Using Unit 1/2 results to predict ATAR

[cookiedream]

"people go from 50% --> 50raw others go from 99-100% --> less than 40raw"
How on earth are both of these snenarios even possible, especially the first one, don't year 12 subjects get a lot harder than their year 11 counterparts?

Both of these scenarios have somewhat happened for me.

Year 11 Chem: was getting around 70% and sometimes 80% in my tests. In the exam I got about 74% (my worst units 1/2 exam score)
Year 12 Chem: consistently got around 80% in SACs. Got 40 raw.

Year 11 Spesh: each of my tests throughout the year were around 70% (maybe a few 80%?). In the exam I got around 95% (my best units 1/2 exam score)
Year 12 Spesh: kept getting around 70% in my SACs (highest was 80%). Got 35 raw.

You can never really predict your Year 12 performance from your Year 11 marks. I know that when I got my Units 1/2 Spesh exam marks back, my Spesh teacher's expectations rose exponentially (haha get it? ) and they were saying things like how I'll definitely get a 40+ raw lol. All you can do is reflect on what you did in Year 11 (what you did right, what to improve on) and just work on that, so in Year 12 you'll do the best you can

[kalopsia]

So methods in year 12 is a lot harder than year 11 methods and to get a good study score in methods natural talent beats hard work?

I don't think that this was the point miniturtle was trying to make.

I must say that I know plenty of people who struggled in methods 3/4 even tho they aced 1/2. Methods is a tricky subject and in order to get a good study score in methods, it won't necessarily depend on your natural talent or how hard you work. It'll depend on how well you understand the concepts and can apply them.

Also, for me, chemistry was my best subject in year 11, and I did very well in sacs as well. It ended up being my worst subject. A lot of factors come into play and you can't simply predict your study score.

[natdogg]

"people go from 50% --> 50raw others go from 99-100% --> less than 40raw"

Can also confirm year 11 results cannot accurately indicate your potential result in year 12.

I got 6/10 for every single section in the year 11 English exam, realised I needed to put in a lot of effort to do better in year 12, and hey hey ended with a 48!

So don’t limit yourself by thinking that there’s no way to achieve a super high score based on what you used to score, no score is impossible to reach.

Also don’t get complacent about a subject just because you used to do really well in it
rip

[Bri MT]

So methods in year 12 is a lot harder than year 11 methods and to get a good study score in methods natural talent beats hard work?

Definitely not what I was trying to say.
 If I had worked more effectively and learnt from my mistakes more I would have seen a different result.

I’m happy to further discuss why I got the results I did - please pm me for this to avoid further derailing of this thread