The probability of Vanessa's car starting on a cold morning is 0.6, while on a normal morning the chance of it starting is 0.9. The probability of any morning being a cold one is 0.3. If Vanessa's car starts tomorrow morning, find the probability that the morning is cold
I am not even sure how to approach this one
Any help is much appreciated
edit: haha wrote the ending for another question. LOL...moral: get enough sleep
Thanks AN 
Okay, here's the full solution now that I know what you're being asked.
You want to find
)
. Now, we know that this is equal to
}{\mathbb{P}(C)})
, and we can turn that top part into
\mathbb{P}(M))
. From this, we have the following formula:
=\frac{\mathbb{P}(C|M)\mathbb{P}(M)}{\mathbb{P}(C)})
This is actually a famous formula called Baye's rule - feel free to look it up. It's not explicitly mentioned in the study design (neither is the total probability theorem to memory, but I think there's an informal treatment of it in there [or the new study design, at least]), however it could certainly come up if the question leads you into it.