WTF THATS BS.
What if you get 100% in the exam, and you're ranked last (but you got 95% on sacs
), but this kid whose smart in sacs (100%) choked on the exam and scored 50%, does that mean you'll get 100% for exam and 50% for SACS?!?!?!?!
so instead of A+ A+ A+ you'll get D D A+ ?
WTFFFF thats screwed. that can't be right.
it wouldnt be THAT extreme.
statistical moderation assumes that your ranking within your school assessment should be similar to your ranking within your school in the statewide exam, which is fair enough.
but statistical moderation isnt exactly to the exam score. your moderated SACs will approximate the ranking exam score, as the performance of students ideally fit in a bell curve, that is why your cohort needs to be large enough or be merged with another school. the result of the moderation process at the end, however, resembles your sac->exam score model, but the actual workings are not rigid, and allows for anomalies.
In this extreme case, apple, your 95% SACs being the ranking last in the cohort means its a very strong cohort, and they wouldnt moderate it down THAT low. Instead, you're exam result will actually aid that SAC ranking 1st person to get a derived exam score (there gotta be a reason to explain this bombing out).