aggregate?

[99.95]

do you think the ATAR aggregate will increase or decrease from last year?

[Juddinator]

It depends on how the top students of 2010, as the aggregate will begin from there, which is the ATAR score of 99.95, then 99.90 etc

[tram]

does anyone know what the trend has been like over the last coupple years?? i.e. do you now need a higher or lower aggregate in the range of 99+???

[vea]

does anyone know what the trend has been like over the last coupple years?? i.e. do you now need a higher or lower aggregate in the range of 99+???

I think lower aggregates are required in the range of 99+ compared to previous years. This is due to the reduce in scaling past 50 of many of the subjects taken by 99+ students including spesh (54->52) and chinese similarly.

[appianway]

It changes every year though. You can't really say it'll be lower this year. Your only sure way of getting 99.95 is to get all 50s, a 5.5 in UMEP and to do Latin (with a high 40s result).

[EvangelionZeta]

My prediction (based on knowledge of the 2010 cohort as a whole) is that the 99.95 cutoff this year is going to be a bit lower than usual.  Won't give specific reasons as to why, but I was pretty on the mark with the 99.95s from 2009, just saying.  :p

[m@tty]

What's 'usual'? Are you referring to the 210 from the past? Or the recent 209.3/209.1 ?

[EvangelionZeta]

The 210 from the past.  I think it'll be a bit less than the recent 209.3/209.1 if Spesh scaling stays the same (it shouldn't go down), and will be around 209.3 if it goes back to its 2008 value.

[tram]

It changes every year though. You can't really say it'll be lower this year. Your only sure way of getting 99.95 is to get all 50s, a 5.5 in UMEP and to do Latin (with a high 40s result).

pfft, you know, no biggie or anything

[appianway]

Hey EvangelionZeta, I'm really curious about your reasons. Care to share?

[EvangelionZeta]

Not as many "all-rounders" as last year (ie. people who can ace English and three other subjects or get an ace score with high scaling) at the usual hotspot schools.  Maths in particular seems to be suffering a little bit in this year outside of a couple of Olympiad kids.

[Juddinator]

EvangelionZeta, if you are correct does this affect the whole aggregate of ATAR scores then? So an ATAR of 90+ could be lower than last years?

[EvangelionZeta]

Not so sure about the whole aggregate to be honest; my prediction (if it's even accurate) only really affects the very top.  I can't imagine the 90+ cutoff changing significantly though, since it's generally quite stable.

[tram]

hmmmm, intersting theory ez......

[appianway]

AzureBlue, you should probably remove the names as it's supposed to remain confidential until June 1. I'm pretty sure they've all done methods though, and one's already done spesh.

Olympiad kids are reasonably well represented in the sciences though (well, there's 5 for all three I*Os). I think 4 of the bunch are doing methods this year.