Crisis on Wall Street: Lehman to file for bankruptcy protection, Merrill Is Sold

[brendan]

[Noblesse]

So the ASX shot up today, but most likely it will just drop more later :/

The benchmark S&P/ASX200 jumped to 4142.3, while the broader All Ordinaries rose 3.9 per cent, higher at 4098.7.

http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,24524448-31037,00.html

Any predictions for the Dow Jones? Up or down?

[AppleXY]

Yeah, it was weird to see how the market reacts.

Need true technical analysis to see short-term movements and predictions of what could occur (for Dow Jones (for your question)  but generally applies any trading instrument).

[Collin Li]

Stop buying the crap you get told in financial magazines:

Technical analysis is widely used among traders and financial professionals, but is considered in academia to be pseudoscience.[2] Academics such as Eugene Fama say the evidence for technical analysis is sparse and is inconsistent with the weak form of the generally-accepted efficient market hypothesis.[3][4] Economist Burton Malkiel argues, "Technical analysis is an anathema to the academic world." He further argues that under the weak form of the efficient market hypothesis, "...you cannot predict future stock prices from past stock prices."[5]

Tutors and lecturers from the Finance department of University of Melbourne shun technical analysis. It's bullshit.

You need fundamental analysis.

[costargh]

lol fiesty coblin!

[brendan]

wait a minute why would "Technical analysis" be so widely used by those with their own money on the line, if it didn't yield some results.

[Collin Li]

wait a minute why would "Technical analysis" be so widely used by those with their own money on the line, if it didn't yield some results.

Because as long as other people are conned into using it, it works for a few at the top to propagate these lies. If you've bought some shares, and you tell everyone else to, then you're going to make profits.

It can be rational to follow irrational investors.

[Noblesse]

Well if you had voted "Up" then you win Though I wouldn't be surprised if it drops double tomorrow -_-

The Dow Jones jumped 413.21 points, or 4.67 per cent, to 9,265.43, while the S&P500 climbed 44.85 points, or 4.77 per cent, to 985.40. The Nasdaq shot up 58.74 points, or 3.43 per cent, at 1770.03.

http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,24528791-31037,00.html

[bubble sunglasses]

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/oct/21/economy-green-politics
  "What can be done about political short-termism? With the environmental thinker Matthew Prescott, I've hatched what might be a partial solution. We propose a new parliamentary body - the 100-year committee - whose purpose would be to assess the likely impacts of current policy in 10, 20, 50 and 100 years' time. Like any other select committee, it would gather evidence, publish reports and make recommendations to the government. It would differ only in that it had no interest in the current political cycle. Its maximum timeframe would be roughly the residence time of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

The members of this committee would not be equipped with crystal balls but they would be released from the need to balance the interests of the present against a heavily discounted future. Their purpose would be to provide a voice for those who have not yet been enfranchised. A 100-year committee could not insure us against political stupidity, but it would deprive governments of the excuse that they couldn't see trouble coming."

[Noblesse]

Another good day for the ASX

THE sharemarket closed almost 4 per cent higher for the second consecutive day as markets rebounded on signs the global credit crunch may be easing.

At the 4.15pm (AEDT) close, the benchmark S&P/ASX200 was up 160.2 points,  at 4302.5, while the broader All Ordinaries added 152.7 points, to 4251.4.

http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,24530724-2,00.html

So I'll ask again, any bets for Wall Street? Up or down?

[brendan]

I think its more of a case of statistical arbitrage. The reason why you shouldn't do it is because there are hundreds if not thousands of other highly trained highly resourced and highly paid professionals looking for statistical arbitrage opportunities. It's highly unlikely that you will spot the opportunity before they do.

[Noblesse]

Bah if you voted 'Down' you win -_-

The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 239.26 points or 2.58 per cent to 9026.17 at the closing bell and the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite dropped 73.65 points or 4.16 per cent to 1696.38.

http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,24534545-462,00.html

Sigh. Any predictions for the ASX today? Will it follow?

[AppleXY]

lol Jamison. Is this your closing bell market commentary

(lol ASX went down... up) lol. Niiccee

[Noblesse]

lol Jamison. Is this your closing bell market commentary

(lol ASX went down... up) lol. Niiccee

Hehe, yeah I'm using my superior skill of predicting - we follow America -_-

(psst, it also gets my postcount up )

[brendan]

Derivatives and Mass Financial Destruction
By DARRELL DUFFIE
Mr. Duffie is a professor of finance at Stanford University's Graduate School of Business.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122463222894556573.html

Lessons from Tokyo
By HEIZO TAKENAKA
Mr. Takenaka is director of the Global Security Research Institute at Keio University and was formerly Minister of Economics, Minister of Financial Reform and Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications under Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122462152605355599.html