Study Score Prediction Question Thread

[Rod]

Physics: selective school cohort, ranking in the middle range
Sacs: (Before scaling - How do we know the amount these scale by?)
U3: 78%
U4: 86% ish
Exam: 128/150

About 41-42

[Rod]

Physics: selective school cohort, ranking in the middle range
Sacs: (Before scaling - How do we know the amount these scale by?)
U3: 78%
U4: 86% ish
Exam: 128/150

As for scaling, you don't know. You'll find out after the exams after they take a look at your cohorts GAT scores and overall performance in the exams .

[strawberries]

What does getting three A's of a LOTE equal to (e.g. German)? (with the SAC marks being scaled to an A)
I heard the scaling's a bit lower/different for LOTEs cos even three A+'s can't guarantee a 40 or something, right?

[biy]

Biology:

Rank: 1
Cohort: Really weak
SAC Average Unit 3: 90% (Low A+)
SAC Average Unit 4: 95% (Mid A+)
Exam score: 95/110.

Methods:

Rank 2
Cohort: Weak/Average
GA1: 94% (Mid A+)
GA2: 37/40
GA3: 75/80

Specialist:

Rank 1
Cohort: Weak/Average
GA1: 90% (Low A+)
GA2: 36/40
GA3: 70/80

English:

Rank: top 10
Cohort: Weak
SAC Average Unit 3: 75% (B+)
SAC Average Unit 4: 80% (Low A)
Exam score: 7/10 Section A, 6/10 Section B and 8/10 Section C

Thanks guys <3

[Splash-Tackle-Flail]

What does getting three A's of a LOTE equal to (e.g. German)? (with the SAC marks being scaled to an A)
I heard the scaling's a bit lower/different for LOTEs cos even three A+'s can't guarantee a 40 or something, right?

I'm terrible at predictions but from looking at the grade distributions of LOTEs in general there is a real negative skew in the scores for Lote subjects, because so many people are crowded around A-A+ range (probably cause so many are fluent, and that in general more academically sided people would be more likely to do a LOTE), so yeah three A+s doesn't really guarantee anything.

[appleandbee]

Biology:

Rank: 1
Cohort: Really weak
SAC Average Unit 3: 90% (Low A+)
SAC Average Unit 4: 95% (Mid A+)
Exam score: 95/110.

Methods:

Rank 2
Cohort: Weak/Average
GA1: 94% (Mid A+)
GA2: 37/40
GA3: 75/80

Specialist:

Rank 1
Cohort: Weak/Average
GA1: 90% (Low A+)
GA2: 36/40
GA3: 70/80

English:

Rank: top 10
Cohort: Weak
SAC Average Unit 3: 75% (B+)
SAC Average Unit 4: 80% (Low A)
Exam score: 7/10 Section A, 6/10 Section B and 8/10 Section C

Thanks guys <3

Biology: 38-41 (varies depending on exam difficulty)
Methods: 43-46
Specialist: 36-38
English: 36-38

[Rod]

Biology:

Rank: 1
Cohort: Really weak
SAC Average Unit 3: 90% (Low A+)
SAC Average Unit 4: 95% (Mid A+)
Exam score: 95/110.

Methods:

Rank 2
Cohort: Weak/Average
GA1: 94% (Mid A+)
GA2: 37/40
GA3: 75/80

Specialist:

Rank 1
Cohort: Weak/Average
GA1: 90% (Low A+)
GA2: 36/40
GA3: 70/80

English:

Rank: top 10
Cohort: Weak
SAC Average Unit 3: 75% (B+)
SAC Average Unit 4: 80% (Low A)
Exam score: 7/10 Section A, 6/10 Section B and 8/10 Section C

Thanks guys <3

Biology -> 40-41
English -> About 35

Not too sure about maths. But for methods, surely losing only 8 marks will get you at least a 45...

[appleandbee]

Biology -> 40-41
English -> About 35

Not too sure about maths. But for methods, surely losing only 8 marks will get you at least a 45...

Depends on the difficulty of the exam, if it’s on the easier end 43-44 sounds reasonable (maybe 45) judging from friends that scored in the high 40s. It’s also not just about the total marks lost; it’s about the number of marks lost in each exam, as exam 2 has a higher weighting than exam one.

[biy]

Thanks guys

But how come Specialist is pretty low in comparison to methods?

[appleandbee]

Thanks guys

But how come Specialist is pretty low in comparison to methods?

Fewer students do Spesh compared to methods (4000-5000), which means a higher percentage of the Spesh cohort are competent maths students, but with only the same percentage of students as in methods getting a certain band of grades (eg. 35 and above, 40 and above).  Generally around a 37-38.5/40 is required for an A+ in Exam 1 and 72-74/80 for an A+ in Exam 2, A+ in both exams will generally yield a 39+ study score as long as SACS are reasonably good. In methods the A+ cut-offs are lower 35-37/40 for exam 1 and 65-68/80 for exam 2. So yeah, getting a 40+ raw score is Spesh is competitive but scaling makes up for the disparity, which would make your Methods and Spesh score after scaling, quite similar in the end.

[Rod]

Depends on the difficulty of the exam, if it’s on the easier end 43-44 sounds reasonable (maybe 45) judging from friends that scored in the high 40s. It’s also not just about the total marks lost; it’s about the number of marks lost in each exam, as exam 2 has a higher weighting than exam one.

Ahhh good point (Y)

[Orb]

Methods is a difficult subject to measure.

2013 (in arguably one of the most difficult years), losing 8 marks was sufficient for 47/48 with full scaled SACs.

2008 or maybe 2009? (in one of the easiest years), losing 8 marks was around 42

Personally last year (2014) I dropped 11 and got 42, so losing 8 would be around ~44

[Zealous]

2013 (in arguably one of the most difficult years), losing 8 marks was sufficient for 47/48 with full scaled SACs.

Maybe not thaaat many marks, I lost around 5 and got a 48 with full scaled SACs. But it's true, methods has done funny things in recent years (scaling over 50 and exam difficulty) so it can be difficult to predict study scores.

If anyone is bored here's a graph to play with (for 2013): https://www.desmos.com/calculator/kxpfx9qu2c

So yeah, getting a 40+ raw score is Spesh is competitive but scaling makes up for the disparity, which would make your Methods and Spesh score after scaling, quite similar in the end.

Yep absolutely right! After scaling I ended up with very similar scores for both the subjects.

The difficulty of the Spesh exams has been pretty annoying though. They're not as difficult as they should be and VCAA gives away many marks. I found the 2013 Methods exams harder than my 2014 Spesh exams.. in recent years you could almost say Specialist has just become Further but with scaling to 55 because 1 mark can cost you a study score when you need over 73/80 for an A+.

[biy]

Are you guys talking about losing marks as a combination of both exams, or just losing 8 marks on both exams, each?

[cosine]

Chemistry:

Unit 3 Average: 80%
Unit 4 Average: 75%
Exam score: 90/120