Probability

[Tea.bag]

DOnt get it.

It is known in a certain town that on any evening 35% of people will not be at home. What is the probability that a telemarketer will need to make five phone calls before finding someone at home on the sixth call?

[Collin Li]

We want this sequence of events:

FFFFFS,

where F = fail, S = success

[bucket]

tree diagrams help heaps with these things.

[excal]

tree diagrams help heaps with these things.

Yeah, but you don't *need* them unless you're dealing with Markov chains (that is, where the posterior probabilities are different depending on the prior probabilities).

As coblin decuded, for independent events F and S,

[Collin Li]

Hehe, probably don't want to draw a 5-step tree diagram:

branches

[excal]

Hehe, probably don't want to draw a 5-step tree diagram:

branches

Well...there's that too

[bucket]

you only need the initial and the transition part lol.