I imagine the best case would be around the 40 mark (a friend of mine who did FM last year dropped 5 marks on exam 1, aced exam 2, and got a 41), so I’d say 37-40. For the next hypothetical, I assume it would be mid to high 30s.
Hope this helps 
I don't think so, the best case scenario would very likely be around 42-45, 5 marks lost in both exams correlate to a study score point each from the 45-50 range. That would make him sit around 45, depending on how his sacs moderate, he would probably drop to a 42 maximum; given this year's exam 1 was a lot more difficult, the A+ cutoff would be lower too, so around 43 is my best guess. Worst case scenario would still sit around 40-42 since the 40-45 zone does not have the same competitiveness as it is for the higher end. Hope that helped!