Realistic ATAR?

[cosine]

How realistic is a 97/98 ATAR with only 5 subjects in total, and not performing well in english. Am I living in a fantasy and expecting unrealistic things, because from what I have heard so far is that it's not possible, statistically. I mean, has it ever been done before?

[Selcouth]

Yes it probably has been done before.

Work hard, work consistently and work smart and you never know what might happen.

At the end of the day, work to the best of your ability and your score will be something you can be satisfied with.

[keltingmeith]

Statistically speaking, you're very unlikely to do get a 97/98 ATAR.

But you want to know something cool about statistics? It's never definite. Coming from a statistics major, I can only tell you with 95% certainty that you can't do it. Sure, I could alter my tests, and maybe I can change this to 99% certain - but I can never be 100% certain. No matter what I do, I can never tell you with 100% certainty that you can't do it.

This means that, statistically speaking, nothing is impossible. You just need to be the person who can prove that it IS possible.

[grannysmith]

Statistically speaking, you're very unlikely to do get a 97/98 ATAR.

But you want to know something cool about statistics? It's never definite. Coming from a statistics major, I can only tell you with 95% certainty that you can't do it. Sure, I could alter my tests, and maybe I can change this to 99% certain - but I can never be 100% certain. No matter what I do, I can never tell you with 100% certainty that you can't do it.

This means that, statistically speaking, nothing is impossible. You just need to be the person who can prove that it IS possible.

What a master.

[MDMA]

You shouldn't bother with these kinds of questions, there is really no solace in it and it can be done. I posted similar questions like 'can I still get a 40 in english' etc. with terrible SAC scores and whilst I was told no due to getting like 50% and 60% in SACS, it happened. You can do it √

[Special At Specialist]

Like EulerFan101 said, it's unlikely you'll get a 97/98 ATAR with a bad English score and only 5 subjects, but it's definitely still possible, many people have done it before and many people continue to do so. You'll just have to compensate by studying really hard smart for all your other subjects.

[spectroscopy]

how good are you at your other subjects?
and how bad is english?
these sort of things would need to be clarified to give a better estimation. my school had a fobby kid who came to australia like 4 years ago and didnt do too well (30 or 31) in esl but 45+d eco methods and physics and got low 40s spesh and ended up with mid 97s

best of luck with your pursuits!

[brenden]

Statistics in VCE are so fickle lol. I mean, without knowing anything about anyone, it's statistically likely for anyone to score over the average, if we want to get really technical. The higher you move up, the more ridiculous it is, until there's essentially 0% for anyone ever to get a 99 ATAR.

Now we start to add in facts that alter the statistics (because, keep in mind, we don't know anything about anyone).

Let's say someone went to a top five school in Victoria. Let's say they did Kumon since they were nine. Let's say they studied VCE independently when they were twelve. Now... how likely is it that they'll get above 90, assuming nothing terrible happens and they continue on their diligent path? It's almost a certainty, now.

So, sure, it's "unlikely" when we know nothing about anything that you can get 97 with 5 subjects. It's unlikely you could get 97 with 7 subjects. It's unlikely you could get 97 at all, simply because of what 97 means. But what happens we begin to introduce relevant facts? What happens when we consider that the pool of people who score 97 will be almost exclusively drawn from people who were aiming for 95+? How big is that population? It's small.

In reality, it's not all unlikely. It's not like getting 99.95 without Spec or a language, which is objectively almost impossible. Getting a 97 with five subjects isn't a matter of getting 50s for all subjects, which is objectively ridiculously unlikely. It's more a matter of like... 35 in English, 45 in Methods, 38 in Spec, 43 in Chem, 43 in Physics.

English: 35
Methods: 45
Spec: 38
Chem: 43
Physics: 43

Now, these are OBSCENELY high scores, bar English, but let's face it, it's not completely ridiculous for these scores to happen. They actually happen sort of frequently. So, of course it's been done before. It's done every year lol. Being statistically impossible, or even statistically highly unlikely is sort of wrong. For all we know it's almost a certainty (if we start to build relevant facts into the scenario). Stop worrying about it and just do your work. Good things will happen.

[heids]

Literally exactly the question I was asking last year.  I had 5 subjects, and not performing well in English (thinking 35ish SS).  Well... somehow hit 98.  So just try it on.

[JackSonSmith]

Dux of my school a few years back got <35 in English.

[cosine]

Thanks for the words, everyone, appreciate it.

(Still doubting I can do it though)

[brenden]

Thanks for the words, everyone, appreciate it.

(Still doubting I can do it though)

Doubts should't be relevant to your work. Just keep going.

[Redoxify]

When you say you doubt yourself, you limit yourself, it is like when you place crickets in a jar with a lid, eventually they believe that is there world and that they cannot get out, and so when the lid is removed, they can jump out but choose not too. Don't be a cricket and put a metaphorical lid with doubt,
just believe

[cosine]

When you say you doubt yourself, you limit yourself, it is like when you place crickets in a jar with a lid, eventually they believe that is there world and that they cannot get out, and so when the lid is removed, they can jump out but choose not too. Don't be a cricket and put a metaphorical lid with doubt,
just believe

I know what you are saying, but sometimes you have to think about being real and face what is actually going to happen - rather than what you would like to happen? Because disappointments are a part of life, and maybe too frequent with mine, haha

[keltingmeith]

I know what you are saying, but sometimes you have to think about being real and face what is actually going to happen - rather than what you would like to happen? Because disappointments are a part of life, and maybe too frequent with mine, haha

There's a difference between being realistic and being sceptic or pessimistic.

Nobody here has lied to you - the realism here is that you could still get those high marks, but you WON'T (this, I guarantee) if you continue to think you won't. You're not being realistic, you're being pessimistic - it's not facing reality if it's not true.