Tony Abbott's National Press Club Speech

[thushan]

What do you guys think of it? I wish he explained his logic. And not this shit again about "Labor overspending"...

[Professor Polonsky]

He blamed Labor, admitted he was wrong on PPL and Knightmare, blamed Labor some more, said he's a great PM, blamed Labor some more and said he's going to try to improve.

I really don't think he said anything newsworthy, other than essentially burying PPL. The 'confident' image, with him being (at least partly) on the offensive, might help his numbers - but I doubt it'll be significant.

[mahler004]

He blamed Labor, admitted he was wrong on PPL and Knightmare, blamed Labor some more, said he's a great PM, blamed Labor some more and said he's going to try to improve.

I really don't think he said anything newsworthy, other than essentially burying PPL. The 'confident' image, with him being (at least partly) on the offensive, might help his numbers - but I doubt it'll be significant.

This is an accurate summary. I actually felt that he didn't sound too confident - he definitely knows he's in trouble in the party room, and unless he does something dramatic, soon, he's done for. A couple of soundbites which will come back to bite him - in particular, the one about people electing Labor governments in a fit of irrationality.

An interesting fact - he only referred to 'the Abbott government.' Scott Morrison didn't stop the boats, the Abbott government stopped the boats. The only exception was when he referred to Julie Bishop by name, thanking her for her work in securing the release of Peter Greste.

[Russ]

Yeah, it was interesting. I think the thing that's most likely to be an issue is running the reelection campaign like the last one. Pitching the party as a better alternative to the ALP was perfectly fine when every swinging voter in the country was desperate to avoid voting for the RGR mess. 4 years later, they're going to be going in the other direction in droves.

I forget who said it, but recently there was the point made that the LNP position themselves as the slightly less popular but more competent party, which is an image that has been significantly tarnished by the consistent antagonism of the electorate so far. Still not sure what the ALP is actually offering as an alternative but the bar isn't particularly high right now.

[MDMA]

Apparently he has until the end of the week to turn it all around before he gets the Gillardflick

[thushan]

Oh! Source?

[Aaron]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-03/warren-entsch-plans-resolution-of-tony-abbott-leadership-drama/6066842

What I thought was even more interesting was that a Liberal MP decided to publically go on the record and call for him to resign. Hes got balls, i'll give him that. The interview is on that page.

Another interesting point:

Queensland backbencher Warren Entsch said he would seek a resolution to the issue at the next partyroom meeting, which takes place next week before Parliament resumes.

Next week could be the end of Tony Abbott's leadership. Although no-one has publically said they'll challenge him for it.

[mahler004]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-03/warren-entsch-plans-resolution-of-tony-abbott-leadership-drama/6066842

What I thought was even more interesting was that a Liberal MP decided to publically go on the record and call for him to resign. Hes got balls, i'll give him that. The interview is on that page.

Another interesting point:

Next week could be the end of Tony Abbott's leadership. Although no-one has publically said they'll challenge him for it.

Now two. Possibly three, if you include Mal Brough (who gave the PM some rather meek support in a press conference today.) Fairfax papers are now reporting that up to 30 Liberal MPs don't support the PM (no names.) If you've got backbenchers publicly breaking ranks (instead of merely sending confidential text messages to journalists,) you've got a big problem. To put it simply, I don't see a way out for the Coalition that doesn't involve a change of leader or losing the 2016 election.

Rumours are posting to a spill early next week, when the party meets after the summer break. The best solution would be for Abbott to be convinced that he no longer has the numbers, to step down peacefully, and retire to a nice foreign posting. I hear Singapore is nice.

[vox nihili]

Was a bit rough to expect Abbott to turn around the whole ship on the back of a speech. The chances of Abbott coming out with a ripper speech were always slim with his completely incapacity to speak in public and sound more intelligent than a chimpanzee at the same time.

[Professor Polonsky]

I forget who said it, but recently there was the point made that the LNP position themselves as the slightly less popular but more competent party, which is an image that has been significantly tarnished by the consistent antagonism of the electorate so far. Still not sure what the ALP is actually offering as an alternative but the bar isn't particularly high right now.

It's still a while before the election, but I do hope that the ALP will present a 'big picture' policy ambition rather than 'feel-good' promises. While the latter sometimes are all you need (see: Vic election),

Then again, maybe not. Commonwealth revenues do need to go up, and the best way to do it would be either tightening the tax code or increasing income tax. The voters aren't going to like that.

Now two. Possibly three, if you include Mal Brough (who gave the PM some rather meek support in a press conference today.) Fairfax papers are now reporting that up to 30 Liberal MPs don't support the PM (no names.) If you've got backbenchers publicly breaking ranks (instead of merely sending confidential text messages to journalists,) you've got a big problem. To put it simply, I don't see a way out for the Coalition that doesn't involve a change of leader or losing the 2016 election.

Rumours are posting to a spill early next week, when the party meets after the summer break. The best solution would be for Abbott to be convinced that he no longer has the numbers, to step down peacefully, and retire to a nice foreign posting. I hear Singapore is nice.

Fairfax has been drumming up a spill for a while, including running those Bishop/Turnbull articles a few days ago while they're obviously convinced that Abbott still has the numbers. As much as I'd love it, I can't see a Lib challenging before they're certain they have the numbers.

[Russ]

Was a bit rough to expect Abbott to turn around the whole ship on the back of a speech. The chances of Abbott coming out with a ripper speech were always slim with his completely incapacity to speak in public and sound more intelligent than a chimpanzee at the same time.

How very tacky and tasteless.

It's still a while before the election, but I do hope that the ALP will present a 'big picture' policy ambition rather than 'feel-good' promises. While the latter sometimes are all you need (see: Vic election),

Then again, maybe not. Commonwealth revenues do need to go up, and the best way to do it would be either tightening the tax code or increasing income tax. The voters aren't going to like that.

I think the ALP are doing the same thing that was done to them at the last election and sitting tight and not putting a foot wrong. It's a bad sign for the future in general, but when the strategy of not being as disliked as the government is so good, you can't really blame them. It may come back to bite them when they eventually need to present policy but they traditionally present more popular options anyway.

[vox nihili]

How very tacky and tasteless.

Oh don't be such a snob, it was clearly hyperbole -.- The point still remains. Abbott isn't a good public speaker and he's never been particularly bold in his public experiences, so expecting him to have really made a significant change to his fortunes on the back of a speech was unreasonable.

[Professor Polonsky]

I think the ALP are doing the same thing that was done to them at the last election and sitting tight and not putting a foot wrong. It's a bad sign for the future in general, but when the strategy of not being as disliked as the government is so good, you can't really blame them. It may come back to bite them when they eventually need to present policy but they traditionally present more popular options anyway.

Well, it is very early - have Oppositions in Australia generally put up alternative policies over 18 months before the election? I'd expect policies to start propping up . If it ends up like Real Solutions, then you'd have a point. If it ends up like 2014 Vic elections, then they'd have coherent policy, just not necessarily a long-term vision.

[90+FTW]

That's his bloody fall-back though. When things aren't going right for the Liberals, they blame the Labour party for anything. In doing so, they're able to deflect any of the bad attention placed on their behaviour. 

I hope he does get the "Gillardflick." Time will only tell but I doubt that Abbott will survive the next election if he continues this way.

[Russ]

Well, it is very early - have Oppositions in Australia generally put up alternative policies over 18 months before the election? I'd expect policies to start propping up . If it ends up like Real Solutions, then you'd have a point. If it ends up like 2014 Vic elections, then they'd have coherent policy, just not necessarily a long-term vision.

Yeah, it's obviously not reasonable for them to have their costed policies out or whatever, but I have a sneaking feeling that their position has been based on the campaign that was run against them so successfully at the last election. A lot of the stuff they've been doing reminds me of that to some extent (bingo cards, slogans about the LNP's unfair budget etc.). It'll be interested to see what happens!

Oh don't be such a snob, it was clearly hyperbole -.- The point still remains. Abbott isn't a good public speaker and he's never been particularly bold in his public experiences, so expecting him to have really made a significant change to his fortunes on the back of a speech was unreasonable.

I'm sure you took the same stance over the Gillard/Witch banners. I just find it amusing that nobody minds making offensive comments about TA, because he's a right wing MP. Sorry for being a snob and telling you not to call him a chimp.