Clearly in 2013 predictions

[Shenz0r]

Predicting Biomed cut-off to be anywhere between 98.50-99.10.

[noodles123]

What about arts??

[Starlight]

What about arts??

I think the atar will move up from last year

[thushan]

Arts - 92 I reckon based on this tweet.
Science - 90 (stays round the same?)
Commerce - 95
Biomedicine - 99.00 I reckon
Environments - 85

Here's a thought experiment:

What would predicted cutoffs for these courses be if all Aussie unis had a two-tiered Melbourne Model-like structure?

[Hancock]

If all uni's had a bologna model structure, then it becomes less about course preferences, and more about environmental factors such as campus location and lifestyle. IMO, I'd reckon Melbourne's ATAR requirements would:

Go up a tad for Science (due to Engineering, I know a lot of people put off about the 5 year model)
Go up for Arts (due to lack of Law at Monash)
Stay constant for Commerce because it's a standalone 3 year degree
Stay constant for Environments (because UoM won't drop it below 85)
Biomed would remain, or go up IMO due to all med courses would be post-grad.

[rebeckab]

If all uni's had a bologna model structure, then it becomes less about course preferences, and more about environmental factors such as campus location and lifestyle. IMO, I'd reckon Melbourne's ATAR requirements would:

Go up a tad for Science (due to Engineering, I know a lot of people put off about the 5 year model)
Go up for Arts (due to lack of Law at Monash)
Stay constant for Commerce because it's a standalone 3 year degree
Stay constant for Environments (because UoM won't drop it below 85)
Biomed would remain, or go up IMO due to all med courses would be post-grad.

Agree with this, and I think Biomed would definitely go up due to all med being post-grad. Melbourne Uni is prettier than Monash after all hahah

[thushan]

If all uni's had a bologna model structure, then it becomes less about course preferences, and more about environmental factors such as campus location and lifestyle. IMO, I'd reckon Melbourne's ATAR requirements would:

Go up a tad for Science (due to Engineering, I know a lot of people put off about the 5 year model)
Go up for Arts (due to lack of Law at Monash)
Stay constant for Commerce because it's a standalone 3 year degree
Stay constant for Environments (because UoM won't drop it below 85)
Biomed would remain, or go up IMO due to all med courses would be post-grad.

And prestige?

[Planck's constant]

As things stand, I can't see UoM clearly-ins going up this year, because they are already close to their physical limit.
There are approx 50,000 VCE students each year, of which 5,000 achieve a 90+ ATAR, and 4000+ of those already go to UoM (going by 2012 admission stats).

[Lasercookie]

As things stand, I can't see UoM clearly-ins going up this year, because they are already close to their physical limit.
There are approx 50,000 VCE students each year, of which 5,000 achieve a 90+ ATAR, and 4000+ of those already go to UoM (going by 2012 admission stats).

Doesn't that 4000 that got admitted to UoM include people that were under the clearly-in too?

[Planck's constant]

Doesn't that 4000 that got admitted to UoM include people that were under the clearly-in too?

It's easy enough to estimate how many are 90+ because the admission stats tell you how many are below clearly-in.
For instance, for Biomed admissions, very few of the below clearly ins are actually below 90, whereas for science, nearly all the below clearly- ins are less than 90.

Bottom line, the overwhelming majority of 90+ in the state already go to UoM, leaving little room for clearly- in hikes

[KevinooBz]

http://bcom.unimelb.edu.au/apply/entry_requirements. That says commerce clearly in is 95 for 2013. Also found one for biomed which says 96(guide only). Would the commerce ATAR be a guide as well?

[aaackk]

http://bcom.unimelb.edu.au/apply/entry_requirements. That says commerce clearly in is 95 for 2013. Also found one for biomed which says 96(guide only). Would the commerce ATAR be a guide as well?

the 95.00 guaranteed entry score for commerce is also listed here on the left:
http://coursesearch.unimelb.edu.au/undergrad/1507-bachelor-of-commerce

and here, when you scroll down the 95.00:
http://cop.unimelb.edu.au/where-will-my-atar-take-me/index.html

So I think the 'guaranteed entry score' is pretty guaranteed and not a guide, or else the commerce department is going to be in for a world of complaints haha

[John President]

It's easy enough to estimate how many are 90+ because the admission stats tell you how many are below clearly-in.
For instance, for Biomed admissions, very few of the below clearly ins are actually below 90, whereas for science, nearly all the below clearly- ins are less than 90.

Bottom line, the overwhelming majority of 90+ in the state already go to UoM, leaving little room for clearly- in hikes

I don't think it's an "overwhelming" majority - I read somewhere that Monash have the highest percentage of 99+ students - but as I don't have any statistics on hand, I can't really say much more.

[Smiley_]

Here's a thought experiment:

What would predicted cutoffs for these courses be if all Aussie unis had a two-tiered Melbourne Model-like structure?

I'm really glad that they aren't

[Professor Polonsky]

I'm going to predict that there won't be an increase in Arts.

In 2011/12, 2738 had Arts as their 1st preference, 1420 as 2nd preference and 957 as 3rd preference.

In 2012/13, 2822 have Arts as their 1st preference, 1448 as 2nd preference and 951 as 3rd preference.

This is a small increase. If we compare to Science, a degree with relatively similar numbers:

In 2011/12, 2160 had Science as their 1st preference, 1526 as their 2nd preference and 898 as their 3rd preference.

In 2012/13, 2345 have Science as their 1st preference, 1638 as their 2nd preference and 893 as their 3rd preference.

If anything, Science should increase more.