COVID-19

[turinturambar]

Apart from being a new strain, is there anything different about this one to SARS? I mean, we got rid of that.

Absolutely.  SARS was somewhat more deadly, but less contagious, and in particular lacked the killer feature of Covid-19: Presymptomatic transmission.  As a result it was (I understand) much easier to track (temperature checks, for example, as well as contact tracing when case numbers were small), and we only know of a little over 8,000 cases worldwide.  Incidentally, MERS is another coronavirus that is further along that spectrum - more deadly, but harder to catch.

[K888]

Another aspect as well is that patients with SARS usually got quite a lot sicker earlier and were thus more likely to be isolated (think - we normally avoid sick people, right? and they're often too unwell to continue going out into the community) or in hospital. People with Covid-19 might only have mild symptoms (especially in the beginning, or even no symptoms at all) so are more likely to continue going around in the community while infectious and thus potentially spread it to more people.

I'd definitely recommend reading scientific journals and information from reputable websites though to get more information, and not just take whatever is said on AN as fact.

[eloisegrace]

331 cases and 19 more deaths. I believe that cases are starting to stabilise and hopefully we have passed the worst peak of this wave (and hopefully all together tbh). While the death number is high and tragic for those who passed's love ones, these deaths are from cases where the state was at a higher peak of cases. Hopefully the next 6 weeks of stage 4 restrictions are enough to lower the cases to a point where no community transmission is occurring (or very little) so we can start moving back into a more normal life (but what is normal these days )

i know i have made a few speculations and i could be wrong for all i know but i am basing this of the 7 day average trends and the time since lockdown and masks have been enforced

[Sine]

Re: New Zealand

I feel like it is less about the new cases and the way that they respond (e.g. going straight back into lockdown for Auckland). It was always a possibility it would come back to NZ given they were still bringing in return travellers and imports. However, being 3 months COVID-19 free and going back into lockdown is better than giving up and letting the virus spread.

Some people use the term eradication poorly but I think they mean no community transmission which is fair and what we should aim for in Australia.

[keltingmeith]

In other news, Russia supposedly has a vaccine for COVID-19.

I want to be very clear on this - while the idea sounds hopeful, there's a lot of reasons to think this is not the vaccine that will save us. I've very specifically chosen that article to link the information here, because the title itself already identifies an issue with the vaccine - they skipped important human trials, and only did testing on less than 200 people - that's a really, really, REALLY small amount for medical research. The current plan is to effectively use the entire Russian populace as their stage 3 testing, which is testing to make sure that the vaccine is effective across a wide group of people and to check for any disadvantageous side-effects.

Tbh, normally I wouldn't spread this information, but I'm putting it here so that I can warn people not to be hopeful - because I imagine this information will be doing the rounds nearly everywhere soon enough.

[turinturambar]

I'll just note that in the last few weeks there have been reports of a security guard in a NZ quarantine hotel getting Covid-19, and two security guards at NSW quarantine hotels getting Covid-19.  One of the security guards in NSW who tested positive was also fined a couple of times for breaching self-isolation orders.

This is why I've repeatedly questioned whether elimination (rather than aggressive suppression) is even possible.  It is not acceptable to keep people out who have a right to be in Australia (I'm already not happy with the limits on number of people returning and with how people on temporary visas have been treated).  And no quarantine system, no matter how carefully run, is ever going to be 100% perfect.    Maybe our quarantine system in Victoria was worse than others - I haven't been keeping up with the inquiry too closely, though it sounds like some bad stories have been coming out - but I believe most or all of our cases originally trace back to one or two quarantine breaches, and we know of multiple quarantine breaches in other jurisdictions.  Maybe we handled those worse, or maybe we just got unlucky.

But to me the more concerning thing is how the contact tracing etc. worked after the breach, because NSW's experience - difficult, but just about keeping on top of numbers - is much more how I expected Victoria's to go.

[K888]

But to me the more concerning thing is how the contact tracing etc. worked after the breach, because NSW's experience - difficult, but just about keeping on top of numbers - is much more how I expected Victoria's to go.

This reflects the capacity and structure of the respective health departments imo. NSW and VIC have differently structured departments and health systems.
I also think NSW have had the benefit of seeing the second wave in VIC and realising they needed to pre-emptively boost their contact tracing teams, whereas in VIC it's all been reactive to the situation. In VIC I don't think we've been helped by complacency from how we managed the first wave - we just assumed what we were doing would be fine for the second wave, which hasn't been the case.

[Sine]

Everyone will probably be hearing about this everywhere today. Australia is "officially" in recession, for the first time in nearly 30 years, following a 0.3% drop in GDP in the March quarter and a 7% drop in GDP for the June quarter.

Obviously, none of this is unexpected but it probably should also be noted Australia was in a per capita recession around 2018/2019.

Any thoughts on this?

Posting in this thread for now but may split later if necessary.

[turinturambar]

Everyone will probably be hearing about this everywhere today. Australia is "officially" in recession, for the first time in nearly 30 years, following a 0.3% drop in GDP in the March quarter and a 7% drop in GDP for the June quarter.

Obviously, none of this is unexpected but it probably should also be noted Australia was in a per capita recession around 2018/2019.

It's also worth noting that we were expecting a GDP drop in the March quarter as a result of the summer bush-fires before Covid-19 really hit Australia.  If anything, the early panic buying of toilet paper and other such essentials reduced the March quarter drop, and IIRC in a "normal" year March quarter might have dropped more, but June quarter probably a lot less.

At least we got our government surplus this year, because that's all that counts, right?
What's that?  We didn't get it?  Are all the sacrifices going to be for nothing?

[eloisegrace]

Dan Andrews is speaking at midday with a proposed roadmap for Victorians. Any guesses as to what this will be?

[Sine]

Dan Andrews is speaking at midday with a proposed roadmap for Victorians. Any guesses as to what this will be?

Roadmap has been released now
https://www.vic.gov.au/coronavirus-covid-19-restrictions-roadmap-metro-melbourne?fbclid=IwAR2w54dqIxmvialnruAS2hT-V35dLtNBRHgr26R4mhQB52LlNHivtNV6CZE

Looks like they have opted for case average AND time trigger points to move through the stages of "reopening".


What are everyone's thoughts on this?

[J_Rho]

I think case averages are good in the sense that the community knows exactly when thigns will happen and perhaps do more and play their part in really trying to acheive those numbers

[Sine]

Great to see that the numbers are going down in Victoria but there is still a long way to go so hopefully we don't get complacent.

The government suggested they will be easing restrictions on Sunday (and possibly be more relaxed than anticipated in the "roadmap").

What changes, if any, outside the normal "roadmap" would everyone like to see?

[The Cat In The Hat]

Great to see that the numbers are going down in Victoria but there is still a long way to go so hopefully we don't get complacent.

The government suggested they will be easing restrictions on Sunday (and possibly be more relaxed than anticipated in the "roadmap").

What changes, if any, outside the normal "roadmap" would everyone like to see?

I want to be able to see my immediate family. I understand reasoning as to why they wouldn't allow family gatherings, but still.

[Coolgalbornin03Lo]

What changes, if any, outside the normal "roadmap" would everyone like to see?

5km bubble removed so my mum can get something from the shops for me! (It’s not essential). other than that I don’t really care, people are overrated  except on zoom you can shut the laptop lid if there’s a conversation and you don’t feel like it lol