: December 09, 2011, 05:42:26 pm »
0
I said I wasn't going to do this, but now everyone has done it so I have to.

Chem
Exam 1 72.5/75 (statement of marks)
Exam 2 ~80/82
SS: 43-47

Bio
Exam 1 70/75  (statement of marks)
Exam 2 ~68/75
SS: 46-49

Methods
Exam 1 35/40
Exam 2 ~60/80
SS: 32-37

EngLang
SS: 36-42

English
SS 35-40

Not game enough to make exact predications, + I have no idea.  :P

ATAR 98.5 - 99.3  < could be way off, just a guesstimate!

Predicting it will end in zero though haha.

Good Luck Everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :D

I am sooooo scared lol.

FAIL!  Every prediction wrong...

Couldn't help myself. :P
2011-13: BBiomed (Microbiology & Immunology Major) @ UniMelb


VCE 2009'10: English 46 | English Language 49 | Chemistry 50 | Biology 50 | Further Mathematics 48 | Mathematical Methods CAS 39
ATAR: 99.85

"Failure is not when one falls down but rather when one fails to get up" - unknown

thushan

  • ATAR Notes Lecturer
  • Honorary Moderator
  • ATAR Notes Legend
  • *******
  • Posts: 4959
  • Respect: +626
Re: ATAR/Study Score Prediction...compare to actual on 16th :D
« Reply #94 on: December 09, 2011, 05:43:58 pm »
+1
That's where the idea for this thread came from.
Managing Director  and Senior Content Developer - Decode Publishing (2020+)
http://www.decodeguides.com.au

Basic Physician Trainee - Monash Health (2019-)
Medical Intern - Alfred Hospital (2018)
MBBS (Hons.) - Monash Uni
BMedSci (Hons.) - Monash Uni

Former ATARNotes Lecturer for Chemistry, Biology

paulsterio

  • ATAR Notes Legend
  • *******
  • Posts: 4803
  • I <3 2SHAN
  • Respect: +430
Re: ATAR/Study Score Prediction...compare to actual on 16th :D
« Reply #95 on: December 09, 2011, 05:45:30 pm »
0
The other thread got closed, it was really entertaining :(

Jdog

  • Victorian
  • Forum Leader
  • ****
  • Posts: 846
  • Respect: +19
Re: ATAR/Study Score Prediction...compare to actual on 16th :D
« Reply #96 on: December 09, 2011, 05:46:07 pm »
0
I said I wasn't going to do this, but now everyone has done it so I have to.

Chem
Exam 1 72.5/75 (statement of marks)
Exam 2 ~80/82
SS: 43-47

Bio
Exam 1 70/75  (statement of marks)
Exam 2 ~68/75
SS: 46-49

Methods
Exam 1 35/40
Exam 2 ~60/80
SS: 32-37

EngLang
SS: 36-42

English
SS 35-40

Not game enough to make exact predications, + I have no idea.  :P

ATAR 98.5 - 99.3  < could be way off, just a guesstimate!

Predicting it will end in zero though haha.

Good Luck Everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :D

I am sooooo scared lol.

FAIL!  Every prediction wrong...

Couldn't help myself. :P

mate, how did you underpredict english lang and english so much?

haha, i guess we all try to do it so we don't get dissapointed.

I know we all have our real hopes and predictions that we don't openly air

stonecold

  • Victorian
  • Great Wonder of ATAR Notes
  • *******
  • Posts: 5335
  • Respect: +255
  • School Grad Year: 2010
Re: ATAR/Study Score Prediction...compare to actual on 16th :D
« Reply #97 on: December 09, 2011, 05:48:17 pm »
0
@ JDog.  EngLang is impossible to know how well you  went in.

And as for the English exam...I kinda just 'rocked up' to that without doing any study so I wasn't expecting much haha.

I'm sure you will be fine dude.  Best of luck with Monash Med. :)
2011-13: BBiomed (Microbiology & Immunology Major) @ UniMelb


VCE 2009'10: English 46 | English Language 49 | Chemistry 50 | Biology 50 | Further Mathematics 48 | Mathematical Methods CAS 39
ATAR: 99.85

"Failure is not when one falls down but rather when one fails to get up" - unknown

Jdog

  • Victorian
  • Forum Leader
  • ****
  • Posts: 846
  • Respect: +19
Re: ATAR/Study Score Prediction...compare to actual on 16th :D
« Reply #98 on: December 09, 2011, 05:49:23 pm »
+2
fair enough,

yeah I hope all will be good, but I can't help but be a pessimist at times.

REBORN

  • Victorian
  • Part of the furniture
  • *****
  • Posts: 1226
  • Respect: +74
Doctor of Medicine

funkyducky

  • Victorian
  • Part of the furniture
  • *****
  • Posts: 1273
  • Respect: +64
  • School Grad Year: 2011
Re: ATAR/Study Score Prediction...compare to actual on 16th :D
« Reply #100 on: December 09, 2011, 05:56:05 pm »
0
JDog DY in 2009 (the chess freak) dropped 3 in exam 1 and got 50.
i know who you're talking about!!! AND I can confirm that he did indeed drop 3 marks in exam 1. His sister told me.
I won the GAT: 49/50/50.
Tutoring! Maths Methods (50), Specialist Maths (43), Chemistry (45)

thushan

  • ATAR Notes Lecturer
  • Honorary Moderator
  • ATAR Notes Legend
  • *******
  • Posts: 4959
  • Respect: +626
Re: ATAR/Study Score Prediction...compare to actual on 16th :D
« Reply #101 on: December 09, 2011, 06:09:55 pm »
0
His sister told me too!
Managing Director  and Senior Content Developer - Decode Publishing (2020+)
http://www.decodeguides.com.au

Basic Physician Trainee - Monash Health (2019-)
Medical Intern - Alfred Hospital (2018)
MBBS (Hons.) - Monash Uni
BMedSci (Hons.) - Monash Uni

Former ATARNotes Lecturer for Chemistry, Biology

nerdgasm

  • Victorian
  • Forum Obsessive
  • ***
  • Posts: 213
  • Respect: +73
Re: ATAR/Study Score Prediction...compare to actual on 16th :D
« Reply #102 on: December 09, 2011, 09:12:56 pm »
+2
JDog, Thushan and pi, for what it's worth, I think the reason why losing marks on Maths Exam 2 is worse than losing marks on Maths Exam 1 is because Exam 2 tends to be harder, thus reducing the standard deviation (why exactly, I'm not sure), so each mark lost is a greater portion of the standard deviations lost.

If the two exams were of equal difficulty, we might see something like this:

Exam 1, Mean = 20, SD = 10
Exam 2, Mean = 40, SD = 20.   

Now, each mark lost from Exam 1 is 0.1 of a SD, and each mark lost from Exam 2 is initially 0.05 of an SD. But Exam 2 is weighted double, so each mark lost turns out to be 0.1 of your final weighted score.

However, because Exam 2 is generally more difficult than Exam 1, we get something more like this:

Exam 1, Mean = 20, SD = 11
Exam 2, Mean = 40, SD = 18

So, each mark lost from Exam 1 is 1/11th of an SD, and each mark lost from Exam 2 is 1/18th of an SD, but is doubled to become 1/9th. Therefore, a person who gets 0/40 and 80/80 will do better than a person who gets 40/40 and 40/80. Note that in both these cases, the mean does not matter.

To give an actual example, I'll use my Methods scores from last year.
For Exam 1, I got 32/40, which was +0.95 SD's, multiplied by 0.22 (the weighting), to give 0.21
For Exam 2, I got 74/80, which was +1.78 SD's, multiplied by 0.44  to give 0.78. So, we'll say I have a final exam score of 0.99

Had I lost 6 more marks on Exam 1, and fullmarked Exam 2 (so still 14 marks lost in total), my final score would be around 0.22(0.42) + 0.44(2.10) = 1.017. Had I fullmarked Exam 1, and lost 8 more marks on Exam 2, my final score would be around 0.22(1.65) + 0.44(1.34) = 0.954.

Anyways, tl;dr, if you have to lose a certain number of marks, better to do it on an easier exam, where the standard deviation is higher (edited, I initially wrote lower), and each mark is worth 'less'.

Moderator action: removed real name, sorry for the inconvenience
« Last Edit: January 02, 2017, 06:02:55 pm by pi »

nerdgasm

  • Victorian
  • Forum Obsessive
  • ***
  • Posts: 213
  • Respect: +73
Re: ATAR/Study Score Prediction...compare to actual on 16th :D
« Reply #103 on: December 09, 2011, 09:19:39 pm »
0
I think so, yes.

taiga

  • Honorary Moderator
  • ATAR Notes Legend
  • *******
  • Posts: 4085
  • Respect: +588
Re: ATAR/Study Score Prediction...compare to actual on 16th :D
« Reply #104 on: December 09, 2011, 09:22:41 pm »
+5
YESS!!!! that increases my chances of my desired 50

Ww000Ttt
vce: english, methods, spesh, chemistry, physics, geography.

ex admin/mod/partner

2010: Melbourne High School (VCE)
2011 - 2016: Monash University BComm/BEng (Hons)


If you guys have any concerns/suggestions for making ATARNotes a better place, don't hesitate to PM me.