Hey guys,
Can someone please help predict what I might be able to achieve for Methods as well?
40/40 for Exam 1
76-75/80 for Exam 2
Rank 1 or 2 at private school.
Given that you're rank 1 or 2, your SAC score is likely to be either roughly the same or higher than your exam score - depending on whether anyone else in your school did better than you on the exam. Anyway as you've probably already seen TWM would predict you to get around 48 raw (if you take 1/3 of the predicted SS for exam 1 and add it to 2/3 of the predicted SS for exam 2).
If you use last year's grade distribution for exam 2 you're ~1.9 standard deviations above the mean; equating that to a study score would give you ~43.3 from exam 2. If you weight that against a 50 for exam 1 again you would still be looking at ~45-46. But that does seem like a bit of an underestimate, especially considering there's speculation that this year's exams were harder - but I'm not sure how accurate that is. And of course if your (moderated) SAC score ends up being higher than your exam 2 score, that could bump up your study score again. Anyway hopefully that helps.
Edit: I should note that with this method I'm assuming that exam scores are normally distributed - which could cause some issues. Another possible method is to look at the % of students in the exam who would normally score lower than a given letter grade, but of course that doesn't account for differences within the letter grade. I believe others have a method of doing so, but I don't know the details of it.
Edit 2: In fact all estimates using the SD and mean of the grade distributions, at high scores, will be underestimates due to the fact that scores are restricted by the amount of marks available in each exam.