core Q11 - seasonal or not?

[jsimmo]

ok so based on all that pretty sure the answer was E, and yet most of us put D. danggit!!


Yeah, the fact that there was no de/seasonilsation in the multi-choice makes me think it's very likely it will feature significantly in short answer
 

...good point. study up deseasonalising!! oh and there were no transformations either. or contour maps, or break even analysis, or stem and leaf plots... hmm!!

yepp.. i also am expecting a lot of questions regarding 3 median regression lines, deseasonalisation, residuals and transformations!

since there will be 5 questions (95% certain) for core you can expect them to probablly include all of the stuff that wasn't in exam 1 in exam 2.

[hilal]

contour maths will be included for sureee..
there was NOTHINGGGGG on exam which.. which at the time made me think YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS =DD but now.. im like blahh.. would of had a 25% chance of getting the correct answer. now with short answer. its either you know it or you dont.

goodluck guys!

[miss_muffiny]

oh yeh and for those who do geometry and trigonometry... preeeeeeeeeeetty sure there will be some on similar triangles/shapes - the more confusing part of trig :|

[hilal]

seriously they better make this second exam more easier. but i guess we will have to wait and see..

[miss_muffiny]

well it seems that the overwhelming majority of people here found exam 1 more difficult than expected/previous years, so perhaps the difficulty won't make toooooooooo much of a difference because we'll be scaled up/down according to how everyone else did. just makes people like me who wer hoping for 50 feel pretty shit right now haha

[Noblesse]

just makes people like me who wer hoping for 50 feel pretty shit right now haha

hehe, that's an understatement. oh well gotta move on. don't get depressed now or you WILL screw up further maths!
VCEnotes nerd-power activate!

[miss_muffiny]

haha yeh im over it now. bring on exam 2. i wanna tame this bitch and put it behind me. further was just gonna be my 6th subject anyways.

oi ive checked out some of the other subjects forums, and for specialist maths they were saying it was WAAAAAAAAY harder than previous years and all the practice exams... could be an overall step up in difficulty throughout the subjects??

hope it gets easier again next year haha coz it'll be my turn.

[Noblesse]

haha yeh im over it now. bring on exam 2. i wanna tame this bitch and put it behind me. further was just gonna be my 6th subject anyways.

oi ive checked out some of the other subjects forums, and for specialist maths they were saying it was WAAAAAAAAY harder than previous years and all the practice exams... could be an overall step up in difficulty throughout the subjects??

hope it gets easier again next year haha coz it'll be my turn.

Of course this is pure speculation, but apparently there has been more and more talk of a joint education Curriculum   (Australia wide), maybe VCAA is pulling out all the harsh questions to prove us Victorians are the best and the VCE is super awesome.

[julezian]

wow that would be so hard to implement.. lol
everyone has such different education systems..

anyway... totes havent heard of anyone whos got 40/40
(if you have shh)
so maybe theres hope

im kinda bummed coz i wanted to kill further so i didnt have to try so hard in chem :S
sigh.. ~nao i hav 2 studieee~
oh well

[b]

how could it categorically be said that there is not a seasonal factor causing the peaks and troughs?

[AQ]

OMG THERE WAS NO SEASONAL TREND!!!!!!!!!!!!

CALCULATE EVERY 2 MONTHS AND YOU'LL SEE NO PATTERN GOING ON!@!!!!!!

THE ANSWER IS E!!!!!!!!!

[jsimmo]

how could it categorically be said that there is not a seasonal factor causing the peaks and troughs?

Read what Roxxii said:

For a time series to be seasonal, there needs to be a regular time interval between each peak.
Yes, you can ASSUME that there is a regular cycle of every 6 months, peaking every May and Nov (month 5 and 11)
But we are only given one year of data, and there is only ONE interval between the peaks.
There is no indication how many months there will be between the peak at month 11 and the next peak (if there is a peak at all)
Thus you cannot come to the conclusion that it is seasonal with the information given to us.

If there were AT LEAST 3 peaks, so 2 intervals in between...and the intervals had the same number of months, then it would be reasonable to assume the trend is seasonal.