Question 1
Military resources alone will not enable a nation state to achieve all of its goals in its relationships with other nation states.
Discuss with reference to one or more international relationship or situation within the Asia-Pacific region.
China has used an array of power instruments within its relationship with Taiwan, there have however, been rare occurrences when military power has been used in isolation and has stymied China’s ability to achieve all her national interests simultaneously. These national interests can broadly be defined as Hu Jintao’s ‘three harmonies’; harmony within China, harmony with and peace with the world and unification with Taiwan. As such, military power, as a ‘one dimensional’ form of power, only serves to preserve and promote superficial short term territorial integrity.
In 1996, China’s use of military power demonstrated the flaws of military power as a means of securing her national interests. China firing missiles into the Taiwanese strait, in an attempt to influence the Taiwanese electorate into voting for the Pan-Blue KMT party, in this instance, military power was executed in isolation and successfully served China’s short term territorial needs as the KMT party was elected. This being said, it created a long term rift between Taiwan and China, which contributed to the pro independence party being elected in the 2000 elections, despite China’s use of ‘sabre rattling’. Moreover, this upset diplomatic ties with the US, the US sending their seventh fleet to protect Taiwan as per their international obligations. The BBC commenting that ‘a war in the Taiwanese strait would destroy China’s international standing overnight’ evidently detrimental to the achievement of improved international standing, hence demonstrating the inability of military power to secure both China’s international standings and ‘One China’ policies.
In more recent times, China has demonstrated that military resources can successfully be implemented, so long as they are used in conjunction with a series of forms of power. China has begun, what some commentators call ‘flexing its muscles’. This is a less direct form of military power, which involves China combining its ‘Propaganda’ with military expenditure, highlighting its increased spending on military (which now sits at 4.3% of GDP, up 63B). Using its monopoly on media, rating 162 out of 168 on the freedom of media index to exemplify its purchase of a new air craft carrier, its newspapers highlighting the strategic advantage of such weaponry, enabling China to attack Taiwan from a multitude of locations. This combined with the widely published RAND think tank report stated that China could occupy Taiwan before US intervention has entrenched fear in the Taiwanese, minimising the likelihood of secession. It has also demonstrated to the world that China’s military capabilities put it on the cusp of superpower status evidently enhancing its international clout, without threatening its international standings. Evidently, the use of military power in conjunction with propaganda tools has proved successful, demonstrating that, whilst military resources alone will not enable a state to secure her interests when successfully utilised in conjunction with other tools it increases its effectiveness.
China has begun using economic instruments in order to further its longer term objectives, this is because, military power, serves mainly as a tool designed to serve short term ends. China has successfully created an inextricably interlinked trading relationship with Taiwan, which has made Taiwan so dependent on China that, the likelihood of secession has diminished. In 2010, the Economic Frame Work Agreement came into place, establishing freer trading conditions between Taiwan and China with over tariffs on over 500 goods cut. This increased Taiwanese exports by 17 billion dollars and has meant that over 33% of Taiwanese exports go to China. As such, this has favourably contributed to growth, per capita income in Taiwan increasing 2,000 dollars to 33,000 since 2010. The Taiwanese acknowledge that China has been a driving force behind these increased material living standards, the Taiwanese being internationally acknowledged as ‘One of the Four Asian Tigers’. This increased growth, has led to a shifting view in the Taiwanese electorate, one that is in favour of strong Taipei-Sino relations. This was demonstrated and the 2008 elections, the KMT (pro unification party) winning the election on a party platform of ‘three no’s’; no independence, no unification, no conflict’. Accordingly, the DPP party has toned down its pro independence rhetoric to accommodate the electorates changing view ‘caving into domestic pressure’ and favouring the ‘status quo’. Evidently, the use of softer forms of power has proved to enhance longer term national interests, economic power contributing to a shift in political culture which has taken many years to take place. It has also facilitated and created more favourable conditionings for Hu Jintao’s ‘harmonious society’ doctrine as well as furthering China’s growth and preserving its international standings. This highlights, that military power alone cannot secure China’s objectives simultaneously and nor can it promote longer term stability. Hence, China has sought to use other forms of power in order to facilitate the achievement of these key objectives which cannot be secured by military power alone.
China has successfully utilised its ‘aid for oil’ program as a multifaceted tool which has facilitated the achievement of economic development and territorial integrity simultaneously. China has seen growth rates of 8-10% for the past decade. This has largely been on the back of a strong manufacturing industry, as such, China is reliant on raw materials in order to ‘feed the Chinese dragon’ or it is doomed for failure. The international energy agency predicting that China’s oil consumption will rise by 150% by 2020. As such, China has adapted a ‘two pronged’ approach to dealing with this issue. Firstly, it has funded exploration in African states as well as purchased stakes in oil rigs and other mines and secondly, it has provided aid or ‘soft loans’ to African states in return for oil. China providing Sudan with 20B in soft loans (to 2010) and giving Angola 2 billion dollars to win last minute oil contract from Shell. As such, China now consumes 60% of Sudan’s oil becoming the continents second largest trading partner. This has made China a major player in the region, who now has significant influence as the result of its trading instruments; as such it has significant sway over how Africa votes in the United Nations General Assembly (Africa possessing 53 votes). Hence, when Taiwan’s application to the UN in 2007 reached the general assembly it was doomed to fail the UN formally ruling in accordance to China’s ‘One China’ policy. As such, it has been demonstrated that economic power in this instance has been used as both a tool of diplomacy, furthering China’s economic development objectives and facilitating the states ongoing survival, something that military power alone would be unable to secure without a full scale war. This is not to say that China’s ‘aid for oil’ program is not without its criticism, international bodies, such as the Human Rights Watch blaming China for the Darfur genocide, it being predicted that 80% of their oil revenue goes straight to the Junta.
Overall it can be seen that military power is most effective when used to achieve short term ends that is because, the effects of military power can be seen instantaneously. This being said, military power, is most effective when used in conjunction with other forms of power. Never the less, military power is unable to secure more long term objectives, such as a harmonious society. Which military power only seeks to artificially achieve. As such, China has employed a series of softer forms of power which are designed with the intent of achieving and preserving more long term goals such as economic development, longer term cross trait relations without harming their harmonious society and international standings interests.