Study Score Prediction Question Thread

[The Cat In The Hat]

Methods-
SACs - average to weak cohort, probably ranked second or something out of nine, average SACs around 75% (80% first SAC, #3, then 71%, equal #1).
E1 - probably around 50%
E2 - also assume around 50%

[FlaminGala]

Hi! Could somebody please predict my study score for Methods.

SACs - 95% (Rank 1 in an average cohort)
E1 - 34/40
E2 - 70-74/80

Thank you!

[Ericyh]

Hey guys,

Can someone please help predict what I might be able to achieve for Methods as well?
40/40 for Exam 1
76-75/80 for Exam 2
Rank 1 or 2 at private school.

For people who are interested I also found this conversion chart:
https://twmpublications.com/statistics
But I don't think its accurate because I know people who don't fit the prediction.

Thanks!

[vce2020]

Hey guys,

Can someone please help predict what I might be able to achieve for Methods as well?
40/40 for Exam 1
76-75/80 for Exam 2
Rank 1 or 2 at private school.

Given that you're rank 1 or 2, your SAC score is likely to be either roughly the same or higher than your exam score - depending on whether anyone else in your school did better than you on the exam. Anyway as you've probably already seen TWM would predict you to get around 48 raw (if you take 1/3 of the predicted SS for exam 1 and add it to 2/3 of the predicted SS for exam 2).

If you use last year's grade distribution for exam 2 you're ~1.9 standard deviations above the mean; equating that to a study score would give you ~43.3 from exam 2. If you weight that against a 50 for exam 1 again you would still be looking at ~45-46. But that does seem like a bit of an underestimate, especially considering there's speculation that this year's exams were harder - but I'm not sure how accurate that is. And of course if your (moderated) SAC score ends up being higher than your exam 2 score, that could bump up your study score again. Anyway hopefully that helps.

Edit: I should note that with this method I'm assuming that exam scores are normally distributed - which could cause some issues. Another possible method is to look at the % of students in the exam who would normally score lower than a given letter grade, but of course that doesn't account for differences within the letter grade. I believe others have a method of doing so, but I don't know the details of it.

Edit 2: In fact all estimates using the SD and mean of the grade distributions, at high scores, will be underestimates due to the fact that scores are restricted by the amount of marks available in each exam.

[scientificllama]

Hi, can someone pls predict what I can get for methods?

GA 1: 70% (rank ~ 80/170)
GA 2: 60% 
GA 3: 70% 

go to a select entry school. Thanks in advance!

Probably somewhere around a 33-35; however, given the competitiveness at a selective school and a  strong cohort, a 36-39 is possible.

[scientificllama]

Methods-
SACs - average to weak cohort, probably ranked second or something out of nine, average SACs around 75% (80% first SAC, #3, then 71%, equal #1).
E1 - probably around 50%
E2 - also assume around 50%

Probably around a 30-33 ss

[scientificllama]

Hey guys

Just a reminder for those wanting to know their predicted study score, please ensure you add in the following:

- SAC score average for units 3 & 4; however, subjects with a combined score such as methods only need the one

- Cohort strength

- Rank (if possible)

This helps make the predictions are bit more precise and easier to calculate.

Thanks!

[The Cat In The Hat]

Texts and Traditions (total 19 students in cohort):
U3- ranked possibly first or second in a strong top band, SACs averaging around high B's/A's (we only get letter grades, but A is from I think 25-30/30, B from 20-25, or something like that)
U4- ranked somewhere in the top five, SACs averaging around A's/A+'s
Exam- topped (I think) trial exam with 86%; assume real exam ~85%.
EDIT: teacher also said we're an unusually strong cohort at the trial exam; we were an average to strong cohort but he expects us to perform strongly in the exam.
Do I have a chance at a 40?

[scientificllama]

Texts and Traditions (total 19 students in cohort):
U3- ranked possibly first or second in a strong top band, SACs averaging around high B's/A's (we only get letter grades, but A is from I think 25-30/30, B from 20-25, or something like that)
U4- ranked somewhere in the top five, SACs averaging around A's/A+'s
Exam- topped (I think) trial exam with 86%; assume real exam ~85%.
EDIT: teacher also said we're an unusually strong cohort at the trial exam; we were an average to strong cohort but he expects us to perform strongly in the exam.
Do I have a chance at a 40?

Hey there again

So assuming that your unit 3 SAC percentage is 83% (an A) and your unit 4 is about 88% (A+), according to last year's statistics would get you around a 37-39. However,  given this year, it's possible to get a 40 depending on how the state has performed

[The Cat In The Hat]

Hey there again

So assuming that your unit 3 SAC percentage is 83% (an A) and your unit 4 is about 88% (A+), according to last year's statistics would get you around a 37-39. However,  given this year, it's possible to get a 40 depending on how the state has performed

OK, thanks! - Guess I better keep studying, then!

[schoolstudent115]

Is 45+ achievable? What is a reasonable range of study score for this (Physics)

GA1: 94% (class avg. about 60%, maybe high 50’s as the sacs were quite difficult) (at worst top 3, but much more likely top 1/2).
GA2: 100% (class avg. about 64%) (no one else got 100)
GA3 (exam) ~ 97% (126-127/130)

Cohort Strength: Moderate
I posted this a while back, but realised the figures were off a bit, and this one has more accurate numbers (e.g. percentages instead of Grade letter)

[scientificllama]

Hey there

According to last years results, it's most likely you would receive somewhere between a 42-45.
However, with how this year has gone, you might be able to reach a 47.

Also, congrats on those amazing scores!🥳

[nikki730]

Could someone predict mine for methods please :p
Unit 3: 94%
Unit 4: 100%
Rank 1 in strong cohort

Exam 1: 38/40
Exam 2: 76/80

[Sine]

Hello! Could you please predict mine for methods?

Unit 3: 87% (rank 3/4 out of 55)
Unit 4: 79% (unsure of rank but probably top 10-15)

Exam 1: 24/40 (eeeeek)
Exam 2: 61/80 (also eeek)

Cohort strength: Average - high (teachers tell us we're high but I'm not so sure...)

Also: if you have any advice on how to stop freaking out about how I flunked the methods exams I'd love to hear it hehehe. Does anyone have a rough estimate for the average range of either exam?

Mid-30s. Your exam 1 mark is probably on the lower side of 35 and your exam 2 is on the higher side slightly.

Could someone predict mine for methods please :p
Unit 3: 94%
Unit 4: 100%
Rank 1 in strong cohort

Exam 1: 38/40
Exam 2: 76/80

45-48 depends on how hard the top-end found the exam

[99.95_goal]

Hi everyone,
Can some please give me some ss predictions for the following subjects?
English
SACs: 80% in selective school
Exam: around 80-85

Methods:
SACs: rank 1-2 in a selective school ( we don't get percentages)
Exam 1: 33/40
Exam 2: 70/80

Spesh:
SACs: high ranking (only did one this year so probs gonna be replaced by GAT)
Exam 1:36/40
Exam 2: 66/80

Thank you!